What to know for NFL Week 4: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game

0


The Week 4 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full slate, including the first London game of the season (on ESPN+), a big AFC East Dolphins-Bills showdown, Patrick Mahomes against the Jets’ defense and Ezekiel Elliott’s return to Dallas. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Seahawks and the Giants on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
ATL-JAX | MIA-BUF | DEN-CHI
BAL-CLE | CIN-TEN | LAR-IND
TB-NO | WSH-PHI | MIN-CAR
PIT-HOU | LV-LAC | NE-DAL
ARI-SF | KC-NYJ | SEA-NYG

Thursday: DET 34, GB 20

9:30 a.m. ET | ESPN+ | Spread: JAX -3 (43.5)

Storyline to watch: Both offenses have struggled to start the season. The Jaguars have scored just two touchdowns in their past eight quarters and rank 29th in third-down conversion rate (29.7%). The Falcons have scored only two first-half touchdowns in three games and managed just six points last week. One of these teams getting into the end zone early could determine the outcome. — Mike DiRocco

Bold prediction: The last time Kyle Pitts played in London — in 2021 against the Jets — the tight end scored his first career touchdown (and only TD that season). Back in the U.K., Pitts will find the end zone twice. Jacksonville has given up two scores to tight ends over the past two weeks, so the opportunity could be there for Pitts to score for the first time since Oct. 30, 2022. — Michael Rothstein

Stat to know: Since Week 9 of last season, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has led the league in QBR throwing outside the numbers, recording an impressive 15 touchdown passes to just one interception. In that span, Atlanta’s defense ranks 26th in opponent QBR outside the numbers while allowing 11 passing touchdowns with no interceptions.

Matchup X factor: Falcons running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. As good as Robinson has been this year, the Falcons’ running attack hasn’t been overwhelmingly efficient, ranking just 11th in expected points added (EPA) per designed carry (.01). To overcome the team’s pass-game deficiencies, Robinson and Allgeier have to be special. — Walder

Injuries: Falcons | Jaguars

What to know for fantasy: The Falcons’ defense has been friendly to tight ends, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to that position this season. That plays into the hands of the Jaguars’ Evan Engram, who ranks first among tight ends in yards after catch (132), second in receptions (18) and third in receiving yards (173) this season. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons have covered six straight meetings and are 7-1 against the spread (ATS) all-time against the Jaguars. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Jaguars 34, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 24, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: JAX, 52.3% (by an average of 0.9 points)

Read our complete ESPN+ guide for the matchup
Watch Falcons-Jaguars exclusively on ESPN+

Matchup must-reads: Falcons offense hasn’t ‘skimmed the surface’ through Week 3 … Lloyd (thumb) out next two games in London … What’s wrong with the Jaguars?


1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -2.5 (53.5)

Storyline to watch: Whether the Bills can slow down the Dolphins’ offense is the big question going into the game, and while Buffalo’s ability to get pressure and turnovers will be key, its offense playing keep-away would help. Buffalo’s offense is third in average time of possession (35:45). And while winning convincingly hasn’t been a problem for either team, with the Dolphins outscoring their opponents by 59 points and the Bills outscoring theirs by 56, all three games between Buffalo and Miami last year were decided by three points or fewer. So another close game could happen. — Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: The Bills have not allowed 500 yards of offense in a regular-season game since Sept. 20, 2015, but that streak will end Sunday as the Dolphins — who are averaging 550.3 yards per game — continue to surge. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Bills QB Josh Allen is 9-2 in his career against the Dolphins (including playoffs), his most wins against any team. He is a perfect 6-0 at home vs. Miami.

