REPORT: ‘Unusually High’ Voter Turnout Might Damage Mamdani
Turnout is unusually high for a non-presidential year as voters cast ballots in high-stakes contests across New York, Virginia, and New Jersey.
“Turnout across the country is tracking very strongly; PA, NYC, NJ, and VA are all doing very well,” said Decision Desk HQ analyst Michael Pruser in reaction to early returns showing strong activity across New York City’s boroughs.
In the city’s mayoral race, longtime power-broker Andrew Cuomo now finds himself facing a rising challenger: Zohran Mamdani. “People tracking turnout in the NYC mayoral race say if current trends continue we may get a Giuliani-Dinkins sized turnout of possibly around 2 million people voting. The conventional wisdom is that type of high turnout favors @andrewcuomo because of the onslaught of coverage surrounding @ZohranKMamdani and his insane policies. The key for Cuomo will be keeping @CurtisSliwa below 15 percent,” wrote Charles Gasparino of Fox Business on X.
In New York City, early‐voting check-ins over a nine-day stretch soared to about 384,338 — more than double the 191,197 seen in the same early period in 2021. Those figures hint that the “around 2 million” turnout scenario referenced by strategists might be closer than previously expected.
If turnout truly balloons toward the 2 million mark in the mayoral contest, it could reshape the race in unpredictable ways. As Gasparino notes, high turnout may lean toward Andrew Cuomo — provided his campaign keeps his opponent below the 15 percent threshold.
Cuomo, once the default name in New York politics, now faces a stark generational and ideological challenge from Mamdani, a 33-year-old Assembly member championing progressive causes. According to polling, Mamdani outpaced Cuomo in initial first-round counts.
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Upstate counties also delivered telling signs of engagement. In Jefferson County, early in-person voting reached a record 1,211 for a non-presidential year, up from 893 in 2023. St. Lawrence County logged 1,063 early in-person voters, up from 725 the prior off‐year. Lewis County didn’t break its overall record but still improved — 587 early in-person ballots versus 484 in 2023.