Proper-wing One Nation Get together forward of each main events in new ballot | JP
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Today, a new poll has One Nation in front of both major parties, sounding the alarm that it could pose a serious threat not just for the Coalition, but for centre-left Labor as well.
This is the first time a minor party has overtaken both majors in a national poll, ever.
Polling company Roy Morgan says a federal election held today would be “too close to call” with a “likely hung parliament.”
According to the snap SMS poll, One Nation has more primary support (32 percent) than Labor (28.5 percent), and almost double the support of the Coalition (16.5 percent).
This is a considerably higher result for One Nation than previous polling this year, which has showed that between 21-24 percent of respondents would vote for the party.
Post-budget sentiment would be a contributing factor: the poll was conducted over May 13-14, just after Labor’s widely criticised federal budget was handed down.
On a choice between only Labor and One Nation, Labor leads by just two points, at 51 percent vs. 49 percent, respectively. This should seriously concern Labor given One Nation’s stated intention of targeting some of its stronghold seats, starting with western Sydney.
Between Labor and the Coalition, Labor leads with 55 percent to the Coalition’s 45 percent. On a three-party preferred basis, taking into account major party preferences, Labor is comfortably in front (44.5 percent) against One Nation (36.5 percent) and the Coalition (19 percent).
As discussed in my previous post, the Australian system allows major parties to take government even if only a third or so of the population gives them the primary vote due to preferencing.
The poll also found that the majority of its sample of 2,348 people disapprove of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (59 percent). A YouGov poll from April 28-May 5 had Albo’s disapproval rating at 54 percent. Nonetheless, that same poll showed that Albo was more popular (54 percent) than One Nation leader Pauline Hanson (35 percent) as preferred Prime Minister.
In the Roy Morgan poll, respondents who favoured One Nation were motivated by concern about immigration and national identity, deep dissatisfaction with the major parties, perceptions that Australia is in economic and cultural decline, and opposition to “woke” politics, climate policies and global institutions. Party leader Pauline Hanson was viewed by partisans as an authentic and honest political figure.
As it was a snap SMS poll and not Roy Morgan’s usual face-to-face methodology, this may have some bearing on the results. Further polling will show whether this was a blip, or the continuation of One Nation’s dramatic rise in Australian politics.
Tuesday’s backgrounder:
Australia’s bulwark against populism is cracking
The right-wing populist wave that broke over much of the democratic world with Brexit and the first Trump presidency in 2016 barely lapped at Australia’s shores. The island nation’s compulsory, preferential voting…