Matchup X factor: Dolphins edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. They have just 1.5 sacks combined this season, but both rank in the top 15 in pass rush win rate at edge. Both offenses should be explosive, so the Dolphins’ pass rush could give Miami an edge if it can get to Allen. — Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Bills

What to know for fantasy: The Bills have the third-highest pass rush win rate and had nine sacks against the Commanders in Week 3. They’ll face a challenge his week, though. The Dolphins’ offensive line ranks 12th in pass block win rate, and Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the fastest average time to throw in the league (2.2 seconds). See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins lead the NFL with a +18.0 cover margin, the second-best mark in the NFL through three games in the past seven seasons (2022 Jaguars were +19.5). They are 3-0 ATS. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bills 35, Dolphins 31
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 35, Bills 34
FPI prediction: MIA, 51% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Dolphins’ Waddle clears concussion protocol, set to return … McDaniel says revenge not on Dolphins’ minds vs. Bills … Three storylines shaping huge Bills-Dolphins AFC East showdown … Bernard off to historic start in replacing Edmunds


1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DEN -3.5 (46)

Storyline to watch: Only six of 251 teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3, and this matchup features two of the four remaining winless franchises. Both teams suffered blowout losses in Week 3, too. The Broncos allowed Miami to score 70 points and gain 726 yards, while the Bears are looking to rebound from a 31-point road loss to Kansas City and snap the NFL’s longest active losing streak at 13 games. It has been nearly a year since the Bears won a game (Oct. 24, 2022, at New England). — Courtney Cronin

Bold prediction: A reeling Broncos defense — last in almost every major statistical category — will sack Bears QB Justin Fields at least twice and snag an interception. After surrendering 70 points to Miami, the Broncos face the league’s 27th-ranked scoring offense, as the Bears are averaging a not-so-robust 15.7 points. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: The Bears have allowed 106 points through three games, the second-most in franchise history (111 in 2003). Chicago’s most points allowed through four games is 134 (1964).

play

0:32

Can Javonte Williams turn in a good fantasy game vs. Bears?

Liz Loza deems Javonte Williams a low-end RB2 in Week 4 vs. the Bears.

Matchup X factor: Fields. Forgive the obvious answer, but he’s the clear X factor for the Bears. Chicago has other problems, no doubt. But a league-worst 21 QBR from Fields has to improve. — Walder

Injuries: Broncos | Bears

What to know for fantasy: Russell Wilson ranks eighth in passing yards and sixth in touchdown passes, and he averages 18.4 fantasy points. His touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first three games has been 6-1, and he has thrown for 300-plus yards in consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 3 and 4 of the 2020 season. It bodes well for Broncos wide receivers Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims Jr. against the Bears, as quarterbacks have scored the fifth-most points against them. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Broncos are 1-8 ATS as favorites since the start of last season and 1-9 ATS in their past 10 games in that role. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Broncos 28, Bears 24
Walder’s pick: Broncos 24, Bears 16
FPI prediction: DEN, 52.8% (by an average of 1 point)

Matchup must-reads: 0-3 Bears suddenly a key survival test for Broncos … Bears OC lauds Fields for taking leadership role … Inside the only 600-point offense ever … Bears’ Eberflus plans to call defensive plays rest of season


1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CLE -3 (40.5)

Storyline to watch: QB Deshaun Watson has not won (or lost) consecutive games since joining the Browns. He can finally put together a winning streak if he can outduel Lamar Jackson, who is 2-0 against Watson in head-to-head matchups dating to Watson’s time with the Texans. While Watson hasn’t defeated Jackson, he did guide the Browns past a Tyler Huntley-led Ravens team in December. — Jake Trotter

Bold prediction: Jackson will be held without a touchdown. He has totaled more touchdowns against the Browns than any other team in his six-year career, throwing for 11 and running for four. But the Browns’ defense has given up only one touchdown this season and hasn’t allowed one in Cleveland. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: The Browns have not allowed a TD in two home games this season (outscored opponents 51-6 in Cleveland). The 2006 Broncos and 2000 Dolphins are the only teams this century to not allow a touchdown in their first three home games.

