The Playbook: Shadow Studies, lineup locks for Week 16
Welcome to The Playbook for Week 16, which kicked off Thursday night with the Rams at the Seahawks.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
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DFS values in the charts below (and their relative quality) are only provided for Sunday’s main slate, which is why there are no values for the games scheduled for Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night or Monday. For a closer look at the best values for Sunday’s main slate, you can also take a look at Week 16’s DraftKings DFS cheat sheet.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
PHI-WAS | GB-CHI | BUF-CLE | LAC-DAL | KC-TEN | CIN-MIA | NYJ-NO
MIN-NYG | TB-CAR | JAX-DEN| ATL-ARI| PIT-DET | LV-HOU| NE-BAL | SF-IND
Projected score: Eagles 26, Commanders 19
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Dallas Goedert
Fantasy scoop: In three games since returning in Week 13, McLaurin has produced a 13-206-2 receiving line on 24 targets (15.2 fantasy PPG). That compares favorably to Deebo Samuel’s 12-134-0 receiving line on 18 targets (8.4 PPG) during the same span, though Samuel does hold a one-target edge over the past two weeks. In total, McLaurin has produced 14-plus fantasy points in three of seven games this season, having fallen short of 10.5 points in the other four. Samuel, meanwhile, got off to a hot start this season (17-plus points in four of his first five games), but he has now fallen short of 13 fantasy points in seven of his past eight outings.
McLaurin is the better WR3 play this week, though both receivers will have their hands full against an Eagles defense that has allowed the second-lowest catch rate (54%) and only six TDs to WRs this season.
Over/under: 44.9 (12th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 70% (4th highest)
Projected score: Packers 26, Bears 26
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, DJ Moore
Fantasy scoop: D’Andre Swift exploded for 96 yards and two touchdowns on 19 touches last week. The veteran back has now produced 20-plus fantasy points in two of his past three games, though he has fallen short of 12 points in three of his past five. Swift continues to operate in a timeshare with Kyle Monangai, with the two backs nearly identical in terms of snaps, carries and targets over the past four games.
Although Swift holds a slight edge over Monangai in passing situations, he hasn’t been too involved in that area as of late, totaling just eight targets during the four-game span. Swift took advantage of a leaky Browns’ run defense last week, but this will be a tougher assignment against a Green Bay defense that held Swift to 11.2 fantasy points and Monangai to 8.7 points in Week 14. Swift is best valued as a fringe RB2 and Monangai as a TD-dependent flex flier.
Over/under: 52.7 (Highest)
Win probability: Packers 50% (Lowest)
Projected score: Bills 25, Browns 17
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III, Quinshon Judkins, Harold Fannin Jr.
Fantasy scoop: Fannin has posted new career-high marks in targets both of the past two weeks. After putting up an impressive 8-114-1 receiving line on 11 targets against the Titans in Week 14, Fannin followed with a 7-48-0 line on 14 targets against the Bears on Sunday. Fannin has now handled a target share of at least 20% in each of Cleveland’s last nine games, but the team’s offensive struggles have led to inconsistent fantasy output.
Fannin has delivered five top-12 fantasy outings, but also four games with single-digit fantasy points during the nine-game stretch. The rookie sits no lower than sixth at the position in targets, catches and yards, so he should be in lineups, even in a tough matchup against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the fewest catches and fantasy points to tight ends this season.
Shadow Report: If he’s able to return from injury this week, Christian Benford is a good bet to shadow Jerry Jeudy. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points in the game), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9), Travis Kelce (10.6), Emeka Egbuka (9.0), Nico Collins (8.5), DK Metcalf (6.2) and Ja’Marr Chase (9.4) on their perimeter routes this season. The nine wide receivers averaged 13.1 fantasy points, although four straight have been held to single digits. Jeudy has rarely been usable in fantasy as is, so considering how poorly receivers have fared against Benford in recent weeks, Cleveland’s top receiver shouldn’t be in lineups.
Over/under: 42.5 (13th highest)
Win probability: Bills 78% (2nd highest)
Projected score: Chargers 25, Cowboys 25
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens
Shadow Report: Downgrade Dallas’ wide receivers against a Los Angeles defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fewest to the perimeter and fifth fewest to the slot. The Chargers have surrendered only six TDs to the position, as well as the fourth-lowest yards per target (6.8) and catch rate (57%). Only one receiver (A.J. Brown) has reached 12.5 fantasy points against the Chargers since Week 9. Lamb and Pickens should remain in lineups, but expectations should be lowered and they should be avoided in DFS cash games.
