Top 3 Most Accurate Pollster Reveals How They Nailed The 2024 Election
Quantus Insights — a relatively new pollster who rose to national prominence by putting out some of the most accurate polls for the 2024 presidential election — explained the keys to their approach in a lengthy blog post.
Quantus Insights, which is sponsored by Trending Politics and led by Jason Corley, managed to beat out several established pollsters who had been given “A” ratings by prominent polling aggregators like FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver during the 2024 campaign cycle. The “A-rated” Marist College, whose polls were lauded as the “gold standard” for national polling, predicted a comfortable, 51-47 popular vote victory for Vice President Kamala Harris in its final poll, resulting in a wide miss of 5.5 percentage points.
YouGov, which boasts a perfect three-star rating from FiveThirtyEight, missed by 2.5 percentage points, while the “B-rated” MorningConsult missed by 3.5.
Quantus Insights, on the other hand, almost perfectly predicted the popular vote with a miss of just 0.7. “Quantus Insights perfectly nailed the popular vote, alright?” said Fox News’ Jesse Watters in the days following the election. “Those are the two you’ve gotta look to next election,” he added in reference to Quantus and Atlas Intel.
WOW.
Shout out to @QuantusInsights for perhaps being the most accurate pollster of Pennsylvania! https://t.co/CjAQherXnx
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 6, 2024
“In the unpredictable world of election polling, accuracy isn’t just a benchmark—it’s the gold standard by which pollsters earn trust and credibility,” Quantus Insights founder Jason Corley wrote in a post-election blog post published on Thursday. “In the 2024 presidential election, Quantus Insights proved itself to be one of the most accurate and reliable polling organizations in the nation, delivering results that stood out in an industry often criticized for misses and missteps.”
In total, Quantus Insights had a combined error rate of just one point across the pivotal Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“These states are notoriously difficult to poll due to demographic diversity, turnout variability, and their swing-state status. Despite these challenges, Quantus Insights achieved remarkable accuracy,” the post-election analysis continued.
In Michigan, Quantus Insights projected a Trump victory with a 1.2 percent error for Trump and 0.9 percent for Harris, a 2.1 percent combined error rate. The results were “nearly flawless” in Pennsylvania, as the Trending Politics-sponsored pollster missed Trump’s vote percentage by just one point, while the error towards Harris was just 0.5 percent.
As for Wisconsin — a state that has historically viewed as difficult to poll — Quantus Insights’ combined error rate was an astonishingly low 0.6 percent.
The results remained consistent in additional swing states like Nevada, where Quantus was off by just 1.9 percent. Quantus also managed to accurately pick up on a number of “subtle shifts” in another notoriously challenging state to poll, Corley noted in his analysis. Results were similar in North Carolina, where Quantus posted a combined error rate of just 1.6 percentage points.
“These successes are not just outliers—they reflect a commitment to methodological rigor, real-time analysis, and a deep understanding of voter behavior,” Corley wrote.
At the national level, Quantus predicted that Trump would receive 49.1 percent of the vote compared to 48.3 percent for Harris, a miss of just 0.7 percentage points.
If things are mostly settled at this point, this is where Quantus Insight stands for it’s October polling–a combined 1-point error rate across the Rust Belt and National level.
Notably, we polled Nevada (1.9-point error) and North Carolina (1.6-point error) correctly in… pic.twitter.com/NDiRTgzdIz
— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) December 19, 2024
“Quantus Insights’ combined election models were among the most accurate of the 2024 cycle, giving Trump a 65% chance to win the presidency and the popular vote. This model, based on advanced turnout predictions and demographic analysis, proved remarkably effective in capturing the final Electoral College outcome of 312 votes for Trump and 226 for Harris,” Corley explained.
“While other pollsters struggled to account for late-breaking trends or enthusiasm gaps, Quantus excelled in adjusting for these variables, ensuring projections remained both accurate and actionable.”
While wildly inaccurate polls like Ann Selzer’s infamous Des Moines County Register survey dominated headlines throughout the campaign cycle, Quantus Insights “consistently delivered accuracy and reliability” the analysis continued. Corley then listed three core principles that were key to the pollster’s success in 2024, including: Methodical Innovation, Data Transparency and Commitment to Excellence.
“Quantus Insights has set a new benchmark for what accuracy and reliability should look like in a fast-evolving political landscape,” the firm’s thorough post-election analysis concluded.
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