Voters in Arab-American strongholds likely tipped Michigan in Trump’s favor

President-elect Donald Trump won Michigan in the 2024 election, an important prize in his decisive victory.

The state has earned its title as a swing state. After narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton in Michigan in 2016, Trump lost the state to President Joe Biden in 2020, and now Trump has narrowly won it again.

Michigan has the largest population of Arabs, Muslims and Palestinians in the United States, currently numbering more than 200,000.

Back during the primary in February, a group called Listen to Michigan organized the uncommitted campaign in the state, promoting it as a way to express dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s support of Israel’s actions in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza.

More than 100,000 Michigan voters picked “uncommitted” instead of Biden during the Democratic primary.

I am a Michigan-based political scientist who studies campaigns, elections and polling. I was interested to see how that protest vote during the primary would carry over into the general election.

But let me first explain why such a small group of voters matters.

Recent voting patterns in Michigan

Michigan has been a swing state in the last three presidential elections and each time the elections have been incredibly close.

In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 10,674 votes out of almost 4,800,000 cast – a razor-thin margin of just 0.23%. At the time, his success was attributed to the Clinton campaign’s lack of attention to Michigan in terms of visits and advertising.

Joe Biden learned from this in organizing his 2020 campaign, advertising more heavily and making more visits to the state in what turned out to be a winning strategy.

But as he organized his 2024 reelection campaign, Biden faced the headwinds of low approval ratings, mostly brought on by lingering economic pain related to the COVID-19 shutdowns. Although the unemployment rate had come down significantly, by 2023, consumers were still feeling the pinch.

Then on Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas initiated a violent attack on Israel, and Biden expressed strong support for Benjamin Netanyahu as the Israeli Prime Minister initiated an aggressive response in Gaza. Even as the number of civilian casualties grew dramatically, Biden remained steadfast in his support.

Just five months later, Michigan held its presidential primaries on Feb. 27.

The impact of the Middle East conflict

To protest the adminstration’s position, Arab Americans organized a national Uncommitted Movement.

Just over 100,000 uncommitted ballots were cast in Michigan’s 2024 Democratic primary – about 13.2% of the vote. The greatest number came from Wayne County, the most populous in the state and home to many Arab Americans living in Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, Hamtramck and the surrounding areas. In the previous three campaign cycles, just about 2% of voters choose uncommitted.

Biden made no public effort to engage with Arab American leaders in Wayne County before he withdrew from the contest or after. The Harris campaign did some outreach but mostly in private.

Leaders of some Arab American groups advocated not voting for Harris because of the administration’s position on Gaza and Lebanon. Others suggested voting for third party candidates.

At the same time, Trump made multiple visits to Arab American groups during the general election campaign. He used his daughter Tiffany’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, a Lebanese American, as a surrogate. The mayors of Hamtramck and Dearborn Heights endorsed him.

Did it swing Michigan?

The returns from municipalities with significant Arab American populations show how much they shifted Trump’s way.

In 2020, the Biden-Harris team had won almost 69% of the vote in Dearborn. In 2024, Harris-Walz got just 36% – with Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, taking 18%.

In Dearborn Heights, Trump defeated Harris by 44% to 38%. Jill Stein received 15% of the vote.

In just these two communities, plus Hamtramck, Trump received 50,332 votes.

Donald Trump ran a strong campaign in 2024, with almost 2,500 counties nationwide – including 82 of 83 in Michigan – shifting more Republican. He won all of the seven swing states.

In the swing state of Michigan, Harris’s inability to win over Arab Americans played a small but significant role in allowing Donald Trump to win by 80,618 votes.