Darkish clouds Over Moldova – JP

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The recent elections in Moldova have shown there are no changes in terms of democratic rights in that country. Everything that happened in the referendum on constitutional changes and presidential elections in 2024 was repeated.

Until the votes from the diaspora arrive, the election result shows the opposition to the ruling majority gathered around Maia Sandu is leading by a couple of percentage points. But, when the votes from the diaspora arrive, the final outcome changes, and the “narrow majority” goes to the side of the current government.

The government’s rating has further declined over the past year, and now they have resorted to additional political engineering: the number of polling stations in Transnistria was halved, bridges over the Dniester were closed on election day so that voters would not accidentally go to “separated” polling stations, “media noise” was increased to the maximum, and “special operations” were conducted with the aim of convincing the public that it was a fateful vote between the promising EU and the sinister Russia.

In total, compared to the second round of the presidential elections a year ago, the opposition won about 30,000 votes more, and the ruling party even 150,000 votes less (Maia Sandu in October 2024 in the presidential elections had 930,000 votes, and now the result of her list is about 780,000).

In addition, the government’s result was influenced by the “meddling” of George Simion from Romania in the Moldovan elections. The anti-system presidential candidate from Romania, who “jumped” into the race after the brutal elimination of Calin Georgescu, somehow he got revenge against opponents from Brussels by “pushing” Vasile Costiuc’s party called Democrația Acasă (translated – Democracy at Home) into parliament. Until yesterday, the party, which pollsters did not find above one percent, won 5.6 percent of the vote thanks to a social media campaign led by Simion.

This may represent a hint that in Moldova Euroscepticism is taking shape on completely different grounds than before, i.e. that it is not all about the constructed polarization “EU or Russia”. This is a new and significant detail for the Moldovan political system.

Nevertheless, the created matrix is ​​maintained and elections are now organized within it. From that principled perspective, the opposition simply has no chance in any elections, unless it makes an “epochal shift” and wins in Moldova itself with a ratio of 65-35 percent of the votes won. In such an outcome, manipulations on the ground and voices from the diaspora will not be of much help to the authorities.

Regardless of all the irregularities and large-scale blunders due to which not only the elections but also the democratic environment in a broader sense were compromised, the EU greeted the official results more and more triumphantly. It is even added that the example from Moldova represents a model for the fight against “Russian malignant influence”.

With the latest decisions and the announcement of the formation of the “coalition of the willing”, the EU effectively declared the conflict in Ukraine as its “existential war”. It is not entirely clear who and how would participate in that “coalition of the willing” and how long, with such a decline in numbers, the Ukrainian forces can last in the projected role of “EU infantry”, but Moldova is now also included in the whole strategy.

The EU had such an ambition with Georgia, but it all backfired there. Formally, Moldova is a militarily neutral country, and for the implementation of a strategy related to an existential war, such status represents a limitation.

Geographically, this country is an important link for the logistics and supply of the Ukrainian armed forces, and its importance increases in a strategic sense if Odessa is included in the calculation.

If the Russian forces advance towards Odessa, the “coalition of the willing” simply has to organize a counter-initiative from Moldova or, more precisely, from Transnistria. Therefore, provocations directed against the Russian peacekeeping contingent on the Moldovan-Transnistrian demarcation line can be expected.

Regardless of the plans and hypotheses, for any actions of the EU and the European wing of NATO, the obstacle is the catastrophic situation in Moldova.

These elections, like previous ones, showed that society remains deeply polarized. In such conditions, already “fragile” institutions weaken further, so it is questionable how much they can participate in the implementation of any policy.

In addition, the geographical distribution of votes in every respect worries the central authorities in Chisinau. It is no longer only about “renegade” Transnistria, but also the fact that in the southern autonomous region of Gagauzia, the list of Maia Sandu took a negligible three percent of the votes.

Apparently, the August verdict of the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul (sentenced to seven years in prison) produced a fierce reaction from the local population. This is a reminder that due to ongoing tensions and potential social conflict, nothing can be done by force. That is, that such action will have consequences.

By agreeing to participate in the existential war of the political West against Russia, Maia Sandu has caused political destabilization in Moldova, which has the potential to grow into something much worse.

Under the absurd pretext that everything is being done with the aim of countering the “malign influence of Russia”, they started shutting down the media, banning political parties and citizens’ associations, arrests, staged investigations, manipulation of election processes.

On the one hand, from a historical perspective, it can hardly be argued that Russian influence in Moldova was ever “malignant”. That is why it is difficult to “fit” this Brussels narrative into the Moldovan social framework, and then there is so much resistance from citizens. Moldovans are offered absolutely nothing for participating in this existential war, except for the promise of a European perspective. Promises, empty promises, cost nothing and sound nice.

Completely unknowingly, the newly elected Romanian President Nikusor Dan confirmed this with a clumsy offer in the election campaign when he was supposed to support Maia Sanda, saying that in the future in Bucharest, he will resolve the citizenship requests of the citizens of the Republic of Moldova promptly. With that, he practically confirmed that Moldovan citizens will be able to join the EU through Romania and new passports, but at the same time warns that the country of Moldova will not be in the EU for a long time.

In addition to all the political problems related to Moldova’s membership, there is also one procedural problem on the EU’s table: the further progress of this country is linked to a joint package with Ukraine. The hypothetical membership of Ukraine cannot be discussed at this moment, probably not at all, since the future of Ukraine depends on some subsequent negotiations that have not even started yet, which means that Chisinau will become a hostage of the EU’s strategy, which is aimed at unconditional and unlimited support for Kyiv.

The fact that nothing is new in Chisinau means that in the coming period it will continue as before. And such a situation has already polarized society and destabilized the country to a great extent. Moldova is in agony and there is absolutely no sign that anything can change for the better.