Why the Maple Leafs’ 2024-25 success hits differently — and what it means for the playoffs
Mitch Marner couldn’t avoid stating the obvious.
It wasn’t just that his Toronto Maple Leafs were reeling from a 5-1 drubbing on Nov. 27 by the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. It was how the brutal defeat halted a semi-remarkable run of victories for the club when so many players were out of action, including captain Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, Max Domi, Max Pacioretty, David Kampf and Ryan Reaves.
“We’re missing half our team up front, man,” said Marner, shaking his head at the question of why Toronto couldn’t generate any offense that night. “It’s tough.”
And yet, the Leafs have practically built their season around overcoming adversity — and not just on the injury front. Toronto’s been adapting to a new system too, under a new coach in Craig Berube, without ever having the whole band together. Establishing — or replacing — an identity is hard to do under the circumstances.
Toronto is managing it thanks in large part to Marner’s contributions (and yes, there’s more on him later). But the club’s success stretches beyond a singular element. These are not the same Maple Leafs who were bounced from a first-round playoff series last spring for the third time in four years. They don’t often resemble those former iterations — and that’s the point. Toronto is seeking different results — and, for once, actually taking tangible steps to realize them.
Granted, the Leafs’ postseason fortunes are unpredictable and rightly on the back burner (for now). What Toronto’s focus is (and should be) on is winning under any condition — not always a previous strength — and eventually translating a lineage of regular-season success into something greater.
What’s changed for Toronto in making that achievable? How have they carried on through early-season hardships in relatively dynamic fashion, going toe-to-toe with the Panthers for top seed in the Atlantic Division, and sitting top 10 in the NHL in points percentage?
Let’s take a look.
“IT KEPT COMING back to Craig.”
That’s how Leafs general manager Brad Treliving introduced Berube as the franchise’s head coach in May, the undeniable “new voice” Treliving wanted for Toronto after firing previous bench boss Sheldon Keefe a week earlier.
Treliving had heard players would go through a wall for Berube. But since he was hired, it’s been Berube breaking down the Leafs’ old barriers.
Before Berube, Toronto’s reputation was as an offensive powerhouse fueled — for better or worse — by its so-called Core Four: Matthews, Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares.
The Leafs could score. They were flashy and fun. And that offensive output helped them secure all manner of regular-season accolades including the most single-season wins in franchise history (54) during the 2021-22 campaign. Meanwhile, Matthews owns the franchise mark for most goals scored by a player in one season (69) from his eye-popping 2023-24 showing.
Matthews has had a rough start to this season, though. He missed nine games with an undisclosed injury that necessitated a trip to Germany in search of treatment. Toronto rallied without their top center, going 7-2-0 thanks to a collection of contributions that spawned an experimental moniker: the “Core Six.”
The expanded definition came about as Toronto is averaging fewer goals this season than any other time in the Core Four era, sitting 22nd in the league, with 2.90 goals per game. Over the same stretch a year ago, Toronto was second overall with 3.64 goals per game. In fact, since Matthews & Co. came together, the Leafs have never finished the season below three goals per game.
Well, times have changed. Toronto has just four players with double-digit goal totals this season — Matthews just scored his 10th in Saturday’s tilt at Detroit. The critical output of Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann — who’ve taken on top-line responsibilities in Matthews’ absence — put them in elite company with the Leafs’ other key offensive drivers.
Because that Core Six? They have 70 goals collectively this season. The rest of the team combined has 21.
That imbalance of secondary scoring hasn’t derailed the Leafs for a few reasons — one of the largest being Marner’s all-world performance.
TORONTO’S TOP-LINE WINGER is a dazzling force, with 10 goals and 40 points in 30 games, good for a share of ninth overall in the league. Marner might be weaving together the best season of his career, and the timing is perfect.
Marner, 27, is in a contract year and poised to become an unrestricted free agent in July. He has been elite carrying Toronto’s offense through their health problems, so much so that the asking price on that next contract feels perpetually pushed forward. And you know Marner has some striking comparable numbers to work with from his closest companions.
It was just last season the Leafs were in a similar contract negotiation with Nylander, landing on an eight-year, $92 million pact. Matthews’ contract runs through 2026-27 with an average annual value of $13.25 million. So, does Marner warrant something in the middle? He’s currently making $10.9 million, has bargaining power and no apparent desire to rush into something with Toronto — especially given his body of work this season and for his career.
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Mitch Marner lights the lamp
Mitch Marner lights the lamp
The Leafs are holding their cards equally close.
“I’ve learned not to comment on that type of stuff,” said Leafs president Brendan Shanahan to TSN’s Gino Reda at the NHL Board of Governors meeting this month. “[Marner’s] playing great hockey. He’s been a great player for us for a long time.”
Fair enough. But in all of those seasons with the Leafs’ scoring prowess at the forefront, Toronto never achieved its ultimate aspiration of being fully multifaceted.
Enter Berube, who has Toronto buttoned up like their Sunday best on the defensive end.
