During next Tuesday’s election, a lot of nervous voters, pollsters and campaign officials will be paying close attention to Erie County in Pennsylvania, which has chosen the victor in the past four presidential contests.
Over the past decade, the margins between the winner and loser have tightened, reflecting the national trend of closer elections. That is perhaps no big surprise. After all, bellwether “Erie County is such a microcosm of the entire nation,” said Jeff Bloodworth, a history professor at Gannon University in downtown Erie.
Erie County, the largest county by area in the state, is “slightly whiter, it’s slightly poorer and it’s slightly less educated than the average in Pennsylvania,” explained Bloodworth.
Both the Democratic and Republican party presidential nominees campaigned here in the closing weeks of the race.
“Erie County, you are a pivot county. How you all vote in presidential elections often ends up predicting the national result,” Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat, informed a recent rally at the Erie Insurance Arena.
Former president Donald Trump, the Republican, during his appearance at the Bayfront Convention Center, told the crowd, “I’m here in Erie, Pennsylvania, with the workers who used to be Democrats, but now they’re all Trump Republicans because they know that Trump is going to take them to the Promised Land.”
Democrats traditionally prevail in the city limits. But the party is not taking anything for granted — pushing for maximum turnout in both the city and the county.
Dairy farmer and activist Dan Gourley poses for a portrait on his farm in Cambridge Springs, Pennsylvania, Sept. 24, 2024.
“We’re past the persuasion point and it’s a matter of getting our base voters out to vote, and nothing works better than a knock at the door and face-to-face contact,” said local party chairman Sam Talarico.
The visits to Erie by the presidential contenders “do make a difference as far as enthusiasm goes,” according to Talarico.
With the lead in polling going back and forth and possibly unreliable in such a tight contest, “the only thing we can rely on is enthusiasm, and we know that the enthusiasm in Erie County is off the charts,” added Talarico.
It is in the more rural communities of Erie County where Republicans are strongest.
Harold Ross has been knocking on doors in Erie County and neighboring Warren County, where he lives, on behalf of Trump.
“You knock on a door, and you don’t know what you’re going to walk into. You could walk into a hardliner — a Democrat. You kind of try to stay neutral with it because you don’t want to make it look pushy,” explained Ross, wearing a shirt displaying the former president’s mugshot of when he was arrested in 2023 in Georgia after being accused of trying to illegally overturn the outcome of the 2020 election.
“I’ve run into Democrats who actually tell me they’re flipping — that they’re going to vote for Donald Trump,” said Ross.
A volunteer speaks with Erie resident Maria Rivera about the presidential candidates in Erie, Pennsylvania, Sept. 25, 2024.
Linda Pezzino manages the Trump campaign office in the town of Corry. Pezzino said she had been experiencing sleepless nights worrying about Trump’s fate in the election.
“All of a sudden something came over me and I said, ‘He won. He’s winning. He’s going to win Pennsylvania,’” Pezzino recalled.
Erie experienced a long period of being on the losing side — regardless of the party in power. Jobs and people left as factories closed and Pennsylvania became part of America’s Rust Belt.
A renaissance is attracting recreational tourism with activities from boating to wine tasting.
Overseeing a second generation of family vineyards is Mario Mazza. His father and uncle were immigrants from Italy and grew the family business, nestled along the shore of Lake Erie, over more than half a century into one that has more than 240 hectares under grape and grain cultivation.
Some in the county, according to Mazza, are fatigued by all the attention paid to voters by the presidential campaigns.
“I don’t know anyone who is soaking it up and basking in the amount of attention,” he said.
Mazza said he wanted to hear more pragmatism and nuances of policy from the presidential campaigns and less of the pithy soundbites and inflammatory language, especially on an issue critical to his industry — immigrant labor.
“Without labor, the agricultural machine in this country will grind to a halt. And I think anybody in agriculture knows that. Anybody in the food supply chain knows and realizes that,” Mazza said, standing at the edge of a field of recently harvested grape vines behind the family’s main Mediterranean-style rustic winery in the borough of North East township.
The winery is more upscale than the typical casual places to grab a quick meal that dot the city of Erie, a half-hour drive southwest.
A sign supporting former U.S. president Donald Trump stands posted in the election battleground Erie County township of North East, Pennsylvania, Oct. 23, 2024.
At La Cocina Coqui, customers stream in for their lunchtime takeout orders of plantain sandwiches and empanadillas. Many are Spanish speakers, craving the Puerto Rican-inspired dishes of owner Leida Rodriguez.
An influx of Hispanics, especially those from Puerto Rico or whose parents were born in that Caribbean territory of the United States, has helped offset Erie’s population decline in recent years.
Rodriguez said, in this election season, her customers also hunger for a president who will devour inflation.
“The cost of food. The rent is going up in here. They’re just looking at stuff like that — who would help out,” she says during a brief break from the small restaurant’s kitchen.
Democrats’ edge in voter registration and their campaign organization here would seem to give Harris the advantage, but Professor Bloodworth said that assumption may be outdated.
“Before Trump, you would look at this and go ‘The Democrats are going to win. They’re organized. They have a dozen paid staffers in a county of 200,000. That just has to be meaningful.’ Unless it’s not, because Donald Trump has kind of changed the rules of American politics.”
Democrats and Republicans in Erie County appear to agree on only one thing right now — they are on edge because of the high stakes ahead of Election Day in this must-win county in a must-win state.
