JUST IN: New Senate Polling Crushes Democrats’ Hopes Of Retaining Upper Chamber

Fresh polling data paints a grim picture for the Democratic Party and its hopes of retaining control of the Senate in 2024. Internal polling leaked from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reveals key races in battleground states are leaning heavily toward Republican candidates, giving the GOP a clear path to reclaiming the upper chamber.

The memo obtained by POLITICO from October 13, and penned by NRSC strategist Jason Thielman, presents an overview of recent polling in major Senate races across the country. The results are encouraging for Republicans, showing competitive races in traditionally Democratic strongholds and giving their candidates a significant edge in states like Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

In Montana, the polling data shows Republican Tim Sheehy pulling comfortably ahead of Democrat incumbent Jon Tester by eight points, with a 50% to 42% lead. Sheehy’s favorability has surged, with a net increase of 11 points since July. In contrast, Tester’s approval rating has slipped underwater, with 48% of voters viewing him unfavorably. Tester, a long-time Democratic stalwart, now faces dwindling opportunities to reshape his image, with only 1% of voters unaware of him and just 5% holding no opinion.

Ohio’s Senate race also indicates trouble for Democrats, with Republican Bernie Moreno holding a slim 2-point lead over Democrat incumbent Sherrod Brown. Moreno’s rise comes alongside strong support for Donald Trump in the state, where Trump leads Kamala Harris by 11 points in the presidential race. Brown, once considered a Democratic powerhouse, now finds his favorability slipping, with 47% of Ohio voters holding an unfavorable view of him despite his record-high spending of over $25 million in this race.

Republicans are seeing another close contest in Wisconsin, where Republican candidate Eric Hovde has taken a 48% to 47% lead over Democrat incumbent Tammy Baldwin. While Hovde’s lead is narrow, it’s the first time he has edged ahead in internal polling. Baldwin’s approval ratings have taken a hit, with her favorability at 45%. As Hovde gains traction, the GOP is optimistic about flipping this crucial seat in November.

In Pennsylvania, Republican David McCormick is giving Democrat incumbent Bob Casey a run for his money. The latest polling shows Casey clinging to a narrow 44% to 43% lead, with third-party candidates drawing 4% of the vote. Though Casey maintains a slight edge, his negative ratings have increased, creating a pathway for McCormick to capitalize on undecided voters, particularly as Trump enjoys a commanding 57% to 27% lead among this group.

In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown faces an uphill battle against incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen. Despite trailing by five points, Brown’s favorability has significantly improved, with 49% of voters now viewing him favorably, up from 35% in July. The race remains competitive as Brown’s momentum grows in the final weeks before Election Day.

The Arizona Senate race continues to be a nail-biter, with Republican Kari Lake trailing Democrat Ruben Gallego by four points. Gallego leads 49% to 45%, but with Trump holding a positive approval rating in the state, Lake’s camp remains hopeful. Trump currently holds a 49% to 47% lead over Harris in Arizona, and Lake is banking on his popularity to boost her chances in the Senate race.

Michigan’s Senate race is shaping up to be one of the tightest contests this cycle. Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat incumbent Elissa Slotkin are locked in a dead heat, with each candidate garnering 48% of the vote in a head-to-head matchup. The race is similarly tight in a multi-candidate scenario, with Slotkin holding a razor-thin 49% to 48% lead. With only 3% of voters still undecided, both campaigns are ramping up their efforts to sway the final few votes in their favor.

From Montana to Michigan, the GOP has seen strong gains in candidate favorability and voter enthusiasm, while Democratic incumbents are struggling to maintain support. With Election Day fast approaching, the pressure is on for Democrats to hold their ground in what is shaping up to be one of the most competitive midterm election cycles in recent history. However, if these trends continue, Republicans could very well emerge with a sizable Senate majority, shattering Democratic hopes of maintaining control of the upper chamber.