JUST IN: Trump-Backed Candidate In ‘Dead Heat’ Race For Blue State Governorship, High Pollster Reveals

New Jersey’s high-profile gubernatorial race is coming down to the wire — and Republican Jack Ciattarelli is within striking distance.

A new Quantus Insights poll shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill clinging to a razor-thin 49% to 46% lead — well within the poll’s ±2.6% margin of error. When leaners are included, it’s 49.2% to 45.9%, a statistical dead heat. The survey, conducted Oct. 26–27 among 1,380 likely voters, paints a picture of a state split right down the middle.

This isn’t the New Jersey of Christie Whitman or Chris Christie. The state’s electorate has aged and tightened politically — 77% of voters are over 45, 36% are seniors, and women outnumber men 53% to 47%. Democrats still hold a registration edge at 44% to 34%, but the real action is in Central Jersey — the swing corridor that makes up 28% of the electorate. Whoever wins there wins the mansion.

North Jersey remains blue turf, South Jersey leans red, and the middle is up for grabs. Only 29% of voters had already cast ballots when the poll was taken, but Democrats are banking on votes early. About 35% of Democrats said they’d already voted, compared to just 24% of Republicans. Vote-by-mail remains their stronghold — 75% of Democrats’ early ballots were mailed, while only 45% of GOP ballots were.

Ciattarelli’s path runs through Election Day. Among voters planning to show up in person on Nov. 4, he leads 60% to 39%. Sherrill’s advantage comes from mail-in voters, where she dominates 76% to 19%. The result is a split-screen race — Democrats racking up ballots early, Republicans waiting to flood the polls.

When undecided voters were pushed to pick, 36% leaned toward a third-party candidate — a striking number in a two-way showdown. Ciattarelli draws 33% support from undecideds while Sherrill has 31%. This sliver of disenchanted voters, about 5% of the electorate, could tilt the race either way — or stay home altogether.

The energy is high on both sides. Seventy-two percent of likely voters say they’re more motivated than in past elections, with Republicans leading at 77% and Democrats close behind at 70%. The enthusiasm gap is narrow, but the GOP’s edge could matter if it turns into raw turnout.

Despite Sherrill’s narrow lead, most voters think Ciattarelli has the real momentum. Fifty-three percent believe their friends and neighbors are backing him, compared to 47% who say the same for Sherrill. Among Republicans, it’s a landslide perception — 83% say their circle is riding with Jack. That kind of quiet confidence can be the difference-maker when it’s time to pull the lever.

Sherrill’s edge is paper-thin, built on mail ballots and female turnout. Ciattarelli’s comeback depends on a red Election Day surge — especially from suburban men and Central Jersey voters. If either side lets up now, they’ll lose not by miles, but by inches. And right now, it’s Ciattarelli who looks like the one closing in.

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