Matchup X factor: Browns cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. His 0.4 yards per coverage snap is best among all outside corners with at least 75 coverage snaps. — Walder

Injuries: Ravens | Browns

What to know for fantasy: The Browns’ defense has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and a completion rate of less than 50%. Cleveland’s defense also ranks first in run stop rate. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Ravens are 18-3-1 ATS as underdogs since 2018, the best record in the NFL (12-10 outright). Jackson is 11-1-1 ATS as an underdog (9-4 outright), the best cover percentage and winning percentage as an underdog by any quarterback with at least 10 starts in that role. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Browns 23, Ravens 21
Walder’s pick: Browns 24, Ravens 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 53.7% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jackson upset about Ravens’ inability to finish … Watson steers Browns to bounce-back win … Ravens’ Clowney: No ‘bad blood’ exists with Browns … How Browns are moving forward at RB after Chubb’s injury


1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: CIN -2.5 (41)

Storyline to watch: Look for the Titans to take shots down the field, especially using play-action. The Bengals’ young safeties Dax Hill and Nick Scott will be eager to come up and help against the run, especially for a defense that has taken pride in slowing down RB Derrick Henry. QB Ryan Tannehill’s two longest completions this season came via play-action (a 70-yard pass to WR Treylon Burks and a 49-yard bomb to WR Chris Moore). Both throws traveled 20-plus yards in the air. Meanwhile, the Bengals have allowed an NFL-high 10.0 air yards per completion. — Turron Davenport

Bold prediction: Defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and the rest of the Titans’ defensive line will have no sacks. Cincinnati’s much-maligned pass blocking has made big improvements over the past two weeks. That and QB Joe Burrow’s especially quick release because of his right calf injury will lead to a lack of production for one of the NFL’s best interior defensive lines. — Ben Baby

Stat to know: The Bengals have allowed only five sacks this season, their fewest through three games since 2018. Cincinnati is seeking its 12th straight game allowing fewer than three sacks (would be its longest streak since 18 straight from 2005 to ’06 and second-longest in franchise history).

play

2:00

Wk. 4 Whiteboard Wednesday: Titans vs. Bengals

Joe Burrow will be looking to get the ball to Ja’marr Chase often. Here’s a way Cincinnati has gotten Chase some quick and easy catches. Titans DBs have to tackle to prevent YAC. Video by Turron Davenport.

Matchup X factor: Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins. He has been notably absent, with just 110 receiving yards through three games, and his 46 Open Score via our Receiver Tracking Metrics is an eyebrow-raiser. The Bengals need more from him. — Walder

Injuries: Bengals | Titans

What to know for fantasy: It is difficult to run on the Titans’ defense, but you can throw on them. This year, Tennessee’s secondary has allowed 275.3 passing yards per game, fifth-most in the league. Quarterbacks have averaged 19.7 fantasy points against the Titans. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are 25-15-1 ATS as underdogs under coach Mike Vrabel, including 21-20 outright. They are 10-5 outright and ATS as home underdogs under him. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bengals 28, Titans 17
Walder’s pick: Bengals 20, Titans 10
FPI prediction: CIN, 60.8% (by an average of 3.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Burrow: Risk of going 0-3 outweighed chance of re-injuring calf … Titans players tired of empty winning talk amid losing trend … Burrow using Rodgers as ‘resource’ on calf injury … Skoronski recovering from ruptured appendix


1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: EVEN (46)

Storyline to watch: A key to this game will be the matchup of the Colts’ surging front seven against the Rams’ offensive line. The Colts’ defense is second in the NFL with 12 sacks. Los Angeles is 27th in pass block win rate, which has negatively impacted Rams QB Matthew Stafford (60.8% completion rate and 2-to-4 TD-to-interception ratio). — Stephen Holder

Bold prediction: Colts QB Anthony Richardson will become the first quarterback since 1950 with a rushing touchdown in each of his first three NFL games. The Rams have allowed four rushing touchdowns in their first three games of the season, including one to 49ers QB Brock Purdy. — Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: The Colts have lost six straight home games. A seventh defeat would mean their longest home losing streak since they dropped eight straight in 1991 (the franchise record is nine).

