MLB Power Rankings: Top 5 changes again as season enters stretch run
We’re now in the stretch run, as the 2024 MLB season enters September and teams make their final pushes for the postseason. In fact, some of the league’s top clubs are already on their way to clinching a playoff berth — potentially as soon as next week.
The Astros and Cubs are examples of how far a team can go if it kicks into high gear to finish out the season. Houston has been hot since the All-Star break, helping it to a comfortable lead over Seattle and all but guaranteeing another division title despite the team’s less-than-stellar start to 2024. Meanwhile, thanks to a stretch of nine wins in 10 games to end August, Chicago has at least gotten itself back into the conversation for a wild-card spot. The Cubs would have to keep up this momentum to make that a reality, but they’re in a much better spot than they were a few weeks ago.
Division titles and wild-card berths are still up for grabs, so don’t expect teams to slow down any time soon — not in a year without a clear No. 1 club, which is highlighted by the continued changes to our top five this week.
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with observations for all 30 teams.
Week 22 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 84-56
Previous ranking: 1
The Dodgers came out of Labor Day weekend with some breathing room in the National League West, having taken three of four on the road against the division-rival Diamondbacks. It was quite the encouraging series for the Dodgers, who scored 17 runs in 20 innings against Arizona’s four starters. But it didn’t end without another injury to a starting pitcher. This time it was Clayton Kershaw, who went back on the injured list with a bone spur in his left big toe. The Dodgers don’t expect him to be out long, but they have layered in another uncertainty to a rotation chock full of them. On the bright side: Their offense is flat-out scary once again, with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman rolling together at the top and so many others contributing thereafter. — Gonzalez
Record: 83-56
Previous ranking: 3
The Phillies and the Braves split the first two games in this past weekend’s four-game series before Zack Wheeler delivered a gem on Saturday with seven scoreless innings to beat Max Fried. On Sunday, Nick Castellanos’ 11th-inning single with two outs delivered the walk-off run, with Carlos Estevez pitching two scoreless innings while twice escaping the ghost runner. On Tuesday, the Phillies then rallied from a 6-1 first-inning deficit to beat the Blue Jays 10-9 as Kyle Schwarber blasted the go-ahead three-run homer in the ninth, part of a Herculean three-homer, 5-for-6 day with six RBIs.
Schwarber became the first player in Phillies history with two three-homer games in one season and just the 27th in MLB history with a game featuring at least 3 home runs, 5 hits and 6 RBIs (Mike Schmidt, during his four-homer game in 1976, is the only other Phillies player to reach those numbers). — Schoenfield
Record: 80-60
Previous ranking: 2
Rosters expanded on Sunday, and to the chagrin of Yankees fans, top prospect Jasson Domínguez remained in Triple-A. Domínguez has shined in the minors this season when healthy, batting .307 with nine home runs and an .857 OPS across three levels. The switch-hitting outfielder batted fifth in his only major league game this season as the 27th man for the Little League Classic last month, illustrating where Yankees brass believe he fits on the roster.
