Trump Wins: What a Comeback
What do you get when you combine an unpopular Democratic candidate and a poor economy? A bloodbath. A clean sweep of all swing states. A potential win of the popular vote.
We were optimistic on Monday – if you looked at the crosstabs closely, Trump was making gains with independents, Black men, and Hispanics. He was adding 2020 Biden voters. There was widespread disapproval of Biden’s economic policies and Trump was trusted on the most two important issues this election: the economy and immigration. Momentum favored the Republicans. Nobody was enthusiastic for Kamala.
Contrary to the findings of the public pollsters – most of which had Kamala winning the election and the popular vote – the campaign’s internal polling was correct. (Credit to AtlasIntel and Rasmussen Reports and others who did a great job.)
Those media reports about “terrible morale” inside the Trump campaign – like Trump’s “Hitler comments” and that last-minute Kamala +3% Iowa poll – were completely false. The Trump Team believed they would win. They were confident.
Kamala had a tough assignment. One that exceeded her abilities.
How do you motivate voters without charisma? How to reassure voters with an economic plan when you wouldn’t do anything different than Biden? How do you convince voters that you’ll secure the border when you failed as “Border Czar”?
How do you win a Presidential election when you spectacularly failed as a candidate in 2020? You can’t.
(A rhetorical question – how did those ~20 million Democrat votes from 2020 just vanish??)
Republicans finally traded the neocons for the working class. And it worked. Rural voters and Hispanic voters showed up for Trump. Rural counties shifted right across the country. Texas border counties, for example, are 90% Hispanic Democratic strongholds. Trump lost those counties by 10%+ in 2020. He won those counties last night.
Looking to the future, the success of Trump’s first term might be exceeded in his second. What can we expect from the upcoming Trump Administration – and what might the opposition throw his way? Here are some early thoughts:
Justices Thomas and Alito may retire. Thomas is 78 and Alito is 74. It’s tough to imagine a Court without either of these men; Alito is a stalwart and Thomas is irreplaceable. But their retirement during Trump’s term would cement their legacies and ensure their successors are appointed by a president of their choosing, lest they make the same mistake as Ruth Bader Ginsberg.
More progress and less chaos. From the outset, Trump’s first term was beset by false accusations of Russian collusion and the investigation of Special Counsel Robert Mueller. This, in part, hampered the Administration’s legislative agenda. With no such pressure Trump might actually have a honeymoon period this second time around and we might see legislation to strengthen American manufacturing, ending taxes on tips (Republicans would be smart to keep that campaign promise), and ease the cost of living burden on all Americans. JD Vance should be an asset in that effort.
Compared to 2016, Trump is more familiar with the workings of the government and the demands of the Executive. He has a better idea of who might be loyal to his interests and those of the America First agenda, and will hopefully better manage various federal bureaucracies and those government officials whose agenda counters Trump’s. Recall that Defense officials lied to President Trump about troop counts in Syria or members of the intelligence community whose false claims about Trump’s alleged influence with Ukraine led to Trump’s first impeachment trial. Let’s hope he avoids those traps this time.
Robert Kennedy, Jr. cleans house. It doesn’t look like RFK Jr. will head Health and Human Services. That’s fine. He might do better and be more effective as the Health Czar, given authority to recommend cuts across various federal agencies – including at the CDC and the FDA, where he has said there are “entire departments” that “have to go.” RFK Jr.’s plan is to “get the corruption out of the agencies”, a shot against the captured corporate interests within these agencies and those that misled the public about COVID-19 and US financing of gain-of-function research.
The release of the JFK files. Another promise made by Trump – this one we’d like to see him keep.
Civil suits. We would not be surprised if another false accuser, assisted by many of the same Democrats who advised E. Jean Carroll, emerged to assert some kind of sexual harassment/assault case while Trump is in office. Presidents can be sued for their private acts while they hold office – President Clinton, for example, was sued by Paula Jones in 1994 (two years into Clinton’s first term) alleging various federal and state claims. The Supreme Court allowed that case to proceed. See Clinton v. Jones, 520 US 681, 706 (1997) (“We therefore hold that the doctrine of separation of powers does not require federal courts to stay all private actions against the President until he leaves office.”). This is a serious threat – or, for the lawfare crowd – a way to throw a wrench into the Trump Administration.
An End to the Ukraine-Russia War. Negotiated peace is now an option. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives would be saved. Russian gains would be limited.
Fairness to farmers. It has been reported that Congressman Thomas Massie has agreed to serve as Trump’s Secretary of Agriculture. Joel Salatin, the “Lunatic Farmer” (we love Salatin) has accepted a position as “Advisor to the Secretary.” Massie has sponsored the Prime Act, which according to Salatin is “the biggest shot across the bow of the entrenched industrial meat processing system we’ve seen in a century.” Small farms will – hopefully – be able to compete against the economies of scale of Big Agriculture.
If anyone has a vested interest in the success of the second Trump term, it is JD Vance. He’s the Republican frontrunner for 2028. (Will we see a Vance-DeSantis ticket?) Expect him to take the lead with Trump’s America First legislative agenda. Things look good. Republicans have a broad coalition, if they can keep it. Enjoy.