New Study Predicts Global Population Collapse, Abortion Partly to Blame

In the 1970s, so-called experts sounded the alarm about overpopulation. Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb warned that the planet would soon become too crowded to sustain humanity. Obviously, those predictions proved false.  Now, the real crisis is the opposite: a global population collapse.

A study published in the Lancet medical journal has predicted that the world’s population will fall for the first time in centuries. According to the study, by 2050, three quarters of countries across the world will be below replacement rate, meaning they cannot sustain their population size. Most countries already have birth rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Countries like South Korea (1.12), Italy (1.03), and Japan (1.4) are experiencing some of the steepest declines. Even the United States is below replacement at 1.78 children per woman.

Why is this happening? Social and cultural shifts are at the heart of the issue. Many younger people are delaying or avoiding marriage and parenthood altogether. Economic pressures, career ambitions, and a focus on personal freedom are driving this trend. Additionally, climate anxiety is contributing to a growing belief that having children is irresponsible or unsustainable.

The consequences of population decline are profound:

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• Economic strain: Fewer workers will mean slower growth, higher taxes, and increased pressure on social support systems.

• Labor shortages: Key industries like healthcare, education, and infrastructure could struggle to find enough workers.

• Aging populations: A larger share of elderly people will put more pressure on healthcare and retirement systems.

• Loss of innovation: Fewer young people means fewer new ideas and less technological advancement.

Government leaders are taking notice of this issue. President Trump warned that contributing issues such as the collapse of the nuclear family and fertility rates are a greater threat to Western civilization than geopolitical tensions with China or Russia. Vice President JD Vance suggested financial incentives, tax breaks, and policy reforms to encourage family growth.

Abortion plays a big part in this conversation. As long as abortions (particularly chemical abortion pills) become more readily available, a large portion of our population will continue to be eradicated year after year. The pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute estimated 1,037,000 abortions (including 642,700 chemical abortions) in 2023 alone. This number is likely lower than reality because of the inconsistency of abortion reporting policies throughout the country. The total population of the United States in 2023 was 334.9 million. This means that at least 0.3% of our population was eliminated from abortion alone.

Although public policies often make tangible changes in our society, we cannot rely on them alone. Stronger family support systems, better work-life balance policies, and incentives for marriage and childbearing are a great start, but deeper societal values about family, marriage, and the inherent value of human life need to become greater. Reversing the anti-family cultural trend will require heart change, which only comes from the Lord.

As Christians, in order for us to see a cultural shift like this, we must first look inward. We cannot desire to see a revival, and then do nothing ourselves to bring it into existence. We must ask ourselves this: how are we exemplifying Jesus, making Him known, and helping those around us? Are you supporting the new mom in your life? When are you going to invite your non-christian friend to church? Have you been looking for long-term relationships with non-believers? We must be part of the solution, not the problem.