How Europe can compete with the US and China on AI
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Europe’s path to leadership lies not in outspending the United States or China in the race to build ever-larger frontier models, but in playing to its unique strengths.
If Europe chases AI spend without focus, it will play the wrong game expensively. There is another race, where what matters is not how much companies spend or how powerful their models are, but what they get back from using them.
In this race, developing the most powerful model doesn’t make you a winner; providing specialist models that cost-efficiently fit the purpose of specific tasks will. This is where the race is heading. This is the game Europe should play, and is built to win.
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Europe’s more than two centuries of industrial development, combined with even longer traditions of precision engineering, science and high-end craftsmanship, have produced an advantage that is almost impossible to replicate quickly: extraordinary concentrations of proprietary knowledge, high-quality operational data and domain expertise.
These assets create the foundation for AI systems that are far more knowledgeable about a specific industry, company, process or regulatory environment than general-purpose intelligence alone can be. As general-purpose AI become increasingly capable and interchangeable for many tasks, those advantages will matter more, not less.
Europe’s industrial companies and institutions hold decades of engineering data, designs, maintenance histories, R&D and operational know-how that cannot be recreated through compute scale or capital investment alone.
The importance of specialist AI
This is where Specialist AI comes in. Intelligence built around the specific knowledge, data, workflows and constraints of an industry or organization, using the right combination of models and infrastructure for the task.
The assumption that bigger is always better is outdated and demonstrably costly. If every AI tool inside a company ends up routing all requests to an expensive frontier model, all business problems get solved with a frontier model whether they need one or not. Rewrite an email? Use the frontier model. Debug code? Use the frontier model. Summarize documents, draft memos, analyze spreadsheets? Use the frontier model again.
Our research shows that one in three organizations exhaust their token budgets before year-end, while less than 20% of that spend can be tied to a measurable financial return. The solution? Reserve the most powerful AI for work that truly needs it and use smaller, more specialized models for everything else. Our analysis across more than 9,000 tasks also found that roughly 90% did not require frontier-model capability.
The opportunity is about much more than cost control. What matters is not only how much each token costs, but where strategic knowledge resides, who controls it, which models can access it, under which jurisdiction it operates, and how dependent companies become on any single external provider.
Long-term strategic autonomy, rather than dependence on any single region’s frontier models, is a more resilient industrial strategy.
Data sensitivity, regulation and operational specificity
This is particularly relevant in sectors such as defense, finance, healthcare and the public sector, where data sensitivity, regulation and operational specificity matter. These industries do not always need the most advanced general-purpose model. They often need reliable, auditable and specialized systems that understand their domain. In these contexts, local and in-house models may be not only sufficient, but preferable.
The European Patent Office already processes 400,000 pages a day on a purpose-built one-billion-parameter model at under one percent error. That is not a consolation prize. That is a blueprint for how European industry should be building.
Companies should therefore broaden their thinking beyond one model or one supplier. Frontier models for the most complex tasks; specialized, local or in-house models for repeatable, domain-specific and sensitive workloads.
Europe does not need a bigger hammer. It needs a better toolbox. Europe should stop trying to become Silicon Valley. Its advantage lies in turning the industrial knowledge Silicon Valley cannot replicate into AI the world cannot easily produce.
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