But manager Aaron Boone gave two primary reasons for not calling him up: He wouldn’t play every day for the Yankees and his season has been disjointed by injuries. Ultimately, it comes down to the Yankees preferring to give the struggling Alex Verdugo more chances to rebound before moving on. Remember, Sept. 1 was only the first day to expand rosters, not the deadline. Domínguez could still very well be in pinstripes before the end of the regular season — and wear them into October. — Castillo
Record: 81-59
Previous ranking: 6
Jackson Chourio continues to mash baseballs in the absence of Christian Yelich, giving Milwaukee lethal pop at the top of the lineup. He hit a grand slam on Monday in a 9-3 win over St. Louis while also walking three times. Exploits like that might give some Rookie of the Year voters extra pause before clicking on Paul Skenes or Jackson Merrill when voting begins. Chourio won’t win the award, but his production — which took off just as Yelich went down with his back injury — could be a godsend for the Brewers in the postseason. In fact, since the latter player was placed on the IL, Chourio has an OPS just under 1.000. — Rogers
Record: 81-60
Previous ranking: 4
The Orioles’ starting rotation was already a cause for concern before Corbin Burnes had the worst stretch of his career last month. The right-hander gave up 28 runs (21 earned) over 25⅔ innings in five starts. With a month remaining until the postseason — and two before hitting free agency — alarms sounded. In his last start, Burnes gave up two runs (one earned) across five innings, but he had just four strikeouts — further lowering the lowest strikeout rate of his career — and it was against the abysmal White Sox. He’ll have to bounce back to ace status to give Baltimore any chance of winning a World Series. — Castillo
Record: 80-61
Previous ranking: 7
It’s hard to overstate how impressive it was that the Padres won 28 of their first 40 games after the All-Star break without arguably their best player. That player, Fernando Tatis Jr., finally rejoined the team on Monday after a 10½-week absence prompted by a stress reaction in his right femur. Yu Darvish returned on Wednesday from a 14-week absence that was prompted by a family issue and an elbow injury. The Padres’ offense was rolling along nicely without Tatis, but it could really use his dynamic speed-and-power combination. The rotation was getting a boost from Joe Musgrove’s recent resurgence, but it could use another frontline arm like Darvish. The Padres are basically whole for the stretch run. And they seem dangerous. — Gonzalez
Record: 75-64
Previous ranking: 10
How hot is the Houston rotation? Hot enough that it’s uncertain that the return of future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander makes the group better — though, Wednesday’s first-inning meltdown might have proven otherwise. The Astros’ rotation ERA since the trade deadline — when they acquired red-hot lefty Yusei Kikuchi — is 3.10. All five starters have done the job, before Spencer Arrighetti gave up nine runs in ⅔ innings in his start on Wednesday. Among qualified starters since Aug. 1, Hunter Brown ranks first in ERA (1.45), just ahead of third-place Framber Valdez (1.59). Kikuchi (2.57, 12th) and Ronel Blanco (3.38) are also all rolling, as was Arrighetti, who ranked 12th with a 1.95 ERA before his most recent start and is now 56th. Reports are that with Verlander off the IL, Blanco will be the odd man out — for now. — Doolittle
Record: 80-60
Previous ranking: 8
After the Royals tied the Guardians for first place in the American League Central last Tuesday, Cleveland quickly pulled back ahead to a safe lead in the division, taking the final game of that series from the Royals and then winning back-to-back series against Pittsburgh and Kansas City this week.
The rotation reeled off three great starts in a row. Alex Cobb tossed six scoreless innings against Pittsburgh on Sunday, taking a perfect game into the seventh. Gavin Williams allowed one hit and one run in seven frames to beat the Royals the next day, and then Tanner Bibee allowed two hits and one run over six innings in Tuesday’s win. Actually, make it four great starts in a row — Matthew Boyd allowed four hits and one run in six innings although got the loss Saturday. That’s three runs and nine hits over 25 innings. — Schoenfield
Record: 79-61
Previous ranking: 5
A deflating Labor Day weekend that saw them lose three of four to the Dodgers at home, virtually putting the division out of reach, was met with some welcomed news on Tuesday: Christian Walker, who should’ve probably been an All-Star first baseman this year, returned to the lineup after missing the past five weeks with an oblique strain. This is a good time to appreciate Josh Bell, a scramble pickup when Walker went down near the end of July. In 28 games as Walker’s replacement, Bell slashed .283/.356/.453, helping a shorthanded D-backs offense — also without Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno and, now, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — lead the majors in OPS since the All-Star break. Even with Walker back, Bell will continue to draw starts against lefties. His bat has been too good to sit. — Gonzalez
Record: 76-63
Previous ranking: 12
After losing three of four to the Phillies, it’s all about holding on to the wild-card spot now as that series dropped the Braves seven games back in the division. Chris Sale — who didn’t pitch in the Philadelphia series — delivered another great effort on Tuesday, tossing seven scoreless innings to beat the Rockies and maintain his lead in the NL for the pitching Triple Crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts). Sale has 15 straight starts allowing two earned runs or fewer, the longest such streak in Braves history. He also passed 200 strikeouts, his eighth such season, joining Randy Johnson (13) and Steve Carlton (eight) as the only lefties with that many 200-K seasons. — Schoenfield
Record: 75-64
Previous ranking: 11
Talent has never been the concern for Royce Lewis. The former No. 1 overall pick has proven in a short time that he has the ability to become one of baseball’s elite hitters. The question has always been his health. This week, however, another emerged: Where is Lewis going to play in the field? Drafted as a shortstop, Lewis became a full-time third baseman at the major-league level only last season after Minnesota signed Carlos Correa. This week, he made his first start at second base after having throwing issues at third. Lewis didn’t seem keen to the change — he offered a “no comment” when asked after making his debut at second — but the Twins are moving forward with it for now. — Castillo
Record: 76-65
Previous ranking: 9
Let’s say the trajectory of the Royals’ season was like that of a typical coyote versus roadrunner pursuit. Imagine the persistent coyote gaining ground on the roadrunner, little by little, until at last he has it cornered against the rocky hillside of a mountain terrace. Then, the moment the coyote realizes that he’s won his chase, the terrace gives way and the coyote tumbles into a free fall, spiraling into what appears to be a bottomless void.
