Fantasy hockey: Sleepers, busts and draft strategy

Sleepers. Busts.

Identify the one and avoid the other like your fantasy season depends on it. Because it might. Successfully mining for underrated talent, while sidestepping players who end up underperforming, makes for a formula that’s bound to pay off fantasy dividends all campaign long.

The trick, of course, is to suss out who falls into either opposing category ahead of the season, with an eye towards skill, opportunity, health, earlier trends and where each player currently sits on the trajectory of their NHL career.

Matters being relative, of course. Is Sam Reinhart a bust if he scores “only” 40 goals instead of 57 this season? Not if you draft him in accordance with the expectation of getting 40, and another 30 assists or so.

Same applies to “sleepers”. Overreaching for such under-radar players too early in drafts deflates the advantage of pinning down such a hidden gem. Timing is key.

In that view, here are a few potential sleepers to consider as late-round draft acquisitions, or even as free agents once the season is underway. Plus a small handful of those who might be setting their managers up for disappointment in relation to where they might be picked in respective drafts.

Resources: Projections | Mock draft | Goalie depth chart | Most added/dropped

Sleepers

Viktor Arvidsson, F, Edmonton Oilers (No. 116 forward)

I wonder how many players wouldn’t agree to leave the cushier southern California climate for a crispier Alberta winter in exchange for the chance to play on a line with elite center Leon Draisaitl. Probably not that great a number. Arvidsson is certainly proven keen enough, after signing a two-year, $8-million deal for that very opportunity. One of the game’s more underrated forwards overall, the 31-year-old could hit new productive heights in this new gig. A 70-point campaign feels well within reach. He scored 59 in 77 games with the Kings only two years ago. I’m also rather interested to see what veteran Jeff Skinner can accomplish, if he sticks on a line with Connor McDavid. Keep a view of that relationship too.

Jake DeBrusk, F, Vancouver Canucks (No. 146 forward)

If he can stick on a scoring line with top-tier center Elias Pettersson, the former Bruin could pot 40 goals on more than 200 shots this year. Which would serve as rather impressive for a skater ranked 146th at his position heading into 2024-25. DeBrusk is one of my favorite late-round grabs, or even post-draft wire pick-ups, this fall. As long as he emerges from camp in a top-six role alongside Pettersson or J.T. Miller, as anticipated.

Tommy Novak, Nashville Predators (No. 180 forward)

If he ends up centering a scoring line between Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, as many expect, Novak should skip past the 65-point mark with ease. Hardly an outrageous prediction, considering the 27-year-old averaged 0.63 points/game competing with Predators like Luke Evangelista, Kiefer Sherwood and Mark Jankowski this past season. Good players — Evangelista sports tons of promise — but not Stamkos and or Marchessault.

Morgan Frost, F, Philadelphia Flyers (No. 188)

Warmup’s over. In the final year of his current contract, the 25-year-old needs to establish himself as a bona fide top-six NHL center. A full season between Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett — or perhaps even sizzling prospect Matvei Michkov — at even-strength and on the No. 1 power play should help in that regard. Frost has certainly shown flashes. And John Tortorella won’t tolerate much less. There’s only so many private meetings a head coach and player can have. Watch the still-young center take a big leap, starting this autumn.

Anthony Duclair, F, New York Islanders (No. 216 forward)

Don’t be all that surprised if Duclair ends up the Islanders’ leading goal-scorer by season’s end. After signing a four-year deal, he’s projected to skate on New York’s top line, and quite possibly, their no. 1 power-play unit. Having spent his junior years with the QMJHL Quebec Remparts, he knows what coach Patrick Roy is all about (and vice-versa). When in a groove, the well-travelled 29-year-old is a dynamic goal-scoring threat. Just have a little patience when Duclair’s production dries up for a spell. The high-ceiling winger tends to run hot/cold in more extreme fashion than most.

Kirby Dach, F, Montreal Canadiens (No. 258 forward)

First, he needs to stay healthy. A worry after the third-overall draft selection (2019) missed all but two games this past season with a knee injury. Then his new probable linemate, Patrik Laine, also needs to stay fit and invested in performing to the best of his abilities. But if all goes as well as coach Martin St. Louis dreams, both the 23-year-old center and former 44-goal scorer could be in for a heckuva ride in Montreal this season. Which would render Dach a sneaky gem indeed in the deepest of fantasy leagues.

Aaron Ekblad, Florida Panthers (No. 74 defenseman)

While it feels a bit odd to slap the “sleeper” label on a former prolific fantasy performer, after last year’s injury-riddled four-goal/14-assist hobbling, here we are. Fortunately, his strong showing through the Panthers’ successful Cup run suggests that his bothersome shoulder, along with other late-season physical issues, are no longer bothering him. Oh, and with Brandon Montour gone for Seattle, the veteran is forecast to once more anchor Florida’s top power play. A significant fantasy deal, indeed. The real-life No. 1 draft pick (2014) would serve nicely as a No. 3/4 defender on teams in fantasy leagues of a reasonable size. He merits a considerable higher ranking than 74th.

Darcy Kuemper, G, Los Angeles Kings (No. 29 goaltender)

Kuemper is a good goalie coming off a bad year. Now back in L.A., where he touched down for a brief period in 2017-18, the ex-Capital is ready to right his own netminding ship. Playing for a more defensively sound team will help. A lot. The 34-year-old should also see plenty of action, with David Rittich serving as the Kings’ No. 2.

See also:

• JJ Peterka, F, Buffalo Sabres

• Quinton Byfield, F, Los Angeles Kings

• Gabriel Vilardi, F, Winnipeg Jets

• William Eklund, F, San Jose Sharks

• Leo Carlsson, F, Anaheim Ducks

• Connor Zary, F, Calgary Flames

• Anthony Stolarz, G, Toronto Maple Leafs

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Busts

Frank Vatrano, F, Anaheim Ducks (No. 27 forward)

Ahead of last season’s eruption for 37 goals (13.6 S%) and 23 assists, the 30-year-old hadn’t collected more than 41 points in a full campaign. Not with the Bruins, Panthers or even the Ducks the season previous. (His 2021-22 sniff with the Rangers serving as too brief to gauge properly.) With prospect Cutter Gauthier aboard, and second-year player Leo Carlsson expected to take a significant stride forward, Vatrano projects to skate on an Anaheim secondary power play this round. He’ll be in tough to replicate the unprecedented productive showing from a year ago, particularly with the extra skater.

MacKenzie Weegar, D, Calgary Flames (No. 10 defenseman)

I’m a big MacKenzie Weegar fan. But to expect another season of 52 points, including 15 with the extra skater, presents as too great an ask. A top-10 fantasy defender? Even in leagues that reward physical play, feels like a substantial stretch.

Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators (No. 6 goaltender)

The ex-Bruin’s move to Ottawa concerns me a fair amount. While headed in the right direction, the Senators aren’t yet on the same plane as Boston, particularly defensively. No doubt, Ullmark is going to play a ton and steal a few. He’s also going to endure some much rougher outings, netting his managers negative integers in ESPN standard leagues.

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