Taking a step back? Projecting the NHL’s top regression candidates for 2024-25

The NHL preseason is underway, and many teams have new faces. Last season saw some astounding performances, including a 69-goal performance from Auston Matthews, two players (Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov) reaching the 100-assist mark, 17 forwards hitting the 40-goal mark and five defensemen scoring at greater than a point-per-game pace. It is hardly bold to say we are unlikely to have a season like that in 2024-25.

Candidates for regression include those most likely to see a 10% drop in production (or more) either in goals or points, based on their situations according to my projections model. The biggest regression factor is shooting percentage; many players featured on this list shot well over their expected paces. While a few may not regress to their career averages, it is likely they will regress toward their talent level and therefore, a dip in goal production would be expected.

Other factors include players expected to be in different situations, team environments or matchups. Most of the players on the list have multiple factors contributing to their projected regression and are certainly not the only players who are likely to experience a meaningful performance regression.

Here are a handful of the most high-profile regression candidates for 2024-25: