Fantasy basketball: Biggest surprises, disappointments one month into the season

One month into the NBA season, we now have a pretty good sample size and understanding of what type of campaign players are having around the league.

So who has played better than where they were projected in fantasy basketball drafts? And who simply hasn’t lived up to expectations?

Here are fantasy experts Andre Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick and Steve Alexander to weigh in.

Surprises

LaMelo Ball, PG, Charlotte Hornets: I had high expectations for Ball, who I believed had top-10 fantasy production upside if he could stay healthy, but I expected his strength to be the all-around nature of his game. I thought he had double-digit assist potential with maybe seven boards per game, making him a nightly triple-double threat. I didn’t see him pushing his scoring average over 30 PPG. He has always been a streaky shooter, but his range, consistency and volume have all increased and he looks like he could legitimately challenge for the scoring crown this season. I didn’t see that coming. — Snellings

Jared McCain, SG, Philadelphia 76ers: I have to mention McCain as well. He has gone from a rookie drafted outside of the lottery, to a somewhat forgettable performer that shot only 28% from both the field and 3-point line in the Las Vegas Summer League, to the clear Rookie of the Year frontrunner through the first month of the season. — Snellings

Jakob Poeltl, C, Toronto Raptors: After years of consistent but modest production, Poeltl has averaged 40 ESPN fantasy points per game, tops on his team and among top-10 centers. Poeltl averaged 32 fantasy points last season. The retooling, shorthanded Raptors needed more minutes and production and, Poeltl, at 29, sure is providing it. He gets my nod for biggest surprise over breakout Clippers C Ivica Zubac, thanks to the steals and better free throw shooting, but both have been fantastic late-round draft picks. — Karabell

Jalen Williams, SF/PF/C, Oklahoma City Thunder: Even as I’ve been high on him since he was drafted, I admit that I didn’t expect Williams to be this special this soon. We are past the small sample size warning label and getting into the slow realization that this guy is already an All-Star caliber player. Williams is top 10 on the Player Rater. Only Dyson Daniels’ video game-like steal clip is higher than Williams’, while his offensive game has grown in every single dimension. This dude can score, create and defend at impact levels. I was convinced the Thunder had two first-round fantasy talents in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren. That number might have been conservative. — McCormick

Buddy Hield, SG/SF, Golden State Warriors: Hield has been a revelation for the Warriors. Only Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins have more fantasy points on the team. Hield is thriving as the first man off the bench under Steve Kerr, delivering consistent points and 3-point production with a sprinkle of rebounds and assists. He’s become a key spark plug, and fantasy managers have taken notice. — Moody

Dyson Daniels, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks: Daniels has been surprisingly great this season, returning third-round fantasy value. We all knew he could be a steals machine and he’s racked up a whopping 3.2 swipes per game thus far, but he’s doing a lot more than that with averages of 14.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.9 blocks and 1.3 triples per game thus far. The return of Bogdan Bogdanovic could eventually slow Daniels’ roll, but he’s been an absolute fantasy star thus far and is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. — Alexander

Disappointments

Tyrese Haliburton, PG/SG, Indiana Pacers: Through the first two months last season, Haliburton looked like the next great guard in the NBA. He never seemed to recover last season from his hamstring injury, but I thought he’d look more like himself after an offseason. Instead, his offense-creation numbers have fallen precipitously this season. He is shooting only 37.9% from the field, a whopping 10 percentage points beneath his career averages, and he’s averaging his lowest assist totals since being traded to the Pacers. The shooting efficiency is the biggest worry, because the slump is extending beyond “slow start” territory and is verging on becoming a season-long trend. — Snellings

Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers: It feels safe to say that few fantasy managers would have considered Embiid (knee) worth a top-20 draft pick if they saw this coming. Embiid has appeared in only four of the team’s 16 games (none of the three wins) and he has averaged 31 ESPN fantasy points. He averaged 62 points last season. We don’t know when Embiid will play again or for how long, as we curse the team “load management.” OK, so I boldly and pessimistically predicted Embiid wouldn’t play in half the team’s games after last year, but I thought he would at least play well when he suited up. What a disaster. — Karabell

Desmond Bane, SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies: Amid the Ja Morant drama and seemingly endless wave of injuries that hit the Grizzlies last season, it’s easy to forget that Bane was en route to another breakout season in 2023-24. The TCU product had made sizable leaps in scoring volume and efficiency into his first four years in the league, but this season, he’s regressed to a troubling degree. Is he still getting over prior injuries? Is the team still trying to mesh a new-look rotation? It’s likely that several factors are in play, but this player was drafted high to deliver elite scoring and shooting along the line of prime Klay Thompson. The sample of Bane being a real scorer is much larger than recent evidence of regression, so I’d actually angle to buy low on Bane despite this clear disappointment through the first month. — McCormick

Jamal Murray, PG, Denver Nuggets: Many were counting on a bounce-back season after his disappointing playoff run last year and a tough outing at the Olympics. But this season, Murray’s averaged just 17.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. Right now, he doesn’t look like the big-time scorer or facilitator the Nuggets need alongside Nikola Jokic. — Moody

Klay Thompson, SG/SF, Dallas Mavericks: While no one was expecting Thompson to return to his form from three years ago, we were all hoping for a little bit more with a fresh start in Dallas and playing alongside Luka Doncic. Thompson has hit just 38% of his shots with averages of 13.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.9 3-pointers per game. If his shots ever start falling, there’s still hope he can turn it around, but he’s been bad enough that he’s probably floating around on waiver wires and the poor shooting is the main reason why. He’s only returning 12th- or 13th-round fantasy value in 12-team leagues. — Alexander