It took months for the Royals to catch the Guardians in the division, but the very moment they did, Kansas City’s season took an abrupt about-face. Nothing went right for the Royals during a faceplant that reached seven games on Tuesday before a win Wednesday stopped it. The one saving grace of the skid: A similar slump by the Red Sox behind them in the standings means the Royals still have a buffer in the wild-card race. At some point, maintaining that buffer will entail winning a few games. — Doolittle
Record: 76-64
Previous ranking: 13
The Mets did what they had to do — sweeping the White Sox over the weekend and then extending their win streak to six games with two wins over the Red Sox — and they’re now neck-and-neck with the Braves for the third wild card. Francisco Lindor continues to make his MVP case and blasted his 30th home run on Tuesday, joining Alex Rodriguez (seven) and Ernie Banks (five) as the only shortstops with five 30-homer seasons. David Peterson also fanned 11 in that win on his birthday — the most strikeouts ever for a Mets pitcher on his birthday. Peterson is 4-0 with a 1.81 ERA over his past seven starts. — Schoenfield
Record: 72-68
Previous ranking: 17
The development of center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and catcher Miguel Amaya have lengthened the Cubs’ lineup, helping them score runs in bunches on a recent 8-1 road trip. It leads to a philosophical question for next season: Can they keep attempting to win with a good 26-man roster or do they need to move a few players for a star — if one becomes available? The latter is the easiest way back to the postseason as too many things have to go right for an average nine-man lineup to be clicking, as opposed to having a couple of dangerous thumpers in the middle of it. But until Chicago acquires one, it will simply have to be pleased with the progress. — Rogers
Record: 70-70
Previous ranking: 14
Boston’s struggles over the past month have corresponded with a surprising downturn for Rafael Devers. The All-Star third baseman was slashing .185/.252/.324 with three home runs since Aug. 3. His OPS for the season has sunk from .992 to .898. His batting average is also down to .277 from .304. Shoulder pain has been a factor; he missed three games with a shoulder injury before returning to go 1-for-21 over five games. The Red Sox, as a result, have lost five straight games. Their playoff hopes are sinking fast. — Castillo
Record: 70-70
Previous ranking: 18
Perhaps the biggest disappointment for the Tigers this year is that the top of the order they dreamed about didn’t necessarily pan out. The organization had high hopes for a foursome of Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter — but Torkelson and Meadows were sent to the minors at midseason, Carpenter missed close to three months with a stress fracture in his back, and Greene, an All-Star thanks to a strong first half, just went through a brutal month of August. On Sunday, though, the four of them provided all the Tigers’ production in a win over the Red Sox. It was a sign that perhaps next year the Tigers will get the kind of production they hoped for. — Gonzalez
Record: 70-70
Previous ranking: 15
Another losing week saw the Mariners dip below .500 for the first time since April 20 as their playoff chances decreased well into the single digits. Ironically, the punchless offense has been modestly more productive of late only for that improvement to overlap with a decline by a Seattle pitching staff that has carried the load since Opening Day. Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller have continued to shine, while Luis Castillo has more or less treaded water. But Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, both positioned for Cy Young runs not that long ago, have fallen off. Kirby in particular has been getting blitzed. Over six starts since the beginning of August, Kirby has a 6.10 ERA and a 5.74 FIP. — Doolittle
Record: 71-69
Previous ranking: 19
