When will Tua Tagovailoa return, and what’s next for Dolphins after latest QB injury?

MIAMI — Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa played a full season for the first time in his NFL career in 2023. He led the NFL in passing yards and directed the league’s No. 1 offense to an 11-win season and an AFC wild-card berth.

The Dolphins rewarded him with a four-year, $212.1 million extension this offseason with the hopes that he and the team would take another step forward in 2024.

But the 2024 season has sputtered at the start. Tagovailoa suffered the third documented concussion of his NFL career in a Week 2 loss to the Buffalo Bills. He was placed on injured reserve days later.

In the Dolphins’ first game without him, they lost 24-3 at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Backup quarterback Skylar Thompson was unimpressive, throwing for 107 yards before being knocked out of the game with a rib injury midway through the third quarter. Tim Boyle, his backup, didn’t fare much better, finishing the game completing 7 of 13 passes for 79 yards. The offense had 205 total yards, nearly 200 yards off its season average in 2023.

The Dolphins are three games into a 17-game season, but they are in a loaded AFC conference. With Tagovailoa out for at least the next three games, Miami’s offense faces an uncertain future.

With games against the Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals before a visit to the Bills on Nov. 3, the Dolphins’ early schedule is favorable. But the quarterback situation has the potential to hold back one of the most expensive wide receiver rooms in the NFL ($48.7 million), limiting this offense as a whole.

With Tagovailoa’s future still uncertain, here is what we know about where he and the Dolphins stand.

Tagovailoa attended the Dolphins game this past weekend in Seattle, how much longer is he on the injured reserve list and what are the hurdles he must clear to play again?

NFL rules state that a player placed on injured reserve must miss at least his team’s next four games — so Tagovailoa still has three games to go. The Dolphins play the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots over the next two weeks before their Week 6 bye. The last game of that stretch is at the Indianapolis Colts on Oct. 20.

McDaniel has repeatedly said there is no timeline for Tagovailoa’s return. The Dolphins are focused on their franchise quarterback being healthy.

“The great thing about IR is there’s — for a month’s time, there’s no timelines,” McDaniel said last week. “I always say that, but I’m not sure that people quite understand; if you set a timeline based upon the information you have today, how much of whatever goes on is fulfilling the prophecy of that timeline? And is that the right thing? Especially with competitors and stuff, sometimes you can do more harm than good.

“Not worrying about anything as it relates to timelines is very empowering for him as a human being to recover from injury, and that’s steadfast the only motivating factor that you have when you’re dealing with players and their careers and their injuries.”

If Tagovailoa is cleared to return, what are the Dolphins saying about his future this season and beyond?

While they’re focused on him returning to full health, the Dolphins have not publicly suggested that Tagovailoa will not be their starting quarterback for as long as his play warrants it.

What must change, however, is how he protects himself in the future.

Tagovailoa’s most recent concussion occurred when he initiated contact with Bills defender Damar Hamlin after scrambling for a first down. That is not what he has been coached to do; specifically after suffering two confirmed concussions in 2022, Tagovailoa said that October if he runs, he is expected to slide.

“I had my coaches telling me, ‘We don’t ever want you to [initiate contact],'” Tagovailoa said. “Obviously, I get that, coming off of the injury and what had happened prior with the concussion. But to me, it’s football. You go out there and for me, I can see the first down in instances, and want to do all that I can to go and get it.”

McDaniel said prior to Miami’s Week 3 game that he understood why a player might initiate contact during a run — but he doesn’t condone it from his quarterbacks.

“I appreciate competitive spirit and fighting for every yard, but I don’t coach quarterbacks to try to run over defenders,” McDaniel said. “However, you try to play a competitive sport where people are trying to tackle you with vigor and sometimes competitiveness takes over. I don’t really judge that as much as I try to have lessons learned and be able to articulate, ‘OK well, what can you do in the future?’ I’m not adjusting — I have the same philosophy. It’s well, in this situation, maybe identifying the yard line and running to space or sliding.”

If he can’t be medically cleared to play, what would the Dolphins owe Tagovailoa and how does it affect the salary cap? How does that figure change if he is cleared but chooses to retire?