Matchup X factor: Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. The interior of the Rams’ offensive line is vulnerable, and that should open the door for Buckner to disrupt or sack Stafford. — Walder

Injuries: Rams | Colts

What to know for fantasy: The Colts’ defense has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so insert Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell into your fantasy lineups. Indy’s defense is allowing 250.7 passing yards per game, 10th-most in the league. Plus, the Rams might rely heavily on the passing game because the Colts rank fourth in run stop win rate. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Rams road games are 7-1-1 to the under since the start of last season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Colts 24, Rams 17
Walder’s pick: Rams 26, Colts 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 55.9% (by an average of 2.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rams hope to have Kupp back in Week 5 … Moss finally feeling ‘appreciated’ amid career highs


1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NO -3 (39.5)

Storyline to watch: The Saints will get RB Alvin Kamara back from suspension this week, which couldn’t be more timely for a team that averages 93.3 rushing yards per game and faces a Buccaneers team susceptible to the run. Whether they have QB Derek Carr is a question, as Carr is currently recovering from a right shoulder injury sustained against the Packers on Sunday. If Carr can’t go, then Jameis Winston will be getting the start against his former team. — Katherine Terrell

Bold prediction: Bucs linebackers Lavonte David and Shaquil Barrett will combine for 3.0 sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. David has 3.0 sacks and a forced fumble in the past three meetings against the Saints, and if right guard Cesar Ruiz remains out with a concussion, it could create some opportunities for Todd Bowles’ interior blitzes. Barrett also had 2.0 sacks and a forced fumble the last time he saw the Saints in Week 2 last season, and they happened working against Saints tackles James Hurst and Ryan Ramczyk. — Jenna Laine

Stat to know: Baker Mayfield’s one interception is the fewest he has thrown in the first three games of a season in his career, while his three sacks taken are tied for the fewest in the first three games. Mayfield has never gone the first four games of a season without throwing multiple interceptions.

Matchup X factor: Bucs edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. His 14% pass rush win rate this year is below average, but he gets to face Saints tackle Trevor Penning on Sunday. Penning’s pass block win rate is 74.3%, which ranks 58th out of 62 tackles. That presents an opportunity for Tryon-Shoyinka and could result in him getting to Winston or Carr. — Walder

Injuries: Buccaneers | Saints

What to know for fantasy: The Buccaneers’ defense ranks last in the league in run stop win rate and this unit just gave up 130 rushing yards to Eagles running back D’Andre Swift in Week 3. That presents an opportunity for Kamara, especially since Jamaal Williams is on injured reserve. In 26 career games where Kamara has had 15-plus rushing attempts, he has averaged 19.8 fantasy points. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Dennis Allen is 21-34-1 ATS in his career (.382). Out of coaches with at least 50 games in the Super Bowl era, Allen has the worst cover percentage and is the only one below 40%. Bowles is 37-44-5 ATS (.457). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Saints 27, Buccaneers 19
Walder’s pick: Saints 27, Buccaneers 23
FPI prediction: NO, 54.9% (by an average of 1.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bucs, Evans preparing to renew heated rivalry with Saints … How the Saints can get a boost with Kamara back … Eagles dominate Bucs in battle of unbeatens … Saints’ Carr on injury: If I’m out there, then ‘I’m good’


1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: PHI -9 (43)

Storyline to watch: Commanders QB Sam Howell has his work cut out for him. He has been sacked a league-high 19 times and has been pressured the fifth-most of any QB in the NFL (36.6%). Now he faces a disruptive interior defensive front featuring Fletcher Cox, Jordan Davis and rookie Jalen Carter, who ranks second among defensive tackles with 15 pressures. Howell’s five interceptions are the second-most entering Week 4, while the Eagles’ defense is tied for second in takeaways with eight. — Tim McManus