Jordan Walker’s return from the minors has been mostly quiet so far, as the 22-year-old is still figuring things out in the big leagues. The ultra-talented outfielder was 7-for-28 with a home run and 10 punchouts over his first eight games after spending several months at Triple-A this season. But he lit up the box score over the weekend in New York when he went 5-for-5 with a home run while scoring four times. Walker is the future in St. Louis, so the Cardinals are giving him valuable at-bats as they begin to play out the string. A once promising run to wild-card contention has faded into focusing on building blocks for next season. — Rogers
Record: 68-72
Previous ranking: 16
The Giants won their fourth consecutive game on Aug. 10, putting them three games above .500 and 1.5 games back of a playoff spot. It seemed as if they might make a legitimate late-season push. Since then they’ve gone 7-14 while losing their last four series to the Mariners, Brewers, Marlins — yes, Marlins — and D-backs. Any postseason hopes have long been dashed — largely because of their offense. The Giants have OPS’d .644 over their past 21 games, which qualified as the most important stretch of their season. They’ve scored four runs or less in 15 of those games. — Gonzalez
Record: 69-70
Previous ranking: 20
Junior Caminero is young enough to consider Manny Machado a hero growing up in the Dominican Republic. The Rays’ top prospect — and one of the top in all of baseball — met Machado as a boy when Machado starred for the Orioles. Caminero wears No. 13 because of Machado. Over the weekend, Caminero suited up opposite his favorite player, starting at third base against Machado’s Padres. The 21-year-old choked up when asked about the moment in an interview, calling it a dream come true. With the Rays’ sights set on 2025, Caminero is producing in his second major league stint, slashing .263/.349/.447 with three home runs in 21 games. — Castillo
Record: 67-74
Previous ranking: 21
Bowden Francis’ performance in August was one of the few positives in a dismal season up north. The 28-year-old right-hander recorded a 1.06 ERA in 34 innings across five starts, highlighted by taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Angels. The results were good enough for Francis to win AL pitcher of the month. He had primarily been used as a reliever before returning to the rotation last month, starting just four games while making 14 relief appearances. It’s a little too late for 2024, but Francis might be a building block for 2025. — Castillo
Record: 67-73
Previous ranking: 22
Cincinnati had two of its prospects make their MLB debuts this past week. Last year’s first-round pick, Rhett Lowder, threw four innings of one-run ball against the Brewers over the weekend while 2019 pick Brandon Williamson made it through 3⅓ innings and gave up two runs two days later. Not unlike this year, the Reds should go into the 2025 season with plenty of talent but perhaps an unclear path in how it all should come together. That’s what their offseason should be about — while potentially adding a true veteran star/leader instead of adding around the margins like they did this past winter. — Rogers
Record: 67-73
Previous ranking: 23
It’s too late for Wyatt Langford to make a run at the AL Rookie of the Year award, an honor that many saw him as the favorite to land before the season. A slow start that lingered into June sunk his chances in that tepid race. Since then, Langford has been up and down, mixing flashes of his immense potential with prolonged downturns. There’s little reason to be concerned long-term, but a strong finish would certainly help generate some excitement headed into the winter. Langford’s start in September indicates he’s intent on a robust finishing kick. The uptick was highlighted when he mashed a hanging slider from Clay Holmes for a winning grand slam against the Yankees on Tuesday. The ball left Langford’s bat at over 109 mph, highlighting something he’s exhibited all along: He hits the ball hard. — Doolittle
Record: 65-74
Previous ranking: 24
Pittsburgh is keeping close tabs on pitchers Jared Jones and Paul Skenes as it plays out the string, but shutting the pair down isn’t on the table just yet. Jones just returned from injury, so manager Derek Shelton wants him to finish the season and at least have his body feel what the six-month grind is all about — even if he wasn’t making every start. Shelton won’t go into detail about Skenes, but the Pirates won’t mess with their prized possession. His pitch count and stuff is being monitored closely from start to start. — Rogers