Tagovailoa’s extension includes $167.1 million in guaranteed money, $93.1 million of which was fully guaranteed at signing. If he is never medically cleared to play, he is entitled to the entire $167.1 million. In that event, the Dolphins are insured for up to $49.3 million of Tagovailoa’s contract — although it’s not known whether concussions are excluded from the Dolphins’ insurance policy.

Two insurance industry sources without direct knowledge of Miami’s policy told ESPN they’d expect that concussions would be excluded from Miami’s policy coverage on Tagovailoa, based on their experience working with insurance carriers.

If Tagovailoa is medically cleared to play and retires, he forfeits his right to any of his remaining guaranteed money. The most likely outcome in this scenario is Tagovailoa and the Dolphins reaching some sort of good faith settlement — including the team not trying to recoup any portion of Tagovailoa’s $42 million signing bonus. An NFL consulting source without direct knowledge of the Dolphins’ plan suggested to ESPN that if Tagovailoa were to wait until after the season to retire, the Dolphins might advise him to do so after June 1, which would give them a cap charge of $8.4 million in 2025. The remaining $25.2 million would then count against the 2026 salary cap.

The “likely outcome” if Tagovailoa were to retire, the source said, is the Dolphins would allow him to keep his signing bonus and possibly an additional settlement — although it would not likely be a significant amount relative to his contract.

Neither Tagovailoa nor any of his Dolphins teammates or coaches have suggested that he plans to retire.

If he does not play again, where would this leave the Dolphins?

Tagovailoa’s retirement would instantly disrupt the team’s timeline as a Super Bowl contender. Miami is built to win right now with skill players such as Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane all under team control for the next few seasons. But the supporting cast likely won’t matter without the right quarterback in place.

Thompson, Boyle and Tyler Huntley are the Dolphins’ current quarterbacks, but if Tagovailoa doesn’t return, Miami could turn to a veteran like Ryan Tannehill, trade for a veteran like Jimmy Garoppolo or trade for a young quarterback looking for a new situation in Bryce Young.

Thompson has one year remaining on his rookie contract, but it’s unlikely he would enter the 2025 season as Miami’s starter in this scenario. If Tagovailoa does not play again this season, Miami could earn a high pick in the 2025 NFL draft and use that selection on a quarterback. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Miami’s Cam Ward and Georgia’s Carson Beck are among the top QBs available in the 2025 draft.

Either way, the quarterback position would need to be addressed without Tagovailoa. Failure to do so could result in a reset of what was once a promising rebuild.

If Thompson comes back from the rib injury, will he start again?

This is the least experienced quarterbacks room the Dolphins have rostered since Tagovailoa was drafted fifth overall in 2020. When the Dolphins signed Huntley off the Ravens practice squad, McDaniel said the move was meant to add depth behind Thompson.

He left the door open for a competition, however. Particularly after Thompson and the Dolphins’ performance against Seattle in Week 3, Huntley could see the field soon. McDaniel described Thompson’s rib injury as “painful” and the team was expected to know the full extent Monday.

“I do think that it helps the dynamics of the room to give another guy with starting history to this team,” McDaniel said last week after adding Huntley, “and gives another added addition of a guy that’s a signal-caller that a team can get behind. I was happy adding — what we were able to do in the quarterback room — in adding Boyle, but I think [adding Huntley] is more directly to back up Skylar and then you always let competition play out when it’s out on the field, but this was a depth move, for sure.”

Miami could also turn to Boyle, who has starting experience. He has completed 102 of 157 passes for 853 yards and 4 touchdowns against 9 interceptions in five career starts for the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets. He orchestrated the Dolphins’ two longest drives of the day in relief of Thompson on Sunday.

Tagovailoa could still return for the team’s final 11 regular-season games. Even if the Dolphins are 1-5 by the time he plays again, Miami could have an outside chance at pushing forward into the AFC playoff picture. However, with games against the Packers, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns and Jets again to end the season, it would be difficult for the Dolphins to reach the postseason for a third straight year.