This Could Be The Number One Factor That Decides The 2024 Presidential Election ⋆ JP


A lot of people consider the 2024 election to be simply a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but that isn’t going to be the case.  Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has already announced that he is running as an independent, and polls have shown that a lot of Americans are willing to support him.  And now there is a tremendous amount of buzz that Joe Manchin could soon join the race as the “No Labels” candidate, and if he does run he is suggesting that he would ask Mitt Romney to be his running mate.  Needless to say, such a development would really shake up the race.

In this election cycle, millions of Americans have indicated that they would be open to voting for someone other than Biden or Trump…

And while two-thirds (67 percent) of Americans say that they are generally “tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new” according to a recent JP/Ipsos poll, the problems are deeper than that and speak to the significant impediment each candidate faces.

Indeed, majorities of Americans say they would be “very” or “somewhat dissatisfied” with both Trump (58 percent) and Biden (56 percent) as the nominees, per AP-NORC Research Center polling.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the same poll shows just how unpopular both candidates are, with six in 10 (60 percent) Americans viewing Trump unfavorably, and a similar 54 percent having an unfavorable view of President Biden.

I cannot remember a time when both major party candidates were viewed so unfavorably.

So this really is a golden opportunity for someone else to jump in and try to pull off something that normally would be impossible.

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 election?

For months, there has been speculation that Joe Manchin would run for president as the “No Labels” candidate.  When asked about this on Thursday, he openly admitted that “everything is on the table”…

“Third party run, everything is on the table,” Manchin said in response to a question from NBC News. “Nothing’s off the table. I’m still evaluating all that. Super Tuesday [March 5] pretty much would be a deadline that tells you where you are.”

Manchin’s daughter has launched a group, Americans Together, that could be a vehicle for such preparations. The senator’s Cleveland visit was part of a new series of appearances set to include Columbus, Ohio, later Thursday. Manchin also is scheduled to address the Detroit Economic Club on Feb. 26 — the day before the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan.

To me, it sounds like he has already made his decision.

In any event, I think that he will publicly reveal what he is going to do some time in the first half of March.

If Manchin does not choose to run for some reason, it is always possible that No Labels could settle on another candidate.

But right now he is their guy, and on Thursday Manchin also told the press that if he had to pick a running mate right now it would be Mitt Romney…

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., said he’d pick Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, or former Ohio Republican Sen. Rob Portman as potential running mates in a hypothetical third-party presidential run.

“Hypothetically, if I was picking my running mate… really, who I would ask right now is Mitt Romney,” Manchin said Thursday at the City Club of Cleveland breakfast forum.

“Maybe Rob Portman would be right there, too,” Manchin added. “Rob is a dear friend of mine. What a good man, what a good man.”

Since Manchin is a moderate Democrat, he would almost certainly pick a moderate Republican to be his running mate.

And last week Manchin and Romney actually joked that they “are a ticket”…

As for Romney, Manchin has previously joked about teaming up with him. During votes in the Senate last week, Romney said as he was walking with Manchin: “We are a ticket. There’s no question we are.”

“We are, he wants to be the not stupid party,” Manchin said.

“We’re taking a cognitive test right now, Romney added. “So we’ll let you know.”

Ultimately, I don’t think that Manchin and Romney would have a prayer of actually winning the election.

But their presence in the race could be a huge factor in determining the outcome.

Biden’s support is far softer than Trump’s support is, and so Manchin would likely take more votes away from Biden than he would from Trump.

If you doubt this, just consider the following poll results from Michigan…

Supporters of Joe Biden are more willing to break with their candidate than those backing Donald Trump when third party candidates are added to the mix in Michigan’s 2024 race, according to a new damning poll for the president.

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with Biden, former President Trump wins by only a margin of 2 percent – 47 percent to 45 percent.

But that gap widens to 11 percent when three other third-party candidates are considered in the general election, according to a Fox News survey of Michigan voters.

Just look at those numbers.

In the key swing state of Michigan, Trump barely has a lead in a hypothetical matchup with Biden.

But in a race with more than two candidates, it is a blowout for Trump.

This is why Democrats have been fighting so hard against everything that No Labels has been trying to do.

They are desperate to keep Manchin out of the race.

But of course there is no guarantee that Biden will even be the Democratic nominee by the time we get to November.

At this point he is really struggling both physically and mentally, and there has been a lot of speculation that he may ultimately have to be replaced.

But if such a decision comes after the Democratic National Convention, things could get really crazy for the Democrats…

While a Biden pre-convention withdrawal would make for quite a spectacle, things would really get wild if Biden were to be nominated at the convention only to subsequently die, resign or be disabled. In that scenario, party rules direct the party chair to “confer with the Democratic leadership of the … Congress and the Democratic Governors Association” and then report to the approximately 450-member Democratic National Committee, which would then choose a new nominee.

The chaos wouldn’t be confined to the Democratic Party: States would be forced to scramble to produce new ballots. Ballots for overseas military service members are shipped just a couple weeks after the late-August Democratic convention, and in-person voting kicks off on Sept. 20 in Minnesota and South Dakota.

It is going to be such a wild year.

I am convinced that it will be the most chaotic election cycle that any of us have ever seen, and I believe that it will set the stage for even greater chaos afterwards.

To me, it sounds like Manchin has already decided to run, and I think that there is a very good chance that Romney will join him on the ticket.

If that actually happens, it will be really bad news for the Democrats, because it would make a Biden defeat in November much more likely.

Cross-posted with Sons of Liberty Media


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