Bold prediction: Washington will sell out to stop the Eagles’ rushing attack — D’Andre Swift in particular. He has rushed for a combined 305 yards the past two weeks, but the Commanders will hold him to fewer than 100 yards. Washington has been boom or bust against the Eagles’ rushing attack in the past four meetings. The Commanders have held them to less than 118 rushing yards three times — but gave up 238 in the fourth meeting. The Commanders will use a lot of their five-man defensive fronts against arguably the best offensive line in football; the key will be how Philadelphia throws the ball. — John Keim

Stat to know: Jalen Hurts’ 29 rushing touchdowns are the most by a quarterback in his first 50 games in NFL history (Sunday will be Hurts’ 49th career game). He is looking to become the seventh player in Eagles history to record 30 rushing touchdowns and would join Randall Cunningham (32) as the only QBs to reach that mark.

play

1:09

What to make of the Eagles’ 3-0 start

Robert Griffin III, Domonique Foxworth and Dan Graziano break down the biggest takeaways from the Eagles’ start to the season.

Matchup X factor: Commanders defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. Slowing down the Eagles’ run and forcing them to the air — where they’ve been a little shaky — seems crucial if Washington has any hopes of pulling an upset. — Walder

Injuries: Commanders | Eagles

What to know for fantasy: Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith has played four games against the Commanders in his career, averaging 7.7 targets, 75.5 receiving yards and 15 fantasy points per game against Washington. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Commanders are 3-6-2 ATS as at least seven-point underdogs under coach Ron Rivera. All three covers were outright wins. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Eagles 35, Commanders 24
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 7
FPI prediction: PHI, 76.5% (by an average of 10 points)

Matchup must-reads: Commanders confident Howell ‘growing pains’ will bring improvement … Swift helping carry Philly offense in multiple ways … Why Harris had to win Commanders’ bidding war


1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: MIN -4 (46.5)

Storyline to watch: The Panthers and Vikings are two of four 0-3 teams in the NFL, and neither were expected to be in this position. Each has reason to believe they can get a win. The Panthers welcome rookie QB Bryce Young (ankle) back to the starting lineup against a Vikings defense ranked 27th in the NFL, giving up 382.3 yards per game. The Vikings, with an offense ranked third overall and second in passing (339.7 yards per game), face a Panthers defense down two starters in the secondary (CB Jaycee Horn, S Xavier Woods) and banged up at several other positions. There are a lot of strengths versus weaknesses in this one. — David Newton

Bold prediction: Running back Alexander Mattison will have the Vikings’ first 100-yard rushing game of the season. The Vikings acquired Cam Akers from the Rams last week, and Akers will get some playing time Sunday, but Mattison will play with an extra competitive edge. It helps that the Panthers’ defense is allowing 136.7 rushing yards per game, tied for fifth-worst in the NFL. — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with 1,075 passing yards (most through three games in Vikings history). He needs 313 yards to set a franchise record for most passing yards through the first four games of a season (he set the record in 2018).

play

0:52

Why Kirk Cousins could have a ‘massive day’ in Week 4

Field Yates says Kirk Cousins remains underrated in fantasy football and insist managers start him in Week 4.

Matchup X factor: Young. The reality is the offense was better with Andy Dalton in Week 3 than it was with the rookie QB in the first two weeks. So much hinges on whether and how quickly the No. 1 overall pick can improve. — Walder

Injuries: Vikings | Panthers

What to know for fantasy: The Vikings’ defense has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Adam Thielen has a favorable matchup against Vikings slot cornerback Josh Metellus, so the Panthers wide receiver should do well against his former team. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have won three straight games as home underdogs (3-1 ATS/straight up last season). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Vikings 24, Panthers 17
Walder’s pick: Vikings 33, Panthers 24
FPI prediction: MIN, 63.9% (by an average of 5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ defense could be bigger worry than situational mistakes in 0-3 start … Thielen ‘feels like a kid again’ as he prepares for Vikings … O’Connell threatens to bench players over turnover issues


