Russian Military Advances Near Dobropolye (Dobropillia) – JP
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Russian forces are moving farther into Ukraine, consolidating gains and working to control new territory. We have reported for some time that Russian ground units are advancing, despite Ukrainian long-range strikes deep inside the Russian Federation.
Reports are a Russian forward group from the 2nd Combined Arms Army, supported by tanks and BMPs, entered and dug in on the eastern side of Dobropolye. Assault units of the 51st Army bypassed from the north and cut the Dobropolye–Kramatorsk road. This local sector is being supported from the south, where Russian DRGs (sabotage-reconnaissance groups), again backed by various equipment, have filled the gray zones between Myrne and Chernihivka south of Dobropolye. The advance is quite fast and aggressive, and the Ukrainians still can’t figure out whether this is a serious breakthrough or just the Russians testing them. The Ukrainians have a problem with a shortage of experienced drone units in this area, and the Russians exploited that by bringing in a lot of equipment.
Right now the city is effectively in a semi-encirclement: the Russians have already taken part of the eastern built-up area and seized control of Ukrainian logistics in the sector. Russian positions themselves are quite advantageous here; they can maneuver relatively quickly and easily with drone units, artillery, and frontline aviation (which is almost fully covered). In this area the Russians effectively hold an 80–100 km arc, and Ukrainian artillery and aviation cannot reach them.
On the other hand, the Russians pulled assault groups back from the northeast of Sloviansk, and the Ukrainians suspect they decided not to take the city head-on. But the Ukrainians, as usual, are just guessing. Maybe it’s a luring tactic, as you say.
Russian maneuvering around the entire Sloviansk–Kramatorsk area — from Dobropolye all the way to the border with Kharkiv oblast — is a complete mystery to everyone. It’s known that roughly seven armies are involved, two of them tank armies. But subunits from these armies are constantly present from north to south, and it’s impossible to predict when or where any particular unit will appear.
Analysts don’t know whether they’re doing this on purpose or simply don’t give a damn about Ukrainian propaganda, but in the fighting on the southern part of the salient the Ukrainians constantly report the presence of the 90th Guards Tank Division — the same one they themselves claimed to have completely destroyed near Kyiv in 2022 (supposedly almost 90 % of its personnel).
Russian oil exports
This week the Russians hit an absolute maximum for seaborne oil exports in the 2020s: 4.15 million barrels per day.
Keep in mind that oil is trading above $100 per barrel.
In just 1 week, 37 tankers carried out nearly 28М barrels – an absolute record of the decade.