Extreme weather expert Dr. Roger Pielke: ‘Actual fire on the landscape in South France measured as area burned has not increased, & arguably has decreased’
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/three-hard-truths-about-frances-wildfires
Worse fire weather, less fire on the ground, and mitigation benefits detectable only in models
By ROGER PIELKE JR.
Excerpt: The pattern is very familiar: With every extreme event comes claims — from journalists, scientists, and politicians — that we can reduce the impacts of those events by quickly cutting our emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.
Here are a few examples just in the last week with respect to the wildfires across southern France:
The logic is attractive: emissions cause warming, warming causes fires, so cutting emissions stops the fires.
Today’s post, as in a recent THB analysis of France’s heat waves, takes such policy causality claims seriously, and asks: What effect would cutting emissions — all the way to net zero and beyond — have on wildfires in France?
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The area actually burned did not rise
If fire weather conditions, you might expect the area burned to also increase. In France it has not.
The figures above show from two different data sources — MODIS satellite observations (2002–2024) and MODIS + VIIRS (2012-2026) — trends in area burned across France. Note that the Mediterranean region accounts for about 70% of the nation’s total area burned. The orange bar for 2026 is area burned year to date.
From 2002 to 2024 the total area burned decreased and there is no trend from 2012 to present.
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End excerpt