Brazil Stays Key To Hemispheric Safety – JP

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Trump has surprised the world with his decisiveness – and the lethality of U.S. forces under determined leadership.

The question arises, what is the longer term plan to implement Trump’s strategy, a Munroe Doctrine 2.0, to refocus on our hemisphere? (Recently here on TMI, Col. John Mills, Ret. asked Who’s Next on the Punch List in the Americas?)

In my view, the most important liberation of a Latin country from communist destruction/leadership is Brazil. If the Chinese Communists successfully turn Brazil into their own Cuba, Trump’s hemispheric strategy fails and our national security is gravely weakened.

As Mills comments, placing the country last on his list, “Brazil has a leftist President who stole the 2022 election with USAID support and has President Bolsonaro imprisoned.”

Following Trump’s triumphant law enforcement extradition of Maduro, he has mentioned (or replied to) bad actors in Mexico, Columbia, and Cuba, advising them to stop playing games with America. President Trump, of course, is a master of both timing and diversion. My guess is that he will ensure narco-trafficking is throttled, especially from Mexico and Colombia, without decapitation raids. Cuba, after generations of impoverishment, is the hardest nut to crack.

If the administration agrees with my assessment that saving Brazil is key to hemispheric peace, what could the next steps entail?

Let’s first review recent history.

Last August, Trump imposed the highest tariffs on Brazil (only second to China), and the only ones justified – in the first two out of three reasons given – by political motives. (See my August article titled Trump Comes to Brazil’s Rescue.) He emphasized the witchhunt of President Bolsonaro and the lawless Brazilian Supreme Court (Brazil is, in effect, a judicial dictatorship, with the Supreme Court able to decree whatever it wishes, including detention, fines, imprisonment, censorship, and business diktats).

The 50% tariff rate was enough to tank Brazil’s already shaky economy (as always, greatly mismanaged by the socialist/communists), but exceptions were made, for oranges and then other agricultural products, due to the tariffs’ potential inflationary effect on the still unstable U.S. economy, crippled by the prior administration.

Entry into the U.S. was sensibly denied for many of Brazil’s criminal gang, including Supreme Court justices, and the Magnitsky Act was applied to the chief justice and his wife specifically.

In December, these were rescinded after negotiations with Brazil’s President Lula (a convicted criminal who, after being sprung from jail by the corrupt Supreme Court, stole the 2022 election), rolling back the 50% tariffs.

(The best way to think of these threatened and then rescinded actions are as warning shots.)

Besides the potential nflationary impact on a resuscitating U.S. economy, there was also the crisis over rare earth minerals. With China threatening to suspend exports – which would grind to a halt much of U.S. industrial production within 6 weeks, according to some estimates – Trump quickly negotiated deals with other rare earth producing nations. Among them was a nearly half billion U.S. financing in November of Brazil’s largest rare earth company, Serra Verde Group – in a deal which preempted a large European investment and likely was part of the negotiations with Lula.

With U.S. economic growth surging to 4.3% in the 3rd quarter and inflation lowering unexpectedly to 2.7% in November, the American economic engine will likely be strong in 2026. This means – along with rare earth mineral deals – that the Trump administration will have a lot more runway to implement punishing tariffs, among other pressure tactics, prior to Brazil’s next Presidential election in October of this year.

(Brazilian patriots tell me that inflicting heavy economic damage would be best timed closer to the October election.)

Ex-President Bolsonaro underwent over Christmas his (by some estimates) seventh surgery stemming from the near-fatal knife attack prior to his 2018 election. (The perpetrator, a leftist, was acquitted on grounds of insanity.) Thumbing their nose at Trump, the malignant Supreme Court – despite Bolsanaro’s precarious health – removed him from house arrest to throw him into prison. (After his seventh surgery, he was inhumanely booted right back to prison.)

Bosonaro – who already had his ‘electoral rights’ revoked to run as a candidate due to made up charges regarding a coup attempt after the 2022 election steal – is unfortunately out of the picture. (This is a blow for, like Trump, he has a special relation with both middle and working class Brazilians and is massively popular.)

And potential next steps going forward?

The Trump administration’s strategy will likely be to increase pressure on the illegitimate regime in the 2nd half, and very closely monitor the October election, so as to repeat the recent democratic/freedom recuperating elections of populist, pro-U.S. candidates in Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Honduras.

Otherwise, the Communists (Chinese and Brazilian) will turn Brazil into another Venezuela. With the largest population by far of Latin America (roughly 213 million), the immigrant crisis would explode greater than anything we’ve seen to date. Recall that at least 23% of Venezuela’s population fled communist misrule.

Trump’s brilliant strategic re-focusing on hemispheric defense is not a moment too soon.