WHILE THE LEAFS’ scoring might be down, they are holding opponents off the scoring sheet at an impressive level. Toronto is fifth in goals against (at 2.60 per game) compared to 15th at this time last season (3.18).
This is a change from bygone Toronto teams brandishing a wide-open style of play that left them vulnerable to back-end breakdowns (and there were many). Treliving knew the Leafs needed reinforcements on the blue line, and took a swing at the 2024 NHL draft by acquiring the signing rights to Chris Tanev, a pending unrestricted free agent. Tanev was everything Toronto wanted to anchor its defense — a premier stay-at-home player with exceptional shot-blocking ability and a reputation for shutting down the middle of the ice.
Tanev was originally touted as a potential top-pairing partner for Morgan Rielly, but it has been Tanev and Jake McCabe who have redefined what Toronto does on defense. The duo suppresses more chances than practically any other regular duo, while being saddled with most of Toronto’s defense zone starts and their opponents’ toughest matchups. Tanev and McCabe have set the standard for Toronto forcing shots from the perimeter and keeping high-danger chances increasingly off the board.
It’s not just Tanev and McCabe who deserve credit for Toronto’s improved defensive efforts, of course. There’s been a collective buy-in that has percolated with this team for some time.
“The big shift between this year and previous years is our play on the defensive side,” Shanahan said. “You really sort of admire what Florida did. They weren’t really known as a defensive team. They kind of made a collective decision, as a group, that they were going to be an outstanding defensive team, and it got them a championship. … There’s a long way to go, but so far, the commitment on the defensive side of the puck, the goaltending that we’ve been getting, knock on wood, we just want to keep improving, getting better at that.”
Ah yes, the goaltending. Another spot the Leafs are ecstatic about upgrading that’s been recently bit by the injury bug.
As noted, the forward group has been decimated at times. Marner and Nylander are the only regulars up front who have appeared in every game. Toronto has had better luck with their defensemen and netminders staying healthy — just not lately. First, it was McCabe sitting out five games with an upper-body injury. Now it’s Anthony Stolarz joining a long list of Leafs who’ve been listed as day-to-day this season.
Good thing Toronto has no expectation of sympathy from their league partners.
“We’re the Leafs,” McMann said. “No one feels bad for us. Guys go down [but] everywhere we go, we’re going to have other teams’ best to go up against.”
TORONTO HAS BEEN answering that bell on the back of Stolarz. After he exited the first period of Thursday’s game against Anaheim with a lower-body injury, Berube couldn’t hide his relief that the prognosis wasn’t worse. If it weren’t for Stolarz, the whole narrative of Toronto’s season might be starkly different, but he could return later this week.
When asked about Stolarz being moved to IR on Sunday, Berube seemed to backpedal by saying, “we’ll get an update on [him] in a couple days; I’m not really going to comment on that now.”
This isn’t great news for the Leafs. Dennis Hildeby — up from the American Hockey League and fresh from recording an .889 save percentage in the Leafs’ come-from-behind win over Buffalo on Sunday — can only do so much filling Stolarz’ spot alongside Woll.
Treliving signed Stolarz as a free agent last summer after the veteran won a Cup with the Panthers backing up Sergei Bobrovsky. He has not only paired with Joseph Woll to form the sort of reliable tandem Toronto’s been searching for in net, but has excelled in Toronto’s bright spotlight, while collecting the best save percentage in the league among goalies with at least 20 starts.
And Stolarz’s dominance has helped propel the Leafs even while missing large parts of the regular lineup. Being able to lean on top-tier goaltending hasn’t always worked out for the Leafs — something Keefe knows all too well. And Toronto’s former coach had high praise for Stolarz after he put on a clinic beating Keefe’s New Jersey Devils last week.
“Best goaltending in the league on the other side,” surmised Keefe when asked what made the difference for Toronto.
That compliment could apply to Woll as well. He’s posted an 8-4-0 record with a .918 save percentage and 2.24 goals-against average, ranking among the league’s best goaltenders with a minimum 10 starts.
The nagging issue with Woll has been his health. The 26-year-old has been sidelined at several times during his Leafs’ career with injuries, even forced out of a critical Game 7 start against the Boston Bruins in Toronto’s first-round playoff series last spring. He was also sat out to start this season with “lower-body tightness.”
That’s really what opened the door for Stolarz to step in as the Leafs’ starter — and he hasn’t looked back. Toronto remains hopeful Stolarz won’t miss much time, but even a brief absence will allow the Leafs to show they can continue to rally through hardships that would have been stumbling blocks in the past.
Because the Leafs are different now, right?
Have they proved it yet? And can that even be done in the regular season — or will they need to prove it in the playoffs?
What’s true now is that Toronto doesn’t only resemble the team it used to be. There’s a grittiness to the group that goes beyond just an evolved style of play. The Leafs themselves a little more hardened. A little less playful. And maybe significantly more focused on the fact that the prime years for that forward core — whether it’s four or six — are dwindling.
Toronto’s window is still open. Now it’s time to see if they can throw enough weight to keep it from closing with another disappointing thud in May.