Trump Has Commanding Lead In Brand New 2024 GOP Delegate Forecast


A new 2024 delegate forecast found former President Trump with a commanding lead over both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and the rest of the GOP field.

Race To The WH has been designed to “adapt to the unique rules of every state to project the number of delegates candidates would win” if the states held their election tomorrow. The model uses current state and national polls to assess each candidate’s standing in the race.

As of May 5, 2023, former President Trump holds a commanding lead over his GOP challengers. Against the whole field, Trump is currently projected to receive 1,786 delegates. Governor DeSantis found himself in second with 594, while former Vice President Mike Pence currently placed third with 33.

In a consolidated race between just Trump and DeSantis, the former president again holds a commanding lead with 1,616 delegates to 837.

The 2024 Republican nominee will be selected by delegates to the Republican National Convention, which will be held from July 14-18, 2024, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

In 2024, there are an estimated 2,467 delegates: 2,363 pledged delegates and 104 unpledged delegates, per Ballotpedia. In order to win the nomination, a candidate must receive a majority of delegates, an estimated 1,234 delegates.

The latest delegate forecast lines up with a number of recent polls that show Trump with a commanding lead over both DeSantis and the rest of the GOP field. One such poll, which was conducted by CBS News and YouGov, found Trump with a commanding lead of 58% of the vote compared to 22% for DeSantis.

Among respondents who said they will be supporting Trump in 2024, 94% said their choice is influenced by his past performance as president and his willingness to “fight for people like me.”

84% stated that they viewed him as the best choice to beat President Biden, while 82% like the way he attacks the opposition.

Las Vegas News Magazine

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