Trafalgar Pollster Signals Republican Voters Will Be Undercounted Again Ahead Of Midterms | JP
A top pollster signaled many deeply submerged Republican voters would be undercounted again in the weeks ahead of the 2022 Midterms Elections in November.
Robert Cahaly, founder and senior strategist and pollster of Trafalgar group, observed during the debut of Election Wire, a new weekly podcast from JP scheduled to air every Sunday leading up to the elections next month, that with the upcoming election around the corner many Republican voters would be underestimated after legacy media talking heads and establishment politicians declared MAGA republicans “enemies of the state.”
“These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard — they’re not even posting on social media,” Cahaly said. “They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”
Cahaly said voters shouldn’t trust polls in the coming weeks, considering many pollsters failed to accurately predict the last three elections by highly favoring Democrats and undercounting Republicans.
“Polls have two purposes,” he said. “They’re either to reflect the electorate, or they’re to affect the electorate — and too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one.”
With American skepticism of polling continually increasing due to false narratives forged by the pollsters, Cahaly said such groups have already begun to face the possibility of getting the next election cycle completely wrong again.
“And so now they’re having to get back to reality because they don’t mind at all being wrong, but they hate it when somebody is right,” he said.
Next month, registered voters nationwide will line up at the polls to tip the political scale in one direction or another in several highly controversial races and issues. However, with several important critical elections in the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races, Democrat and Republican candidates and voters are both displaying optimism balance the power in Washington.
House Republicans have been boasting a red wave of confidence, believing they could take back the house if they can successfully secure five net seats to gain the majority.
Pennsylvania, a battleground state garnering most of the national attention, has Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz facing off against Lt. Governor Democrat John Fetterman for the state’s open Senate seat.
With approximately $90 million already spent on the race, the race has shifted significantly since both candidates began campaigning. However, issues regarding Fetterman’s health came into question after the candidate suffered from a stroke just before hitting the campaign trail.
Recent polling shows Oz gaining ground. A Morning Call and Muhlenberg College survey found that Oz trails Fetterman by five points. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, leads Republican State Sen. Doug Mastriano by 11 points in the gubernatorial race.
Election Wire, hosted by Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief John Bickley and Senior Editor Cabot Phillips, launched Sunday in the lead-up to the midterm elections. The weekly podcast will feature reports from key battleground states, the latest news and polls, and a partnership with Trafalgar, the most accurate pollster from 2016 and 2020.