Rising Democrat Star Now On Track To Lose Crucial Seat
A new poll has revealed a significant shift in Alaska’s congressional race, with Republican challenger Nick Begich pulling ahead of incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola. The latest survey, conducted by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), shows Begich leading Peltola by four percentage points in the first-choice ballot, a notable reversal from earlier polling. This swing is seen as a critical blow to Peltola, who had once held a commanding lead in the race.
According to the poll, which surveyed 400 likely voters from September 14-17, Begich is now favored by 44% of voters, compared to Peltola’s 40%. Perhaps more concerning for Peltola’s camp is that Begich maintains his lead in subsequent rounds under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, indicating a robust advantage for the Republican challenger.
One of the key drivers of this shift is Peltola’s declining favorability among Alaska voters. Once seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, Peltola’s approval rating has taken a significant hit in recent months. A key takeaway from the NRCC’s internal memo highlights that the more voters learn about Peltola’s record, the less they approve of her.
“In summary, the more voters learn about Peltola’s record, the less they like. Mary Peltola is taking on water despite her initial spending advantage, driven in large part by Republican ads highlighting her support for the Biden agenda and votes against Alaska’s veterans and those actively serving in uniform,” the memo states.
Peltola’s net favorability rating has plummeted from +24% in April to just +2% in mid-September, as Republican ads have focused on her voting record, especially her alignment with President Joe Biden’s policies. The NRCC has effectively hammered Peltola for supporting the Biden administration’s agenda, particularly on energy issues that are critical to Alaskans, and for votes perceived as detrimental to the state’s large veteran population.
NRCC spokesperson Ben Petersen underscored this momentum in a recent statement, noting that “Alaskans fed up with Democrat Mary Peltola voting for the Biden-Harris agenda and against veterans and military troops are choosing Nick Begich.” The poll also shows that among voters who have seen, read, or heard recent information about Peltola, a majority now hold an unfavorable opinion of her. The same poll in August had Peltola leading in this category by a margin of 12%, but as of mid-September, Begich has overtaken her in this key metric.
The race for Alaska’s congressional seat is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched in the upcoming midterm elections. While Peltola enjoyed an early advantage due to her name recognition and campaign war chest, the tide has turned in favor of Begich as voters become more informed about her record and alignments.
Begich’s lead, though narrow, signals that Republicans are well-positioned to flip this seat, which would be a significant loss for Democrats. With the election just weeks away, Peltola faces an uphill battle to reverse the narrative and regain the trust of voters who have soured on her leadership. If the current trend holds, Nick Begich could very well be the next representative for Alaska in Congress, marking a crucial win for Republicans in their bid to regain control of the House.