Record: 61-79
Previous ranking: 26
The longer Lawrence Butler stays hot, the less he looks like a hitter on a heater and the more he looks like someone who’s figured some things out. The delineation in Butler’s season is the beginning of July. Before that point, he was hitting .179 with two homers, eight RBIs and four steals in 52 games. Since then, Butler has hit .323 with 19 homers, 46 RBIs and nine steals, a spree which has included a pair of three-homer contests. During that span, Butler and teammate Brent Rooker, who has been outstanding all season, have combined for 100 weighted runs created, per Fangraphs. The only teammates with more: Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees (118). — Doolittle
Record: 62-77
Previous ranking: 25
Dylan Crews — the No. 12 prospect in Kiley McDaniel’s updated top 50 list in mid-August (though he ranks higher on MLB.com at No. 2 and Baseball America at No. 4) — homered last week in his third and fourth games with the Nationals, and has shown excellent speed and defense in right field (he could play center, although Jacob Young’s stellar defense keeps him there for now). Crews looks like he’ll be a solid contact hitter, so his ultimate upside is going to rest on two things: how much power he’ll develop and whether he’ll draw many walks to boost his OBP. While he had a more patient approach at LSU — or maybe he was simply pitched around — that hasn’t been the case in the minors or so far in his short stint in the majors. — Schoenfield
Record: 58-81
Previous ranking: 27
Reliever Ben Joyce has earned a lot of Web links thanks to his startling velocity readings, particularly when he set a Statcast record on a strikeout pitch with a 105.5 mph reading against the Dodgers’ Tommy Edman on Sept. 4. Since baseball isn’t a carnival game where Joyce wins a stuffed animal for lighting up the radar, of more interest is his baseball performance since taking over as the Angels’ highest-leverage reliever in the wake of the deal that sent Carlos Estevez to the Phillies. And that’s been pretty good. Since deadline day, Joyce has a 2.03 ERA with 14 whiffs and four walks over 13⅓ innings in 13 outings. He’s earned three holds and his first four big league saves. — Doolittle
Record: 52-87
Previous ranking: 29
Some new faces are getting a chance to play down the stretch. Connor Norby, acquired from the Orioles in the Trevor Rogers trade, has hit well in his first 13 games, with an OPS over 1.000 and three home runs. He’s primarily played third base, with a couple starts at second, and projects as a starting infielder for 2025. Outfielder Kyle Stowers, also part of that trade, has struggled to make contact. He’s not so young at 26 years old, so he probably projects as more of a fourth outfielder despite his power potential.
Griffin Conine, son of two-time Marlins All-Star Jeff Conine, has been playing right field and hit his first major league home run on Saturday. He’s 27 years old and was hitting .268/.350/.475 in Triple-A with a high strikeout rate, so he looks like a fringe major leaguer. — Schoenfield
Record: 51-89
Previous ranking: 28
It seemed as if they have been heading there since Opening Day, but the Rockies were officially eliminated from postseason contention on Tuesday, with a shutout loss at the hands of the Braves. It dropped them to a NL-worst 51-88. They need nine wins in September to avoid tying the franchise record for losses with 103, which they set last year. Seems pretty achievable, right? Well, they won less than that in April and June. Oh, and all eight of their remaining series will come against teams that entered play on Wednesday with winning records, including a combined 12 games against the Dodgers, D-backs and Brewers. — Gonzalez
Record: 32-109
Previous ranking: 30
The White Sox went “full White Sox” in a 9-0 loss to the Orioles on Tuesday. That’s the phrase O’s announcer Kevin Brown used in describing a bad collision between third baseman Miguel Vargas and left fielder Andrew Benintendi on a popup during the game. It was emblematic of how the White Sox have played all season. It’s one thing to be less talented than your opponents, but the reason they will break the all-time record for losses in a 162-game season is they stopped caring a long time ago. And they’re playing like it. — Rogers