High Pollster Reveals Frontrunner In Texas GOP Senate Main
A new poll from Quantus Insights — one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2024 presidential election — found Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading longtime Senator John Cornyn in the runoff election for the state’s Republican U.S. Senate primary.
The poll, which surveyed 1,217 likely voters between March 22-23, found Paxton leading with 48.8 percent of the vote to Cornyn’s 41.3 percent. An additional 9.9 percent of respondents indicated that they remain undecided.
When asked about their likelihood of voting in the runoff, 89 percent said they were certain to vote, 8.9 percent said they probably would vote, and 2.1 percent said it was 50-50. When asked to recall their vote in the initial March 3 primary, 40 percent of respondents said they voted for Cornyn, 38.6 percent for Paxton and 10.6 percent for U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt.
An additional 7.7 percent said they did not vote, while 3.1 percent voted for other candidates.
On candidate commitment, 78.7 percent described their support as definite, 16.5 percent said it could still change, and 4.7 percent were not sure. When asked which candidate would be more effective, 51.3 percent selected Paxton, 38.9 percent selected Cornyn, and 9.8 percent were unsure.
NEW: Quantus Insights Texas Republican Senate Runoff Poll | March 24, 2026
📊 Senate Runoff
🔴 Ken Paxton: 48.8%
🔴 John Cornyn: 41.3%
⚪️ Undecided: 9.9%
––Nearly 58% of Hunts supporters now backing Paxton.
––––––––––––––––––
📊 Certainty to Vote
🟢 Certain to vote: 88.1%
⚪️… pic.twitter.com/yAwqKo2okk— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) March 24, 2026
Favorability ratings showed Paxton with 33.0 percent very favorable, 22.9 percent somewhat favorable, 16.0 percent somewhat unfavorable, 21.5 percent very unfavorable, and 6.7 percent not sure. For Cornyn, the breakdown was 16.5 percent very favorable, 26.1 percent somewhat favorable, 19.1 percent somewhat unfavorable, 32.6 percent very unfavorable, and 5.7 percent not sure.
The poll also tested the potential impact of an endorsement from President Donald Trump. For a Trump endorsement of Paxton, 63.5 percent said it would make no difference, 25.8 percent said it would make them more likely to support Paxton, 7.7 percent said less likely, and 3.0 percent were not sure.
For a Trump endorsement of Cornyn, 70.7 percent said no difference, 18.4 percent said more likely to support Cornyn, 7.5 percent said less likely, and 3.4 percent were not sure.
The two candidates remain locked in a tight runoff race after neither candidate received a majority in the March 3 Republican primary, in which Cornyn received approximately 41.9 percent of the vote and Paxton received approximately 40.7 percent, with Hunt placing third at 13.5 percent. The top two advanced to a May 26 primary under Texas election rules.
Trump has not issued an endorsement in the race. He previously stated after the primary that he would make an endorsement soon and suggested that the candidate he does not support should withdraw, but no endorsement had been announced as of this report.
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