Shock Information: Polar Bears Are Thriving – ‘The fatter a bear is the better it is’ – New Research: ‘There was no support for the predicted negative effect of warmer weather & habitat loss’ – Printed in journal Nature Scientific Experiences

https://dailysceptic.org/2026/01/30/shock-news-polar-bears-are-thriving/

BY SALLUST

Some polar bears, it seems, are doing well out climate change and reduced ice levels in the Arctic, so a study in Nature Scientific Reports says. Although ‘body condition index’ (BCI) was observed declining for the first five years of the 1995-2019 study, it didn’t stay that way:

We assessed how intrinsic (female reproductive state, age) and both males and females, BCI declined until 2000, but increased afterwards, during a period with rapid loss of sea ice. In models including sea ice metrics and climate (Arctic Oscillation), there was no support for the predicted negative effect of warmer weather and habitat loss. This indicates a complex relationship between habitat, ecosystem structure, energy intake, and energy expenditure. Increases in some prey species, including harbour seals, reindeer, and walrus, may partly offset reduced access to seals. Our findings underline the importance not to extrapolate findings across populations.

The key line there is “there was no support for the predicted negative effect of warmer weather and habitat loss”.

It seems that when conditions change there can be an initial negative effect, during which time animals learn to adapt and benefit. But not all polar bear populations may be so fortunate, apparently, and there is still good reason to believe that doom lies ahead, says the BBC:

“The fatter a bear is the better it is,” explained lead researcher Dr Jon Aars from the Norwegian Polar Institute.

“And I would have expected to see a decline in body condition when the loss of sea ice has been so profound.”

While this is unexpected good news for these Arctic predators, the researchers think it is unlikely to last.

As the sea ice continues to decline, bears will have to travel further to access hunting grounds, using more energy and depleting precious fat reserves.

The charity Polar Bears International points out that Svalbard’s polar bears were some of the most heavily-hunted in the world, until international protections were introduced in the 1970s.

Experts think the new findings could be linked to the population recovering from that hunting pressure. That, combined with an increase in the number of walruses – and of reindeer – in recent decades, appears to have provided the bears with a temporary boost.

Dr John Whiteman, Chief Research Scientist at PBI said the results were “positive in the short term”.

“But body condition is only one piece of the puzzle. Other recent research on these bears found that more ice-free days reduced survival in cubs and in subadult and old females.”

Elsewhere in the Arctic, climate change is having a very different effect on polar bears.

In Canada’s Western Hudson Bay, where the most southerly and best studied bears live, a decline in the population has been directly linked to warming temperatures.

Whiteman added that that the long-term picture for polar bears was clear – they need sea ice to survive.

“Ice loss ultimately means bear declines, but [this study shows] that the short-term picture can be very region-specific.”

“In the long term,” he told BBC News, “if ice loss continues unchecked, we know the bears will eventually disappear.”

That reads suspiciously like another potentially unreliable ‘predicted negative effect’.

Another way of looking at the polar bears is that in the ever-changing natural world there are always winners and losers. After all, the mammoths disappeared at a time of melting ice when there wasn’t a Chinese coal-fired power station in sight, while other animals adapted or evolved into species that could take advantage of warmer times, the retreat of the ice, and the spread of forests instead of cold, barren grasslands. Among them were the brown bear, various types of deer, and even ants. Another was us. Perhaps now some of the polar bears have also discovered that living in a frozen wilderness isn’t all it was cut out to be.

Worth reading in full.