Dems May End Up Kicking Themselves With What the Data Now Says About Michigan Senate Race
Democrats voted, just barely, to make Abdul El-Sayed their Democrat nominee for the Senate from Michigan.
They could have voted for Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11), who is still pretty left, but voting for El-Sayed reveals how off the rails a lot of the Democrats are.
That said, there are still a lot of Democrats who are not buying what El-Sayed is selling.
🚨 UPDATE: Democrat voters in Michigan are JUMPING SHIP, saying they will NOT vote for “Abdul” El Sayed — a socialist
“I will not vote Democrat. I’LL SWITCH OVER!”
Another voter: “I am VERY concerned about the socialist aspect of Abdul…I’m a liberal, NOT a socialist.”
WOW! pic.twitter.com/riJx2ZYkUn
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 5, 2026
Even MS NOW had to acknowledge they were hearing from Democrats who were going to vote for Rogers because El-Sayed won.
🚨 WOW! MSNOW is now PANICKING after Democrat voters told her they’re voting Mike Rogers (R) because Abdul El Sayed (D) became the MI Senate nominee
“Some Democrats I’ve talked to…on the plane this morning a guy said to me, ‘I’m anxious…’ he said, ‘I voted for Haley… https://t.co/MweVr8G4bb pic.twitter.com/iuEXdhiAyL
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 5, 2026
As my colleague Sister Toldjah reported:
The Manhattan Institute’s Jesse Arm observed that “We’ve seen data that suggests large numbers of Stevens voters would not necessarily support El-Sayed over Rogers in November.” He urged the Rogers campaign to capitalize on it, predicting that if they did, “There’ll be lots of Democrats for Rogers. Probably more than any Michigan GOP Senate candidate has had since Spencer Abraham.”
Now that’s going to have an impact. There hasn’t been a Republican U.S. senator from Michigan in 26 years. The chances on that reversing just went up. Democrats can look at Mike Rogers’ record since he was a U.S. representative, and they know he’s not an extremist.
CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten pointed out another problem that El-Sayed had: in the primary, the places he ran up the numbers were white college areas. He was not doing well in black and working-class areas.
CNN: Abdul El-Sayed “did very poorly” with working-class and African American voters, and “really just” ran up the score in college towns. pic.twitter.com/MQJ40T46QW
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) August 5, 2026
Listen as Enten explains that now, the chance of Democrats winning has dropped dramatically “into Lake Michigan.”
Dems’ chances in Mich Senate are down dramatically since earlier this year.
On Tuesday, El-Sayed showed little working class appeal (e.g. lost all 15 counties with lowest % of coll. degrees).
The big polling miss makes me wonder: will general election polls overestimate him? pic.twitter.com/wlSK6R6Ffy
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 6, 2026
While El-Sayed still had an edge, there were a lot more questions. As Enten explained, “On Tuesday, El-Sayed showed little working-class appeal (e.g., lost all 15 counties with lowest percentage of college degrees).”
That wasn’t the only worry. As Enten noted, the polling messed up and overestimated El-Sayed by about 10 points. Now the polling with Mike Rogers is tight. If they’re still overestimating El-Sayed, he could be in big trouble.
Decision Desk Headquarters (DDHQ) has now changed it from a “lean Democrat” race to a “toss-up.”
DDHQ ratings change
US Senate Michigan 2026
Lean D—>Toss-up pic.twitter.com/vNQtWXTA1V
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) August 6, 2026
The Economist even went a step further, saying the odds were now with Mike Rogers.
🚨 NOW – MICHIGAN 2026 SENATE FORECAST, The Economist:
Odds of victory [shift from before the primary]:
🔴 Mike Rogers: 52% [+5.8]
🔵 Abdul El Sayed: 48% [-5.8]
✅ Net shift of 11.6 points for RogersVote share:
🔴 Mike Rogers: 50.2% (+0.4)
🔵 Abdul El Sayed: 49.8%MAKE IT… pic.twitter.com/MsixE69ONV
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 6, 2026
So that’s all looking good for Rogers and the Republicans.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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