Shadow Report: Chargers receivers can be upgraded against a Cowboys defense that has surrendered the most fantasy points to the position (as well as the second most to the perimeter) this season. Dallas has allowed the most touchdowns (24) and sits top 5 in yardage, yards per target (9.6) and catch rate (68%) allowed to receivers. Ladd McConkey has fallen short of 4.5 fantasy points in two straight and three of his past four, but he’s a strong rebound candidate, whereas Keenan Allen (single-digit fantasy points in seven straight) is more of a low-ceiling flex.
Over/under: 50.2 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Chargers 54% (12th highest)
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Titans 18
Lineup locks: Rashee Rice
Fantasy scoop: Patrick Mahomes is done for the season, which positions Gardner Minshew as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. Minshew has attempted only five passes this season but did see extended work with the Colts in 2023 and Raiders in 2024. During those stints, he played at least 70% of the snaps in 22 games and averaged 12.5 fantasy PPG in those games. Minshew cleared 18.0 fantasy points in only three of those 22 games, with all three coming in 2023.
No longer much of a threat with his legs, Minshew is no more than a back-end QB2 and should be on rosters only in superflex formats. Kansas City’s skill position players figure to suffer from the change, with only heavily targeted No. 1 WR Rice a lineup lock, assuming that he clears the league’s concussion protocol in time to play. Xavier Worthy (more on him in a second) and Travis Kelce (back-end TE1) are worth considering.
Shadow Report: Kansas City may be without Mahomes, but the team’s wide receivers will benefit from a plus Week 16 matchup against a Tennessee defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts. The Titans sit top 7 in yards and touchdowns allowed to receivers and they’ve surrendered the highest catch rate (70%) and yards per target (9.6) to the position. The matchup makes Worthy a Week 16 sleeper.
Over/under: 40.9 (14th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 67% (6th highest)
Projected score: Dolphins 23, Bengals 23
Lineup locks: De’Von Achane, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Fantasy scoop: Joe Burrow posted a massive dud Sunday, failing to score a single touchdown and throwing a pair of interceptions against the Ravens. Burrow’s 5.5 fantasy points are his fewest in a game since Week 4 of the 2023 season and he now has as many duds (under 9.0 points) as he does big games (19-plus points) in his four full outings this season. Burrow has been a complete nonfactor with his legs this season (7-16-0 rushing line), which makes his passing output extremely important.
The good news is that we’ve seen some of that passing in recent weeks (including 284 yards and four TDs against the Bills in Week 14), but he’s obviously a riskier fantasy option than usual. Burrow is best viewed as a fringe starting option against a Miami defense that has allowed the highest completion rate (71%) and 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.
Shadow Report: Waddle can expect shadow coverage courtesy of DJ Turner this week. Turner has shadowed often this season and has done exceedingly well in those spots. The 11 receivers he has shadowed have averaged 8.0 fantasy PPG in those games, with only two reaching 13 points. The Bengals have quietly shown well against receivers overall, having allowed them the fifth-fewest fantasy points, including the second fewest over the last eight weeks. Waddle will avoid Turner roughly one quarter of the time when he’s in the slot, but, especially with Quinn Ewers making his first NFL start, he’s a candidate for a down week against one of the league’s breakout defenders.
Over/under: 46 (10th highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 67% (7th highest)
Projected score: Saints 23, Jets 17
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Chris Olave
Fantasy scoop: Tyler Shough has scored 17-plus fantasy points in three straight games and four of his past five. During that span, his 16.7 fantasy PPG rank 11th among active QBs, ahead of the likes of Burrow, Bo Nix, Mahomes, Hurts, Herbert and Lamar Jackson. Shough has thrown only six TDs, but he is playing solid ball and is adding value with his legs (28-127-2 rushing line over his past four games).
The rookie has a terrific Week 16 matchup against a Jets defense that sits top 10 in passing TDs (25) and QB fantasy points allowed despite having faced the fifth-fewest passing attempts. The Jets have inexplicably yet to intercept a single pass and allowed 44.3 points to Trevor Lawrence on Sunday, leading to the dismissal of defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Shough is risky, but he remains part of a long list of streaming options.
Over/under: 40.3 (15th highest)
Win probability: Saints 74% (3rd highest)
Projected score: Vikings 23, Giants 23
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, Wan’Dale Robinson
Fantasy scoop: J.J. McCarthy is on a roll, having now led the Minnesota offense to four touchdowns in consecutive games. McCarthy accounted for six of those eight scores (five passing, one rushing) and he has now scored 18-plus fantasy points in two straight and four of his eight career starts. The bounce-back was somewhat expected considering the team’s extremely light schedule (Commanders, Cowboys), but the good news is that “Easy Street” continues this week against New York. The Giants have surrendered the second-most QB fantasy points, with seven of the past nine they’ve faced producing a top-10 fantasy outing.
