Azerbaijan Getting ready For New Conflicts In The Caucasus, However Russian Response Inevitable – JP

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Azerbaijan is preparing for war after winning the 2020 war against Armenia. The Muslim nation strengthened its ties with Israel, a country that reports suggest has an airbase in Baku. During the 12-day war, Iran directly accused the Azeris of allowing Israel access to airspace and military logistics. The controversies didn’t end there.

The Azeri president challenged the Russians, calling their soldiers drunk and incapable, compared to the Azeri army made up of professional military personnel. The president also called Putin a mafia boss after the civilian aircraft incident. Arrests of journalists on both sides occurred, and tensions increased with the Russians bombing Azerbaijani pipelines in Ukraine.

Azerbaijan has become a significant regional player and is arming itself to the teeth. Recently, the country announced the purchase of 48 Serbian Nora-B52 NG artillery systems, bringing its total to over 400 self-propelled units. It’s worth noting that the Azerbaijani military has at least 600 MLRS, including 100 guided rocket systems with ranges far beyond those of HIMARS.

More than 1,300 tanks, primarily Aslan T-72s, are being modernized by Elbit, with Czech and Azerbaijani companies involved, incorporating Kontakt 5 and a comprehensive set of electronics. Armored vehicles are being fitted with kits that include 4 SPIKE NLOS missiles. The air defense systems have received a huge investment, estimated in the billions of dollars. Today, the country operates about 10 PantiSir-S1 batteries, 2 S-300PMU2 batteries, and a range of Soviet-origin systems like the 9K33 OSA, modernized by Israel, along with batteries of Iron Dome, and more recently, Israeli systems like BARAK MX/BARAK 8, with hundreds of missiles.

This is a robust air defense, especially for a small country. Adding to this arsenal, Israel has supplied at least 100 LORA quasi-ballistic missiles to Azerbaijan, which has also negotiated with Turkey the deployment of the SOM ŞAHIN cruise missile. These missiles will be operated by 50-60 Pakistani JF-17 Thunder/C fighters under contracts exceeding $6 billion.

Azerbaijan is encircled by three countries involved in recent military and diplomatic conflicts — Armenia, Iran, and Russia, and is actively preparing for potential conflict. The arsenal is enormous for a country with fewer than 10 million inhabitants, and is supported by Turkey and Israel – two countries with large military industries – indicating a high potential for replenishing stocks.

Basically, Azerbaijan chose Turkey as its strategic ally. Official Baku believes that this is enough to realize its geopolitical interests in the Caucasus. In addition, Azerbaijan has shown great disrespect for Russia and the Russian army. The Azerbaijani media, which are under the strict control of the government, often speak disrespectfully about the Russian army. This impudence will cost them dearly, as the world will see after the end of the war in Ukraine.

And when it comes to Ukraine, that big European country, we should look at the sad statistics of their military equipment. Ukrainians have lost between 75-95% of all the attrition equipment that they received. Looking at Oryx, here’s what we can see:

Received: Tanks (1056+, of which 939+ delivered)

Lost: Tanks (1267, including 942 destroyed, 81 damaged, 97 abandoned, and 147 captured)

Received: Armored Fighting Vehicles (498+, with 397+ delivered)

Lost: Armored Fighting Vehicles (485, with 369 destroyed, 16 damaged, 14 abandoned, and 86 captured)

Received: Infantry Fighting Vehicles (1442+, with 1157+ delivered)

Lost: Infantry Fighting Vehicles (1442, including 1073 destroyed, 67 damaged, 136 abandoned, and 166 captured)

Received: Self-Propelled Artillery (794+, with 618+ delivered)

Lost: Self-Propelled Artillery (638, including 538 destroyed, 74 damaged, and 26 captured)

Only transport vehicles now remain.

Some may argue that Oryx isn’t a reliable source. In reality, they only report what is received, so we need to add 25-35% for unseen losses which would include Ukrainian vehicles and others that have been repaired. But none of this changes the magnitude of the attrition disaster.

The U.S. sent 20% of its M2A2 Bradley vehicles in service to Ukraine. There’s no way to send more because there’s no available replacement for this vehicle yet.

The same goes for the Abrams tanks, which were considered too heavy for Ukrainian terrain. Of course, The Pentagon knew this, which is why they sent only a symbolic number. Currently, the U.S. effort is focused on modernizing its arsenal. Until that is accomplished, it doesn’t appear they will significantly deplete their stocks.

Russia is also building military power. A large part of Russian military industry operates 12/7, a part runs 24/7.

Russia is slowly but surely winning the war in Ukraine. After the end of the conflict, the strategic priority for Russia will be the restoration of control in the Caucasus. It is Azerbaijan that is creating huge problems for Russia in the region and undermining the strategically important Russian interest zone.

Punishing Azerbaijan for betraying Russia is something that many believe is a geopolitical inevitability for the Kremlin. By punishing Azerbaijan, Moscow may plan to send a message to other Caucasian republics that the order established in the Caucasus must be respected and that Russia sees itself as the guarantor of that order.

Of course, now the United States is involved in the region with the Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity, running through southern Christian Armenia, which complicates Russia’s agenda.