1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -3 (42.5)

Storyline to watch: The Steelers’ defense is tied for fifth in interceptions (four), but Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud has yet to throw an interception in his NFL career. A potential issue for the Texans is they have injuries all over the offensive line as LT Laremy Tunsil, RT Tytus Howard, C Juice Scruggs, LG Kenyon Green and backup LT Josh Jones are injured. Tunsil and Jones aren’t on injured reserve like Howard, Green and Scruggs, but they might not play on Sunday. — DJ Bien-Aime

Bold prediction: Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt will tie his single-game career-high with four sacks. Because Stroud excelled at getting the ball out quickly against the Jaguars’ blitz, the Texans didn’t surrender a sack a week ago — but gave up 11 in the previous two weeks. Watt had multiple sacks in two of three games this season, plus older brother J.J. Watt will be inducted into the Texans’ Ring of Honor this weekend. Count on a friendly yet fierce sibling rivalry to get a little extra juice. — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin’s 23-4 record against rookie quarterbacks is the best record of any coach vs. first-year QBs since at least 1950 with a minimum of 15 games coached.

Matchup X factor: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. The rookie third-round pick ranks second in yards per route run against man coverage among wide receivers with at least 50 routes and looks like an emerging star. — Walder

Injuries: Steelers | Texans

What to know for fantasy: The Texans’ defense ranks 19th in run stop win rate and has allowed the fourth most fantasy points per game to running backs. Colts running back Zack Moss scored 20.7 fantasy points against Houston’s defense in Week 2, and the Jaguars’ Travis Etienne Jr. scored 17.8 fantasy points in Week 3. That bodes well for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Texans are 0-9-1 outright in their past 10 home games (4-6 ATS). They are 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Steelers 27, Texans 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 19, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: PIT, 58.7% (by an average of 3.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Can the Steelers’ offensive improvement vs. Raiders be trusted? … Texans rookies Stroud, Anderson, Dell asserting themselves among the NFL’s elite … Stroud makes history


4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -5 (49)

Storyline to watch: Both teams’ top receivers, Keenan Allen of the Chargers and Davante Adams of the Raiders, are fresh off dominant performances. Allen threw a passing touchdown and had 18 catches for 215 yards and a receiving score last week against the Vikings; Adams had 13 receptions for 172 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Now, they both face struggling pass defenses. The Chargers’ secondary has allowed the most passing yards this season (1,079), and both teams are tied for the third-most passing touchdowns allowed (seven). — Kris Rhim

Bold prediction: No matter who is playing quarterback for the Raiders — Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell — he will be sacked at least twice each by Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The Raiders’ O-line allowed Garoppolo — who is in concussion protocol — to get sacked four times last week. Mack, the 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year for the Raiders, is looking for his first sack of the season, while Bosa already has three. — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has 213 consecutive passes without throwing an interception, the longest streak in team history.

Matchup X factor: Chargers cornerback Michael Davis. He’s allowing 2.3 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats — almost double the league average for an outside corner. That’s part of the reason the Chargers’ pass defense has been so poor. — Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Chargers

What to know for fantasy: With just two rushing attempts of more than 10 yards and six passes of more than 20 yards, the Raiders have generated the fewest explosive plays in the league. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders have covered five of their past six division games. The past four division games have gone under the total. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Raiders 21
Walder’s pick: Chargers 34, Raiders 30
FPI prediction: LAC, 74.6% (by an average of 9.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rookie or vet if Garoppolo can’t start? The pros, cons and QB questions for the Raiders … Williams’ injury sets the stage for rookie Johnston … Ekeler, back at practice, says Week 4 ‘a possibility’


4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DAL -6.5 (43)