McCarthy’s inconsistent play makes him risky, but he’s another viable streaming option in an uncertain quarterback week. McCarthy has yet to find his connection with Jefferson, but the Vikings’ top receiver should remain in lineups after an eight-target Week 15 in which he had a few close-call big plays (including a touchdown taken away on an illegal formation). Jefferson hasn’t reached 12 fantasy points in any game since Week 10, but his 30% target share and the good matchup suggest a rebound game may be on the horizon.
Shadow Report: Giants receivers should be downgraded against a Vikings defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position this season. After holding Dallas relatively in check on Sunday, Minnesota has surrendered the third-fewest catches and sixth-fewest TDs (eight) to the position. Only nine receivers have reached double-digit fantasy points against Minnesota this season. Robinson’s hefty usage keeps him in the WR2 mix, but other Giants receivers should be avoided.
Over/under: 46.1 (9th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 53% (13th highest)
Projected score: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 22
Lineup locks: Bucky Irving, Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: Mike Evans returned to action on Thursday for the first time since Week 4. Though he was limited to 31 snaps (51%), Evans was busy, turning a team-high 12 targets into 132 yards on six catches against Atlanta. The big game was a bit surprising when you consider that he failed to clear 56 yards or 13.3 fantasy points in any of his first three full games of the season (when he was a full go).
Evans’ strong showing is enough to place him back on the WR3 radar but, just like Chris Godwin Jr. (10-plus fantasy points in three straight, including last week’s season-high 14.0) and Emeka Egbuka (held under 10.5 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games), he’s not quite a lineup lock. The Panthers have been solid against receivers this season, having allowed only 10 touchdowns and the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Over/under: 46.3 (8th highest)
Win probability: Panthers 58% (8th highest)
Projected score: Broncos 23, Jaguars 23
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers
Fantasy scoop: Trevor Lawrence is red hot. After piling up 44.3 fantasy points on Sunday, Lawrence has now produced five consecutive top-12 fantasy outings and has scored 17-plus fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games, with the exceptions coming against the two defenses that have allowed the fewest fantasy points to QBs (Chargers, Texans). Lawrence remains a threat with both his arm and legs (he’s QB10 in both passing and rushing yards, and ranks top 5 at the position in both passing and rushing TDs).
Lawrence’s hot streak is in jeopardy this week as he heads to Denver to take on a defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest passing TDs (14) and seventh-fewest QB fantasy points this season. The Broncos have allowed only three weekly QB finishes better than 12th this season and just one of those has come during their past seven games. Lawrence is a risky Week 16 streaming option.
Shadow Report: Pat Surtain II is a candidate to shadow Brian Thomas Jr. this week. Denver’s top corner has shadowed in seven games, with those receivers averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game and none clearing 15.3. It’s possible Denver chooses not to shadow, as Meyers has been very productive in recent weeks, but Thomas’ perimeter role makes him more vulnerable.
Regardless, this is a tough matchup for the Jacksonville passing game, as Denver has allowed a league-low five TDs and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to the position despite facing the seventh-most WR targets. Only three receivers have reached 16 fantasy points against them and none has reached 23. Expectations for Jacksonville’s receivers should be lowered, especially for Thomas.
Over/under: 46.4 (7th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 52% (14th highest)
Projected score: Falcons 24, Cardinals 23
Lineup locks: Jacoby Brissett, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, Kyle Pitts Sr.
Fantasy scoop: Bam Knight is out this week, which puts Michael Carter, Emari Demercado and perhaps Corey Kiner in play in the Arizona backfield. We had a look at this deployment on Sunday, with Carter the clear feature back (50 snaps, 14 carries, four targets) ahead of Demercado (seven snaps, one carry, three targets) and Kiner (five snaps, two carries). Carter produced a solid (and season-high) 94 yards in the game, but it’s worth noting that Demercado may have been limited considering it was his first game back from injury.
Demercado has usually worked ahead of Carter and he’s been effective in that role, averaging 6.6 yards per carry on 114 career carries (only Keaton Mitchell’s 7.1 YPC is higher among backs with 100-plus carries since 2023). We should anticipate a committee attack and, while Carter is the safest of the trio, he’s best left on benches in a neutral matchup against an Atlanta defense that has allowed only three backs to reach 16.0 fantasy points this season (Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Achane).
