NFL playoff image projections: Up to date probabilities to make the postseason, win divisions
We’re through Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season, and we’re taking a quick look at the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LX as things stand right now. Which teams have the best chances to make the 14-team playoff field? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get in?
We used ESPN’s Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl.
Here’s everything you need right now.
Last update: Oct. 7 at 11:45 a.m. ET
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AFC picture | NFC picture
Projecting the AFC playoff field
The AFC appears more wide open than ever. The Bills got handed their first loss of the season by the Patriots, who now hold a wild-card spot in the conference. Anchored by a strong performance from QB Drake Maye and 146 yards from WR Stefon Diggs in his return to Buffalo, New England made a big postseason statement.
The Chiefs’ defeat at the hands of the Jaguars knocked Kansas City down in our playoff projections, and the Broncos are projected to win the AFC West. The Jags beat the Chiefs at home for the first time since 2009.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
The 49ers hold the highest projected playoff chances despite their injury woes across the board. Backup QB Mac Jones played one of the best games of his career against the Rams with a QBR of 70.2 and two passing touchdowns. San Francisco is in a good place while some of its sidelined starters (QB Brock Purdy and TE George Kittle, to name a few) work to get back on the field.
The Commanders are back in the picture after a key win over the Chargers in Week 5. Washington has been inconsistent this season (losses to the Falcons and Packers), and it needed an emphatic victory over a team with a winning record before trips to Kansas City and Philadelphia later this season and a home game against the Lions in Week 10.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 10-12, 2026: Wild-card round
Jan. 17-18: Divisional round
Jan. 25: AFC and NFC Championship Games
Feb. 8: Super Bowl LX (in Santa Clara, California)