Storyline to watch: Maybe you’ve heard this is Ezekiel Elliott’s first time back at AT&T Stadium since he was cut by the Cowboys. While Elliott’s homecoming has been a central theme this week, the Cowboys need to find the form they had in the first two weeks defensively after a no-show against the Cardinals. Stopping Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson will be at the top of the list, but offensively, they will have to find a way to score touchdowns in the red zone vs. a stingy Patriots defense. The Cowboys have converted six touchdowns in 15 red-zone trips. New England did not allow a red-zone trip to the Jets last week. — Todd Archer

Bold prediction: Elliott will score his first rushing touchdown as a Patriot against his former team. Elliott is coming off his best game in New England (80 yards on 16 carries), and the Cowboys have shown a vulnerability against the run, ranking 30th in yards per carry allowed (5.3) and 25th in rushing yards allowed per game (131.3). — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is averaging a career-low 6.3 yards per attempt and 5.3 air yards per attempt. The air yards is second-shortest in the league, behind only Colts rookie Anthony Richardson.

play

2:19

Is Dak to blame for Cowboys’ red zone struggles?

Dan Orlovsky doesn’t understand why CeeDee Lamb’s red zone targets are so low for the Cowboys.

Matchup X factor: The Patriots offensive line. It already ranks last in pass block win rate and now is facing Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush. Good luck. — Walder

Injuries: Patriots | Cowboys

What to know for fantasy: The Patriots’ offensive line helped New England amass 157 rushing yards in Week 3. This Patriots grouping should remain together for a second consecutive week, which is noteworthy since this group did not get many reps together during the summer. That could be big for the Pats’ running backs against a spotty Dallas rush defense. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Patriots quarterback Mac Jones is 0-10 ATS in his past 10 starts as an underdog. He is 3-11 ATS as an underdog in his career (2-12 outright). And the Patriots are 0-7 ATS in their past seven games as an underdog. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Cowboys 23, Patriots 20
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 28, Patriots 20
FPI prediction: DAL, 68.6% (by an average of 6.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Will Jones get Patriots’ deep-passing game going against Cowboys? … Cowboys’ red zone struggles continue in loss to Cardinals … Elliott looking forward to facing Cowboys


4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -14 (44)

Storyline to watch: The Cardinals’ win against the Cowboys in Week 3 should serve as a warning to the Niners that Arizona is not to be taken lightly, especially with San Francisco scheduled for a Sunday night showdown against Dallas in Week 5. The Niners pride themselves on being the most physical team in every game, but a run defense that hasn’t been tested much this year (opponents have attempted just 43 rushes, the fewest in the NFL through three weeks) will be challenged. Arizona enters this matchup ranked sixth in rushing yards and second in yards per rush. — Nick Wagoner

Bold prediction: Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs will finally break out and have his first 300-yard passing game while adding 75 yards on the ground. Dobbs has been solid so far, as his 61.2 QBR ranks 10th in the NFL, but he’ll step it up even more and put Arizona in position to pull an upset. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: Niners running back Christian McCaffrey has 12 straight games, including playoffs, with a touchdown, matching Jerry Rice (1987) for the longest streak in franchise history.

Matchup X factor: Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson. He’s averaging a gaudy 17.1 air yards per target. If the Cardinals are going to somehow pull off this upset, they’re probably going to need some deep shots to the rookie. — Walder

Injuries: Cardinals | 49ers

What to know for fantasy: Only the Ravens, Browns, 49ers, Eagles and Dolphins have averaged more rushing yards per game than the Cardinals (156.3). Almost half the Cardinals’ rushing attempts have gained five or more yards, second-highest in the league. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS this season, all as an underdog. They are the first team to start 3-0 ATS and be double-digit underdogs in their fourth game since the 1977 Buccaneers and the first to be at least 14-point underdogs in their fourth game since the 1969 Falcons. Read more.

Moody’s pick: 49ers 35, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Cardinals 16
FPI prediction: SF, 87.3% (by an average of 15.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Obstacles in Gannon’s career path led him to Cardinals … 49ers fully appreciate significance of second 3-0 start since 1999 … Is McCaffrey the prototype for the next star running back?