Shadow Report: We’re upgrading Arizona’s receivers against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to receivers over its past eight games. Atlanta has surrendered the fourth-most touchdowns (17) to receivers this season and a wideout has produced at least 24 fantasy points in three of the team’s past five games. If he’s back from injury, Harrison should be in lineups. If he remains out, Wilson should be locked in as a WR1. Wilson’s outlook is trickier if Harrison plays, as he has produced 16-plus fantasy points in all four games Harrison has been out (27.2 average) but hasn’t cleared 9.1 in 10 games with his running mate. Of course, the plus matchup makes it easier to justify rolling with Wilson as a WR2/3 even if Harrison plays.
Over/under: 46.7 (5th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 51% (15th highest)
Projected score: Lions 29, Steelers 24
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DK Metcalf, Jameson Williams
Fantasy scoop: Kenneth Gainwell continues to produce at a high level, delivering 80 yards on 13 carries and 46 yards on seven targets this past Monday. He has now scored 16-plus fantasy points in four of his past five games. Gainwell has been effective as a rusher (4.85 YPC) and a big factor as a receiver (he ranks no lower than seventh among RBs in targets, catches and receiving yards). Gainwell has already posted career-high marks in carries (93), targets (64), catches (57), scrimmage yards (783) and fantasy points (169).
The veteran back’s upside is limited by Jaylen Warren’s presence and he does have a tough Week 16 matchup against a Detroit defense that has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points to backs. So, just like Warren, Gainwell is best viewed as a fringe RB2.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Pittsburgh’s receivers against a Detroit defense that has allowed the second-most WR fantasy points, including the third most to the perimeter. The Lions have allowed the most yards and second-most TDs (20) to the position. An opposing receiver has reached 26.5 fantasy points against Detroit in four consecutive games (Robinson, Dontayvion Wicks, Ryan Flournoy, Nacua). Metcalf is the only Steelers receiver we’re considering and he stands to benefit in a big way, as he aligns on the boundary 81% of the time. He’s a lineup lock this week.
Over/under: 52.6 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Lions 69% (5th highest)
Projected score: Texans 26, Raiders 12
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Woody Marks, Nico Collins, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: C.J. Stroud is a streaming option this week against the struggling Raiders. The third-year QB is fresh off a strong showing in which he tossed three TDs against Arizona. Stroud’s production has been boom/bust, as he has just as many 18-plus point games as he does games under 11 points (four each). This week, he’s in a boom spot against a Raiders defense that has allowed the second-highest completion rate (69%) and sixth-highest EPA against the pass. Stroud doesn’t have a ton of upside, but with solid passing numbers, on pace for a career high in rushing yards and with a good matchup, he’s a fringe QB1 this week.
Shadow Report: Las Vegas receivers should be downgraded against a Houston defense that has surrendered the fourth-fewest catches, third-fewest fantasy points and only eight touchdowns to the position. The Texans have allowed the lowest catch rate (53%) to wide receivers and only two have reached 18 points against them (Nacua, Smith-Njigba). Raiders receivers shouldn’t be near your lineup.
Over/under: 37.9 (Lowest)
Win probability: Texans 93% (Highest)
Projected score: Patriots 24, Ravens 22
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Derrick Henry, TreVeyon Henderson, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Not only is Lamar Jackson not a Week 16 lineup lock, he may be worth benching all together. The Baltimore offense has scored exactly two touchdowns in six consecutive games and that has been reflected in Jackson’s fantasy output, as he has averaged 11.8 points per game during this stretch. Since opening the season with three straight top-5 fantasy outings, Jackson hasn’t posted a single finish better than ninth and has finished 20th or lower five times.
Josh Allen put up 24.5 fantasy points against New England while primarily in comeback mode last week, but that’s the most the Patriots have allowed to a quarterback this season — and only two others have reached 20. Jackson has plummeted to QB2 territory.
Over/under: 45.5 (11th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 56% (10th highest)
Projected score: 49ers 25, Colts 23
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: Philip Rivers’ return to action saw the veteran quarterback complete 18 of 27 passes for 120 yards, one TD and one INT. The game was his first in several years and it came against an elite Seattle defense. Still, the 44-year-old’s production, which included minus-5 yards on one carry, reinforced the fact that he’s unlikely to find his way onto the fantasy radar.
The output also wasn’t very good for the Colts’ offensive skill players. Taylor produced 101 yards, but that required an enormous 28 touches. Michael Pittman Jr. was limited to 26 yards on five targets and Tyler Warren was held to 19 yards on six targets. Josh Downs caught the lone TD, but generated just 13 yards on five targets. The good news is that this week’s matchup will be easier against a 49ers defense that has allowed the eighth-highest EPA and sits in the upper half of the league in fantasy points allowed to all four fantasy positions. Taylor is the only lineup lock from this offense, but Pittman and Warren remain on the radar.
Over/under: 48.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 55% (11th highest)