RINOs Panic As Institution Senator Faces Uphill Main Battle

Early voting is underway in Texas, and what was once expected to be a routine Republican primary for U.S. Senate has quickly turned into a political knife fight that has party insiders on edge.

At the center of the storm is Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) a four-term incumbent seeking his fifth term in Washington. Instead of cruising to renomination in the deep-red Lone Star State, Cornyn finds himself locked in a competitive three-way battle against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX).

With no candidate currently polling above 50 percent, most analysts expect the March 3 primary to head to a May 26 runoff.

Republican strategist Ross Hunt said Democrats’ confidence about flipping Texas has surfaced before — and fizzled just as quickly. The Dallas-based GOP data analyst and pollster noted that in several past election cycles, Democrats entered the race with momentum and optimism, only to fall short when votes were counted.

“Folks who have been paying attention to Texas politics have all seen this movie before,” Hunt said to The Hill. “All that could change if Ken Paxton is the nominee. If Paxton is on the ballot as the Republican nominee, that definitely gives the Democrats some oxygen they wouldn’t otherwise have.”

Decision Desk HQ’s polling average shows Paxton narrowly leading Cornyn, roughly 32 percent to 28 percent, with Hunt pulling in about 19 percent. Those numbers are enough to deny anyone an outright majority and force a runoff.

Congressman Wesley Hunt (R) speaks during House Judiciary Committee field hearing on New York City violent crimes at Javits Federal Building in New York City on April 17, 2023

“If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas,” Cornyn said during remarks to supporters in Fort Worth.

The remark reflects a concern among establishment Republicans who fear that Paxton’s polarizing profile could energize Democrats and force the GOP to spend heavily defending what should be a safe seat.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee circulated a memo arguing that Cornyn is “the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup” and that Texas “cannot afford to be a gamble” in a high-stakes midterm year.

According to internal polling cited by GOP operatives, Cornyn leads Democratic contenders by healthier margins than Paxton does in hypothetical matchups. Paxton, by contrast, runs even or trails slightly in certain scenarios.

Democrats are watching closely. In their own primary, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) and James Talarico (D-TX) are battling for the nomination, with Crockett benefiting from stronger name recognition and Talarico seen as potentially more appealing to moderates.

Austin, Texas United States – July 25th, 2025 – James Talarico speaking at Powered by The People Democratic Political Rally

Hovering over the race is President Trump, whose endorsement could reshape the field overnight.

Trump has said he likes “all three” Republican candidates and has yet to make a decision. That indecision has only intensified speculation.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has reportedly cautioned Trump about the stakes, while Sen. John Fetterman  (D-PA) publicly questioned why Republicans do not simply unite behind Cornyn.

Pollster Ross Hunt said that every day early voting continues without a Trump endorsement is a disadvantage for Cornyn. An endorsement, he argued, would benefit any candidate — but would have a disproportionately strong impact for the incumbent.

Paxton, however, has positioned himself as a committed MAGA ally and has emphasized his past statewide victories. Though he was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption charges, he was later acquitted by the state Senate. His team argues that Republican voters remain firmly in his corner.

Hunt, meanwhile, has criticized national Republicans for focusing heavily on Cornyn, calling it a misguided investment in a 24-year incumbent. With early voting now underway and no clear majority candidate, Texas appears headed toward a runoff that could further inflame divisions within the GOP.

For many grassroots conservatives, the race represents a long-overdue reckoning with the party establishment. For others, it is a high-risk gamble in a cycle where control of the Senate could hinge on a handful of seats.