A Tough Awakening Is Coming For Ukraine And The EU – The Balkan

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After the investigation initiated by the Ukrainian anti-corruption agency, the head of the presidential office, Andrij Jermak, resigned. This was announced personally by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Jermak resigned after the officers of the National Anti-Corruption Office of Ukraine began to search his home – Zelensky said during his address to the public, as reported by the Ukrainian media Strana. At the same time, the Ukrainian leader announced talks with American officials in the near future. They were previously led by Jermak, who had just been replaced, as one of the participants.

“Negotiations will begin soon, and our representatives will be there: the Chief of the General Staff, representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Secretary of the Council for National Security and Defense, and our intelligence service,” said the president.

But, this is not the only negative news for Ukraine. Other developments are even worse and far-reaching in their consequences.

Namely, as Britain’s The Telegraph writes, citing their sources, American special envoys Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner will tell Russian President Vladimir Putin at the upcoming meeting in Moscow that President Donald Trump is ready to recognize Russian control over Crimea and other conquered Ukrainian territories in order to reach a peace agreement. Ukraine, for its part, will not have to do that.

“The territorial recognition plan, which violates American diplomatic traditions, will probably be implemented, despite the concerns of Ukraine’s European allies,” the article of the British media, which is also reported by the Ukrainian side, states.

“Numerous sources” of the British media suggest that American proposals to recognize the territories as Russian remained part of the strategy, despite the agreements with Ukraine in Geneva.

The announcement that the United States is ready to recognize Russian jurisdiction over occupied and annexed territories of Ukraine as part of a peace deal, if true, suggests Washington is willing to make concessions to Moscow on one of its key demands.

Moreover, it overlaps with Putin’s statements, that it is not so important for him the Ukrainian recognition of the loss of its territories (he believes that this is unlikely in the near future), but international recognition.

So while the discussion so far has been limited to recognition by the United States, it opens the way for many other countries to make similar decisions – at least those friendly to Russia. Enemy countries (like the EU) will treat the annexed regions in the same way that America treated the Baltic countries after World War II, which did not legally recognize their inclusion in the USSR, but de facto did not challenge it.

The issue of sanctions therefore arises. If Washington officially recognizes Russian control over the occupied territories, it will essentially eliminate the basis for most of the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the US after the annexation of Crimea.

It is not certain that they will all be abolished immediately, but the legal recognition will allow American companies to operate in the occupied territories and trade with companies in Russia (if they wish). And if American companies can do it, so can other countries. Therefore, the Russian annexation of a part of Ukraine will be “indirectly” legalized in the global economy – ships will start docking in ports, companies will be able to sell their products, etc.

Finally, if Ukraine tries to regain control of these territories by military means, then, from the point of view of the United States and other countries that recognize the annexation, it will be “aggression against Russia”.

Therefore, the decision to recognize Russian jurisdiction will have enormous importance and consequences.

However, this is only one issue concerning a possible peace agreement. There are others like the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region, which Russia demands, and which the Ukrainian authorities categorically oppose.

As a clear signal that the situation looks increasingly difficult for Ukraine, the news from British JP also testifies to the fact that Italian judicial authorities eventually extradited Ukrainian citizen Serhiy Kuznetsov to Germany, who was accused in Germany of conspiracy to cause an explosion on the North Stream gas pipeline in 2022, for unconstitutional sabotage and destruction of important facilities.

If these accusations against the Ukrainian citizen are confirmed by the court as true and if the suspect’s connection with the Ukrainian state leadership, i.e. military or intelligence institutions and structures regarding the aforementioned activities, which would then actually represent an act of state terrorism, is proven – it should not surprise anyone too much that in the end Ukraine will be the one who will have to pay the damages for the destroyed gas pipeline, possibly also for the natural environment.

In that case, it is justified to ask the question with whose money Kiev would pay for the said damages in the end, given that it is well known that the Ukrainian budget is a financial “black hole”, as the latest IMF report for that country has published before reaching a new credit arrangement for the year 2026/2027? The IMF previously published a dark forecast, according to which a huge financial gap is predicted for Ukraine in the coming years (report of the head of the IMF mission for Ukraine by Gavin Gray).

Given that the USA has transferred the financing of Ukraine entirely to the shoulders of the European Union – theoretically, a paradox may occur that Ukraine pays compensation for the damaged gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany with the money of the European Union – the same one that most opposed the commissioning of that gas pipeline.

In the context of the above-mentioned possible American recognition of the occupied Ukrainian territories and anything else favorable for Russia that will result from it – remember also the not so long ago statements and naive stories about Trump’s delivery of American long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, just “to crush Putin”. Because of those statements and stories, European political elites naively hoped that they had finally put the fugitive Trump back “on the right path”, which was supposed to be a kind of confirmation of the correctness of their strategy towards Ukraine. They did not took into account the fact that was very well known that the American and Russian sides are still, in spite of everything, conducting mutual negotiations behind firmly closed doors. That’s why they recently published the news about Trump’s new 28-point peace plan, which meets almost all of Russia’s key demands.

Embarrassed and expelled from the negotiating table where decisions are made about Ukraine and something else, the EU will certainly be involved only in the part that concerns itself and the NATO alliance, such as those on strategic security in Europe. It is unlikely that the EU will celebrate the victory of its policy because of Russian “concessions” with the EU in the context of the only party that will take on the obligations of financing the ruined post-war Ukraine with a devastated economy.