NFL Week 1 betting by the numbers: Survivor chaos, and a six-figure bet saved in Miami

Circa Survivor, a high-stakes NFL betting contest hosted by a Las Vegas casino, has a $1,000 buy-in and a $14.2 million grand prize. The competition, which requires contestants to pick an outright NFL winner each week of the season, attracted a record 14,266 entries this year. By the start of the 4 p.m. ET games, many of them were left stunned.

4,895: Entries eliminated for siding with Cincinnati

Forty-five contestants failed to submit their Week 1 selection by the deadline. Approximately one-third of the field took the Cincinnati Bengals, the most popular pick of the day. All of them were eliminated in the opening week of the season.

The New England Patriots, 7.5-point road underdogs, topped the Bengals 16-10 in the biggest Week 1 upset (in terms of point spread) since 2018. It was costly not only for survivor pool contestants, but also for the betting public in general. More bets were placed — and more money was wagered — on the Bengals to win this game outright than any other team at both ESPN BET and DraftKings.

“It was significant,” Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, said of the Patriots pulling off the upset. “Obviously, you get the biggest favorite on the board beat straight up in Week 1, that’s a good start for the book.”

Sportsbooks pegged New England as one of the worst teams in the league entering the season. The over/under on the Patriots’ win total this season was set at 4.5, the lowest of any team. About 90% of the money wagered on New England’s win total was on the under at BetMGM. Despite the opening upset, expectations for the Patriots remain low.

“Everyone’s writing off the Patriots, including us,” Mucklow told ESPN on Sunday. “We’re going to be Patriots fans every week.”

The Patriots are now +750 to make the playoffs at ESPN BET.

130: Tyreek Hill‘s receiving yards in the Miami Dolphins’ win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, most of any player Sunday

Hill made headlines before any games kicked off Sunday when he was detained by police and cited with reckless driving, per ESPN’s Jeff Darlington. The Dolphins wide receiver went on to put up one of Sunday’s best performances, much to the benefit of many bettors.

In the hours before kickoff, Hill was ESPN BET’s most bet player to score a touchdown and the second-most bet for all other props at over 80 receiving yards, trailing only Trevor Lawrence’s over 200 passing yards. At BetMGM, Hill garnered the second-most tickets to score a touchdown at -125 odds.

It took until the second half, but Hill ultimately delivered for bettors, hauling in an 80-yard TD reception in the third quarter to instantly cash both props. His final receiving yards tally was also enough to cover most alternate lines.

.527: Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s straight-up record as an underdog

Tomlin is the only coach in the Super Bowl era to have an outright winning record as an underdog (minimum 30 games). Would the wins keep coming in 2024?

The Steelers entered the season with doubts at quarterback, which were only amplified when previously named starter Russell Wilson was forced to the inactive list for Sunday’s road opener against the Atlanta Falcons due to a calf injury. Tomlin turned to Justin Fields for the start, which shifted the line on the Steelers from +3.5 to +4 or +4.5, depending on the sportsbook.

“Coming into the season, Wilson and Fields were seen as largely interchangeable, with Wilson viewed as slightly more valuable,” a trading spokesperson for ESPN BET told ESPN. “Overall, there wasn’t a large adjustment given the outlook for the Steelers today and the amount of variables for both teams coming into the week.”

All the same, the Falcons were a hot commodity in the betting markets, attracting the fifth-most spread tickets at ESPN BET and the 11th-highest handle at DraftKings. Atlanta also had 72% of the spread handle at BetMGM and 51% at FanDuel.

Nevertheless, Tomlin worked his underdog magic once again, winning an 18-10 battle for the Steelers — a low-scoring game that also cashed the under at 41.5, one of the most bet unders of the day at BetMGM.

72.7: percentage of bets made on Dallas Cowboys at ESPN BET

Yes, at ESPN BET, 72.7% of bets and 71.6% of the total amount wagered were on the Cowboys to cover the spread as small underdogs. Dak Prescott followed up his signing of a reported $240 million contract extension by leading the Cowboys to a 33-17 win over the Cleveland Browns.

“Dallas was a very public side in the afternoon,” John Murray, executive director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. “They got us on that game.”

The public also fared well on the Thursday and Friday standalone games. The Kansas City Chiefs covered the spread in a 27-20 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, and the Philadelphia Eagles covered in a 34-29 win over the Green Bay Packers on Friday.

“[Friday] was a [disaster],” Joe Brennan, executive chairman for Prime Sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey, told ESPN. “We got beat on both pregame and live, though most of the damage was on the pregame money line and spread. We lost on everything for the game. Ouch.”

The rest of Week 1, by the numbers

+1000: Josh Allen’s odds to win MVP

This was before he threw for 232 yards and two touchdowns, rushing for an additional 39 yards and two scores in the Buffalo Bills’ win over the Arizona Cardinals. The massive performance vaulted him to +550 at ESPN BET, where he is now the second favorite, behind only Patrick Mahomes (+375).

$302,000: Largest reported bet Sunday at Caesars Sportsbook

This bet was on the Dolphins -2.5 over the Jaguars. The bettor bought the point spread down from 3.5 to 2.5 at a price of -151, a savvy move as it turns out. The Dolphins won 20-17. According to Caesars, the same bettor placed a $178,000 money-line bet on the Dolphins at -178 odds and netted a $300,000 profit on the two wagers.

-5.5: Opening point spread on the Monday night matchup between the favored San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets

The line opened May 20 at ESPN BET and has ticked down toward the Jets. As of Sunday night, the 49ers were 3.5-point favorites.

-4.5: Early Week 2 line favoring the Packers over the visiting Indianapolis Colts

However, this was before Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love went down with a knee injury late against the Eagles in Week 1. When the line was reposted, with Love ruled out with a sprained MCL and backup Malik Willis expected to start, the Colts were 3-point favorites.

A spokesperson for ESPN BET said the difference between Love and Willis was “about a touchdown.”

Joey Feazel, sports trader for Caesars Sportsbook, said he believes the adjustment to the line was an overreaction and adds, “I expect it to come back down [toward the Packers] by game time.”

3: Number of outright wins by underdogs in Week 1

Favorites have gone a combined 8-7 against the spread, with eight overs and seven unders. The three ‘dogs to win outright were the Cowboys (+2) over the Browns, the Steelers (+4.5) over the Falcons and the Patriots (+7.5) over the Bengals.