NFL Week 17 futures betting odds: Super Bowl, MVP and more
With just two weeks remaining in the season, several awards markets remain up for grabs, including MVP, where Brock Purdy went from heavy favorite to a longshot after struggling on Christmas night. Here are how the awards markets shape up as the NFL enters the closing stretch.
Favorite: Lamar Jackson (-180)
Last week’s favorite: Brock Purdy (-215)
What a difference one game can make. Brock Purdy was -215 early last week and was -250 prior to his Monday Night Football showdown against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. But after four interceptions, Purdy went from the odds-on favorite to fifth in the market. Purdy is now 14-to-1, behind Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen. Dak Prescott, who was the favorite entering Week 15, has even longer odds at 18-1.
Jackson is now favored for the first time all season in this market despite ranking eighth in Total QBR, 15th in passing yards and tied for 14th in passing touchdowns. Even counting his rushing touchdowns, he still ranks outside the top 10 in total touchdowns. However, if the Ravens beat the Dolphins at home this week, they clinch the No. 1 seed and Jackson likely sits in Week 18. As volatile as this market has been all season, a Ravens victory this week as -190 favorites could wrap up this award for Jackson.
If Jackson loses, this award becomes very murky. The Dolphins would have the inside track at the No. 1 seed, but Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill likely split votes. Christian McCaffrey could become the favorite, but he could still split votes with Purdy. Josh Allen leads the NFL in combined touchdowns, but the Bills would be eliminated from the AFC East race. McCaffrey seems like the main beneficiary, but Jackson still may have a chance, even with a loss.
Offensive Player of the Year
Christian McCaffrey expanded his lead in this race despite the 49ers’ loss last week. McCaffrey is now the second favorite to win MVP as well, leapfrogging Brock Purdy, so this could be a way voters look to reward him for his elite season. McCaffrey has nine more touchdowns than Hill and 276 more yards from scrimmage.
However, Hill is still very much alive in this market. He needs 303 yards to tie Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record, which will be difficult but is certainly not impossible. Plus, the Dolphins still have a path at the one seed if they win out with two marquee games against the Ravens and Bills. McCaffrey has easier games to pad his statistics, facing the Commanders and Rams, but Hill will have far more eyeballs on him. McCaffrey is a deserving favorite, but Hill can still chase him down.
Defensive Player of the Year
Favorite: Micah Parsons (+100)
Last week’s favorite: Parsons (+100)
The Defensive Player of the Year race has remained relatively stagnant for a long time with Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt the three favorites. Watt has the best statistics, but ESPN Analytics gives his Steelers a 12% chance to make the playoffs, and eight straight winners of this award have made the playoffs.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Favorite: C.J. Stroud (-1600)
Last week’s favorite: Stroud (-10000)
While C.J. Stroud remains an overwhelming favorite, his price shifted from -10000 to -1600 after missing his second straight game with a concussion. Puka Nacua moved from 20-1 to +550 after catching 11 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown last week. Nacua now needs just nine receptions and 147 yards to break the NFL rookie receiving records in both categories.
Historically, close races have almost always gone to the quarterbacks, including in 2020 when Justin Jefferson recorded 1,400 yards but only got 18% of the vote against Justin Herbert. Stroud still ranks in the top 12 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns despite missing the last two games. If he returns and plays at a similar level, he will likely win, but if he remains out, Nacua has a chance to steal this with a record-breaking season.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Favorite: Jalen Carter (-10000)
Last week’s favorite: Carter (-5000)
Jalen Carter’s counting stats don’t stand out enough to be worthy of a -10000 favorite, but no other candidates have stepped up to challenge Carter’s status, especially with recent injuries to Will Anderson Jr. and Devon Witherspoon. It is hard to see anyone beating Carter at this point, and his price reflects that.
Coach of the Year
For the first time since prior to Week 4, Dan Campbell is not favored to win Coach of the Year. Instead, Kevin Stefanski is now the favorite, moving from +650 to +145 after the Browns beat DeMeco Ryans and the Texans. Stefanski already has led the Browns to a three-win improvement despite needing four different starting quarterbacks. ESPN Analytics give Stefanski a 36% chance to win out, and if he does that, he seems to be the likely winner.
Campbell’s odds also shortened to +240. If the other improvement coaches struggle down the stretch, Campbell can still win this, but his odds have been too short for months, and that remains the case at +240. Shane Steichen and DeMeco Ryans both took losses last week, but neither is out of this race. The Colts are +260 to win the division, and the Texans are +400. If either coach wins the AFC South, they have strong cases to challenge Stefanski and Campbell.
Comeback Player of the Year
Favorite: Damar Hamlin (-350)
Last week’s favorite: Hamlin (-550)
Damar Hamlin has gone wire-to-wire as the Comeback Player of the Year favorite, but he finally has some competition in this market. Joe Flacco opened at 80-1 on December 11, but in just over two weeks, he has become the second favorite in this market at +320, with Baker Mayfield (+900) also below 10-1.
Hamlin has played in five games and has just 17 defensive snaps all season. There is no historical example of a winner of this award playing that few snaps. There are likely some voters who will vote for Hamlin regardless of how much he plays, but others may be skeptical. It’s impossible to know for sure, despite the market pricing Hamlin like he is an extremely likely winner. If Micah Hyde remains out, Hamlin will likely remain active on special teams, but he needs another injury to get on the field on defense.
Flacco coming off his couch midseason to throw for 1,307 yards and 10 touchdowns in four games for a likely playoff team is an extremely strong Comeback Player of the Year narrative. Baker Mayfield’s case is like Geno Smith’s last season, bouncing back from previous struggles to lead a team to the playoffs.
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