Oil costs, worry of Trump? China mysteriously decreased warplane exercise close to Taiwan

NEW TAIPEI CITY, Taiwan — Could it be high fuel prices, or a desire to avoid upsetting U.S. President Donald Trump? What about China’s annual political confab in early March? Analysts have offered different explanations for a recent trend: a net reduction in daily Chinese fighter plane activity near Taiwan over the past three weeks.

While the People’s Liberation Army has said nothing of the drop in activity near the self-ruled island that China claims as its own – flyby data comes from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense – analysts point to a confluence of likely reasons led by political calculations.

China would hope not to anger the U.S. president before he meets with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, especially with Trump tied up in the Iran war, said Alexander Huang, a Taiwanese university professor and chairman of the Council of Strategic and Wargaming Studies in Taipei.

The two leaders’ summit is expected in late April.

Beijing has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan for more than seven decades and threatened use of force to take it, if necessary. Washington sells arms to the island, which it sees as an informal ally in the Western Pacific along with Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. A 1979 act of Congress allows the United States to help defend Taiwan, if attacked.

But the drop in warplane activity was probably not a “concession” to Trump, said Denny Roy, senior fellow at the East-West Center think tank in Hawaii.

“If anything, Beijing would want to remind Trump that tensions are high over Taiwan and would argue that to lower tensions the US must reduce its support for Taipei,” Roy said.

China’s March 4-11 Two Sessions, an annual event in Beijing where delegates from around the country examine work reports and approve laws, could have focused China’s leadership away from military activity in the Taiwan Strait, Huang said. He said the air force may have lacked a clear mandate for that period, leading to fewer flights.

“While there has been much speculation on the decline in incursions, it’s all the case that PLA military activity declines ahead of the Two Sessions,” said Brian Hioe, non-resident fellow at the Taiwan Research Hub of the University of Nottingham.

China’s removal of two top generals including a senior vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission in January may have created a “residual” effect that dented air exercises near Taiwan, Huang added.

Since the start of March, the Taiwanese defense ministry logged as few as two PLA aircraft sorties on three days since March 7, down from usually a dozen or more per day before March.

Other daily sortie counts in March ranged from three to eight, though with odd spikes into low double digits.

The sorties usually fly over waters near Taiwan, which sits across a strait 160 kilometers (99 miles) from China. Analysts have described aircraft maneuvers as “grey zone tactics” aimed at intimidating Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, who takes a dim view of Beijing.

Oil price hikes due to conflict in the Middle East would deter but not stop the Chinese warplane activity since Beijing can absorb the cost, analysts say. Jet fuel prices have risen more than 80% during the conflict.

“It’s definitely a waste of energy and of course a burden, but they wouldn’t have the same concern as in a democratic country,” said Huang Chung-ting, an associate research fellow with the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei.

Taiwanese officials aren’t guessing the reasons.

Shen Yu-chung, deputy minister of the Taiwan government’s Mainland Affairs Council said on March 10 that “we fear that only China would know” the reason for the recent letup in activity.

PLA aircraft over the three days ending on March 19 showed renewed activity, the Taiwan defense ministry said via X. It reported 28 sorties in the 24 hours ending at 6 a.m. on Tuesday, 36 aircraft by Wednesday morning and 12 planes at the same time on Thursday.

A resumption to the norm does not mean more than before the hiatus, Hioe said.

“It is important not to see a return to regular activity as large-scale military exercises, as some media reports have framed it,” he said.