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Real Analysis

Poll Reveals Gov. Kathy Hochul in DEAD HEAT with MAGA Rockstar for Governor of New York | JP

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A new poll revealed that the “red shift” President Trump’s campaign sparked in New York may not be done shifting just yet.

Kathy Hochul, the Lieutenant Governor at the time, took over when Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace following a sexual harassment scandal.

Gov. Hochul is up for re-election next year, but with a dismal 30% approval rating among likely voters it might be an uphill battle.

And now, this most recent poll is revealing she might have a serious contender rising in popularity and support.

Not only would Elise Stefanik trounce her nearest Republican rivals if a Republican Primary were to be held today…

But the Trump loyalist and rising MAGA star is currently sitting at a statistical TIE with Gov. Hochul.

And she hasn’t even officially declared her intention to run, yet!

There is little doubt that Stefanik will enter the race at a time of her own choosing.

Here’s the top level breakdown of the main numbers from Co/Efficient’s recent poll:

As the NY Governor election draws closer, she’s not backing away from her loyalty to the Trump agenda in the meantime.

President Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ passed by a narrow vote in the House this morning, and Rep. Stefanik shared the following post…

Proudly proclaiming that she was the deciding vote on the President’s landmark legislation:

Here’s the full text of her post, detailing the key points of the newly passed legislation:

Today, I was proud to be the deciding vote to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill, a historic victory for New Yorkers and President Trump’s America First agenda. 🇺🇸

More than 77 million Americans gave House Republicans and President Trump a mandate to cut taxes, secure our borders, restore energy independence, and deliver peace through strength.

This legislation includes key provisions that will benefit hardworking New York families. I was especially proud to work with my New York Republican colleagues to lead on delivering significant tax relief for New Yorkers by increasing the State and Local Tax cap by 300% – a win for hard working families struggling under the weight of the highest tax burden in the nation because of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s failed Far Left tax and spend Democrat policies.

Some additional provisions include:

✅ Delivering the largest tax cut in American history

✅ No tax on tips and no tax on overtime

✅ Protecting Medicaid for Americans by removing 1.4 million illegals

✅ Making permanent President Trump’s border security

✅ Modernizing air traffic control

✅ Ending taxpayer-funded sex changes for minors

✅ Delivering tens of billions of dollars in expanded ICE detention and calls for hiring a minimum of 10,000 new ICE agents.

✅ Including $25 billion for President Trump’s Golden Dome, a layered missile defense shield for America

✅ Holding woke, elite universities accountable by increasing the university endowment tax and subjecting the largest endowments to the corporate tax rate

✅ Reversing Joe Biden’s EV mandates and CAFE standards for passenger cars and light trucks

I urge the Senate to immediately pass our historic legislation to enact the One Big Beautiful Bill and ring in the Golden Age of America.

According to the details of the poll, a decisive 15% of New York voters indicated they are undecided about next year’s election.

Of those polled, 85% of likely voters were split almost evenly between Gov. Hochul and Rep. Elise Stefanik.

President Trump actually scored BETTER than Kathy Hochul in her own state!

He pulled ahead of the Governor in overall favorability by 10 percentage points, according to the New York Post:

Upstate Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik is running neck-and-neck in a hypothetical race for governor against Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul, a new poll obtained by The Post claims.

The incumbent governor up for reelection next year would have the support of 43% of New Yorkers with Stefanik pulling 42% for Stefanik — as about 15% of the electorate is still undecided, according to the independent survey by right-leaning firm co/efficient.

In a potential Republican primary for governor in 2026, Stefanik has a dominant edge with 56% of voters, with Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler receiving only 9% and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman with 8%, the poll found.

Hochul had only a 30% approval rating among the 1,163 likely voters, while 57% disapproved in the survey. President Trump fared much better in the poll, with a 44% favorability rating among New York voters while and 49% disapproved.

The governor’s tanking favorability numbers were a far worse result than the 44% favorability reported in a Siena College poll just released on Tuesday. That survey also reported Stefanik with a sizable but tighter lead — with 35% support of GOP voters to 22% for Lawler and 11% for Blakeman.

“Hochul’s re-elect score further highlights her inherent vulnerability,” said co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce.

Rep. Stefanik just smiled this week during an appearance on Fox Business when Maria Bartiromo openly said everyone knows she’s going to run.

The Fox News host also mentioned Stefanik’s own statements claiming to be the best person positioned to take Democrat Kathy Hochul out of the NY Governor’s Mansion.

Stefanik fixated on the one big issue that likely drove the new poll numbers; those out-of-control New York taxes.

Here’s a clip of that conversation with the possible next Gov. of New York:

Initially, President Trump nominated Stefanik to be his Ambassador to the UN.

That fell through when the Republican majority in the House seemed a little thin for the battles necessary to pass legislation like… this morning’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’.

As it turns out, the decision to pull her out of that nomination may impact more than the GOP House majority.

Stefanik’s rock solid relationship with President Trump — who obviously trusts her explicitly — can only help her in the upcoming race for NY Governor.

Particularly when the President has a better approval rating among NY voters than NY’s own Governor!

That favorability rating is partly a result of New York’s stringent gun laws, and Gov. Hochul’s infringement on the Second Amendment.

Just last week, Rep. Stefanik said she informed AG Pam Bondi about those Constitutional infringements:

I know from discussions I’ve had with friends in New York — they feel literally oppressed when it comes to the gun restrictions in their state.

The feeling of loosing freedoms is doubtless adding to Gov. Hochul’s slip in the polls, and Stefanik’s latest boost.

Gov. Hochul has actually dropped 10 points since the last NY polling only a month ago, according to Fox News:

A Siena College poll released on Tuesday also suggests that Rep. Elise Stefanik is the polling frontrunner among three major Republicans considering runs for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, in the race to challenge Hochul next year.

According to the poll, which was conducted May 12-15, 36% of registered voters in New York state said they would vote to re-elect Hochul to a second four-year term, with a majority (55%) saying they wanted someone else.

It is a 10-point negative movement for Hochul compared to Siena’s April survey, when 39% of those questioned said they were prepared to vote to re-elect the governor and 48% who wanted someone else.

The percentage of voters who prefer another candidate jumps to 64% among independents and 82% among Republicans in blue state New York.

In July of last year, Hochul announced her intention to run for re-election in 2026.

Stefanik, who is part of the House Republican leadership and a strong supporter and ally of President Donald Trump, has said she is seriously considering a run for governor.

It is amazing to realize that if New York held elections today, there would be a 50-50 shot that a hardcore MAGA personality would walk away the winner.

Shortly after President Trump’s victory in November — before he ever set foot in the White House again — we started talking about the ‘Trump Factor’.

Usage of that phrase has fallen off the radar a bit over the last few months, but I don’t think the impact has.

The TRUMP FACTOR is a real thing; but it is caused by something even more foundational than just his leadership ability or determination.

The driving force of the “Trump Factor” is that it’s based on reality, but simultaneously fixated on the POTENTIAL CHANGE that could be.

In New York, with Gov. Hochul running the show… the possibility of change in the form of Elise Stefanik EMBODIES that concept.

Rep. Elise Stefanik IS the “Trump Factor” in human form, as far as voters in New York are concerned.

And if Gov. Hochul thinks these numbers were bad… she shouldn’t hold her breath for better numbers next month.

Just wait.

Things can always get worse, as long as a Democrat is running the show.





Source
Las Vegas News Magazine

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