Conference Board Confidence ‘Revised’ Lower For 3rd Straight Month, Present Situation At Pre-COVID-Lockdown Highs

US consumer confidence soared higher again in January according to the Conference Board, with the headline up from 108.0 (revised down) to 114.8 (above the 114.5 exp). This was driven a huge surge in ‘present situation’ (from 147.2 (revised down) to 161.3). That is the highest present situation index since the start of COVID lockdowns…

Source: Bloomberg

But, for the third straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower.

Source: Bloomberg

Which brings up the same question we had last month?

How do you revise consumer confidence down? Do you ask them again and they tell you, “You know what, I wasn’t feeling it as much as I thought I was”

— Zebra Cat (@ZebraCat20) November 28, 2023

The labor market indicators trended notably stronger in January…

Source: Bloomberg

The Conference Board’s indicator inflation expectations tumbled further to +5.2% – still notably high but trend in the right direction…

Source: Bloomberg

And so we ask again – Is Bidenomics all simply driven by ‘seasonal adjustments’ and historical revisions?