8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: KC -8.5 (41.5)

Storyline to watch: You could argue this matchup features the best quarterback in the NFL against the worst. Since entering the league in 2021, Zach Wilson has a league-low 34.4 QBR, which is last among qualified passers. In the same span, Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with a 73.4 QBR. This season has seen much of the same, as Mahomes’ 69.2 QBR is fifth in the league, while Wilson’s mark of 26.7 is 33rd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks. — Rich Cimini

Bold prediction: The Chiefs will notch their first shutout since they blanked the Texans in a 2015 wild-card playoff win. The Chiefs are playing as well, if not better, on defense than they have since Andy Reid became their coach in 2013, while the Jets are struggling to make their way with Wilson at quarterback. The Chiefs took a shutout into the fourth quarter last week against the Bears. This time, they finish the job. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: With one passing touchdown on Sunday Night Football, Mahomes will surpass Hall of Famer Dan Marino for the fewest career games to 200 passing touchdowns in NFL history.

Matchup X factor: Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner. The Jets are going to need an otherwordly defensive performance — probably with a defensive score — to pull off this upset. No one’s more important in making that happen than Gardner. — Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Jets

What to know for fantasy: Through three games, the Jets rank 32nd in points, total yards, and first downs. New York has averaged only 2.8 yards per play in Wilson’s two starts. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jets are 3-1 ATS and 2-2 outright as home underdogs of more than a touchdown. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Chiefs 28, Jets 10
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 24, Jets 13
FPI prediction: KC, 74.1% (by an average of 9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Mahomes reaches 25,000 career passing yards in win … Saleh, players OK with Rodgers calling out Jets … A hype timeline of Kelce and Swift’s rumored romance … Namath blasts Wilson as Jets reaffirm faith in QB


Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: SEA -1 (47)

Storyline to watch: This will be QB Geno Smith’s first start at MetLife Stadium since Week 7 of the 2016 season when he was with the Jets. Since then, Smith started for the Giants (in place of Eli Manning) in a road game in 2017 and played for the Chargers and Seahawks. As the starter for the Seahawks, Smith beat the Giants and Jets last year in Seattle and evolved into a Pro Bowl quarterback. Now, he returns to the place where his career began as a second-round pick for the Jets in 2013. — Jordan Raanan

Bold prediction: Jamal Adams will have at least 1.5 sacks in his return from injury. The star safety is finally back from the torn quad tendon he suffered in last season’s opener, so Monday night’s game will mark an unveiling of Seattle’s plan to get him back to his 2020 form, when he set the record for sacks in a season by a defensive back with 9.5. He faces Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, who has already been sacked 12 times over three games, tied for fourth-most in the league. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: Jones has a 1-11 career record in prime-time games as a starter, with the lone win coming in Week 15 last season against the Commanders. Jones’ prime-time record is the worst by any starting QB since the 1970 merger (minimum 10 starts).

Matchup X factor: Giants tight end Darren Waller. He is averaging 1.7 yards per route run, which sounds OK for a tight end, but the Giants need him to be more than that. His 25% target rate ranks 27th among players with at least 50 routes run, but he ranks 50th in yards per route run among that same group. — Walder

Injuries: Seahawks | Giants

What to know for fantasy: Many fantasy managers expect Jones and the Giants’ pass catchers to have a productive Monday night, with the Seahawks allowing the second-most passing yards this season. But the Seahawks are fourth in pass rush win rate, which could be a factor against Jones, who has struggled against pressure in the past. See Week 4 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Giants have lost seven straight Monday Night Football games, going 3-4 ATS in that span. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Seahawks 27, Giants 24
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 31, Giants 21
FPI prediction: SEA, 57% (by an average of 2.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Seattle’s run defense has surprised so far this season … How do the Giants fix their defense? … Seahawks safety Adams to return vs. Giants on MNF … Giants say Barkley day-to-day with ankle injury



Source link
Las Vegas News Magazine

Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More