Can Trump make peace?

President Trump says he has seen “good signals” towards a proposed cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Whether he can get Ukraine and Russia to agree is another matter, though there is progress. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded a number of preconditions, including the surrender of “Ukrainian forces occupying land in Russia’s Kursk region”, Ukraine halting the mobilization and training of its troops, and for other countries to cease supplying Ukraine with weapons. Notwithstanding the demands, Putin questioned exactly how the cease-fire might be enforced.

For Putin, it’s negotiation from a position of strength. And questions concerning the enforcement of the cease-fire are understandable. To Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Putin’s demands are “very predictable, very manipulative” and made with the goal of undermining cease-fire talks that are only waiting on Russia’s approval. These comments are consistent with Zelensky’s position on negotiating with Putin, as seen by the recent exchange at the White House.

The positions of both sides evidence their calculations of the benefits of the cease-fire. Russia can continue to bleed Ukraine and Ukraine’s position becomes more tenuous as the US loses its patience with the continuation of the war. Additionally, Ukrainian troops are in a terrible position in Kursk. Though Ukraine disputes that their troops are “surrounded” by Russian forces in that region, they are being pushed back and possibly separated. As the New York Times reports, “If Russian forces drive Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, that would deny Mr. Zelensky a significant bargaining chip in any negotiations.”