MAGA Candidate Surges To Lead In GOP Senate Main
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is surging at just the right moment, taking a narrow lead over Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate and giving the MAGA movement fresh evidence that the grassroots still calls the shots in Texas.
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey found Paxton at 40%, Cornyn at 36% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%. The numbers show a race that is tightening fast, but the momentum appears to be with Paxton.
That is bad news for Cornyn, the longtime Senate incumbent who has spent years as a fixture of the Republican establishment in Washington. In a different era, that might have been a strength. In today’s GOP, it looks more like a liability.
Paxton has built his brand as a fighter, and that is clearly resonating with Republican voters who are less interested in seniority and more interested in confrontation, loyalty to President Donald Trump and a willingness to go to war with the political class.
The trend line tells the story. Since January, Paxton’s support has jumped 13 points. Cornyn has also gained ground, rising 10 points, but Paxton’s support is coming from the part of the electorate that matters most late in a primary campaign.
Cornyn leads among early voters, 38% to 34%, but Paxton holds a commanding 12-point edge among likely Election Day voters, 44% to 32%. That suggests Cornyn banked some support early, while Paxton is catching fire with the voters showing up at the end.
The demographic split is just as revealing.
“Senator Cornyn performs strongest among Republican Primary voters with college degrees, leading Paxton 43% to 32%, and voters over 70, 52% to 35%, while Paxton leads with voters under 50, 38% to 22%, and voters in their 50s and 60s, 44% to 30%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
In other words, Cornyn is strongest with the older, more traditional Republican crowd. Paxton is winning the voters who now power the modern GOP base.
His advantage with Trump voters is especially striking. Among Republicans who backed Trump in 2024, Paxton leads Cornyn 46% to 33%. Cornyn, meanwhile, performs far better with voters who supported Kamala Harris or another candidate, winning 49% of that group compared with just 8% for Paxton.
That is not the kind of number a Texas Republican wants attached to his name.
Wesley Hunt’s 17% support could keep both men under the 50% mark needed to avoid a runoff, setting up an even more brutal one-on-one fight.
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