Fox News Poll Shows Major Movement In Texas Senate Race
A new Fox News poll of Texas likely voters finds Democratic Party nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton tied at 49 percent each in the state’s closely-watched U.S. Senate race. This represents a change from the network’s September survey, in which Talarico held a 51 percent to 49 percent advantage among likely voters.
The October poll was conducted from October 15-19 among a sample of 2,011 registered voters, of whom 1,398 were identified as likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for the likely-voter subsample.
The movement from a two-point Talarico lead to a tie is associated with gains by Paxton among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women, and Republicans who supported Cornyn in the primary. Compared with the September Fox News poll, Paxton’s support rose by one point among both men and women, while Talarico’s support fell by one point among men and two points among women.
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A two-point lead has disappeared in the Texas Senate race, with new Fox News polling showing Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton now tied.@BillHemmer breaks down the numbers, noting Talarico held a slight advantage just a month ago.
With a margin of error of 2.5… pic.twitter.com/QYNd7Zfrm4
— Fox News (@FoxNews) October 22, 2026
Talarico retains clear advantages with several groups. He leads by 65 points among Black voters, 29 points among urban voters, 28 points among those under age 30, and 23 points among women with a college degree.
In addition, Hispanic voters favor Talarico 64 percent to 34 percent, the poll found.
Paxton leads by 52 points among White evangelical Christians, 32 points among White men without a college degree, 21 points among rural voters, and 18 points among voters age 65 and older. Party support is higher for Talarico among Democrats (98 percent) than for Paxton among Republicans (90 percent).
Other recent surveys show a comparable narrowing of Talarico’s earlier margins. A University of Houston Hobby School poll of 2,000 likely voters found Talarico at 48 percent and Paxton at 46 percent, with three percent supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and three percent undecided.
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 1,000 likely voters showed Talarico at 48-49 percent and Paxton at 46-48 percent depending on the treatment of undecided respondents. CBS News/YouGov and ActiVote polls each recorded a 51-49 Talarico lead, while a Marist survey showed 47-45.
Aggregates such as the RealClearPolitics average place Talarico approximately 1.5 points ahead. In mid-to-late September, multiple polls registered Talarico leads of four to six points, indicating compression of the margin in subsequent surveys.
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