NEW: John Cornyn Trails Ken Paxton By Whopping Margin In Hypothetical Primary Poll
A Republican primary showdown between Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn isn’t even on the ballot yet—but if it were, the results could be devastating for Cornyn.
A new poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates between January 28 and February 2, of 600 likely Republican primary voters in Texas, shows that Paxton would demolish the longtime senator in a head-to-head matchup for U.S. Senate.
On the initial ballot, before any information is provided, Paxton leads Cornyn 53% to 28%. After respondents are given more context and background on the two candidates, that lead balloons to 70% for Paxton and a dismal 14% for Cornyn.
Paxton, who has not yet formally announced his candidacy, has openly floated the idea of challenging Cornyn in the 2026 primary. He has said that such a decision would depend on his ability to secure substantial campaign funding.
Still, early numbers suggest that if he does enter the race, he could quickly become the frontrunner. Cornyn, for his part, has confirmed that he will seek re-election and remains confident in his chances, citing his long record of electoral victories.
But the numbers from this poll tell a different story. Cornyn’s total support—just 28% in the initial ballot and 14% after respondents were “informed”—shows a remarkable vulnerability for a sitting senator who has served in the upper chamber since 2002.
Ken Paxton
Among the informed group, just 9% said they would “definitely” vote for Cornyn. Paxton, by contrast, saw his “definite” support skyrocket from 38% to 54% between the initial and informed ballot.
The poll shows a potential grassroots insurgency against establishment Republicans, a trend that has defined much of the post-2020 GOP landscape. Paxton, despite facing legal challenges and even an impeachment trial, has remained a popular figure among the party’s base.
Born in North Dakota and raised in Texas, Paxton served in the Texas House and Senate before being elected as the state’s Attorney General in 2014. Though his tenure has been marred by indictments and investigations—including a high-profile impeachment in 2023 that ended in acquittal—Paxton has managed to survive and thrive politically.
Senator John Cornyn speaking at the 2012 CPAC in Washington, D.C.
Cornyn, in contrast, has held almost every major legal and legislative post in Texas over the past four decades, from state judge to attorney general to U.S. senator. He served as Senate Majority Whip from 2013 to 2019 and was a contender for Senate Majority Leader in late 2024, ultimately losing to John Thune.
But despite his deep resume and years of service, Cornyn is clearly facing a perception problem. Whether it’s his votes on controversial legislation, perceived distance from the conservative grassroots, or his ties to GOP leadership in Washington, something isn’t connecting with voters.
If Paxton jumps in, Cornyn could be facing the political fight of his life.
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