First bets: Early picks for NFL Week 8

Only one team remains undefeated after seven weeks of NFL action: the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. This week kicks off with the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Inglewood to face the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night.

The Sunday slate features a number of intriguing matchups, including the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers battling for NFC South supremacy and the Chicago Bears visiting the Washington Commanders. On Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers look to get a win after suffering losses in their last games. On Monday night Football, the Pittsburgh Steelers, led by a resurgent Russell Wilson meet the New York Giants.

Our team takes an early look at Week 8 odds to find value before lines move later in the week:

Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins

Last week: Saints-Broncos UNDER 37.5. Line closed at 37.5. Broncos won 33-10.

This game is priced as if Tua Tagovailoa will start Sunday against the Cardinals, and we aren’t 100% sure that’s the case. Even if the fifth-year quarterback does make his return, he’s at the helm of an offense predicated on timing and precision … which is also an offense he hasn’t been affiliated with for six weeks. The rust factor is big here. Now, let’s consider the alternative: Tua doesn’t return and we’re getting +3.5 against a Tim Boyle-led attack that has averaged a paltry 10 points per game since Tagovailoa was lost due to a concussion. Given the fact that “3” is the most key number when it comes to football betting, I’m comfortable jumping in now at +3.5.

Ben Solak’s first bet: Philadelphia Eagles-Cincinnati Bengals over 46.5 points

The Eagles and Bengals have shared their last two opponents — both teams have played the Browns and the Giants — and that has led both teams to look much more competent on defense than they probably are. I think the Eagles can run on Cincinnati, who still lacks the personnel of a strong run defense; I think the Bengals can throw on the Eagles, who are playing multiple rookies in their secondary. I’ll take the over here.

Seth Walder’s first bet: Buffalo Bills to win AFC East (-700)

You know what? Value is value, even at -700. FPI makes the Bills a 94% chance favorite to win this division, or a fair price of -1613. They are by far the best team in the division and are at least 2.5 games up on every other team. The Bills are the fourth-best team in football, per FPI, with arguably the league MVP thus far at quarterback. Meanwhile the Patriots are in the running for worst team in football, the Dolphins are lifeless without Tua Tagovailoa and the Jets can’t get their act together, even after acquiring Davante Adams. Buffalo is a powerhouse already well in the lead and none of its competition can take the team down.

Andre Snellings’ first bet: Denver Broncos (-7.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

Last week: Commanders (-7.5) vs. Panthers. Line closed at -10.5. Commanders won 40-7.

I’m officially in “give the points against the Panthers” mode until something significant changes. The Panthers are almost comically bad this season, on a scale that the lines don’t seem capable of keeping up with. Outside of their Week 3 win over the Raiders, the Panthers have lost all six of their other games by an average of 24.5 PPG! It’s even worse on the road, where their average loss is by 32 points and they have no losses by less than 26 points. The Broncos, meanwhile, have won four of their last five games, three of which by at least 16 points. The Broncos have arguably the best defense in the league, allowing the third-fewest yards and third-fewest points per game. The Panthers have arguably the worst offense in the league, scoring the fifth-fewest points on the fifth-fewest yards per game. This shapes up to be another blowout loss for the Panthers.

Anita Marks: Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Last week: Vikings (-2) vs. Lions. Line closed at -1.5. Lions won 31-29

The Packers are coming in with momentum after a huge win against the Houston Texans. Jordan Love is 4-1 ATS in his past five road games and has the arm to pick apart the Jaguars’ horrible secondary. Jacksonville returns home after spending two weeks in London and will have to get readjusted. The Jags are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games, and Trevor Lawrence can’t help but turn the ball over.

Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Navy (+12.5) vs. Notre Dame

Last week: Texas (-3.5) vs. Georgia. Line closed at -4.5. Georgia won 30-15.

Here’s something you don’t expect to learn on a Monday morning: The Midshipmen rank No. 1 in EPA (expected points added) per play in passing offense. Known for their run-heavy triple-option scheme, Navy has developed a surprisingly effective passing game with quarterback Blake Horvath at the helm, pushing them to No. 7 in offensive success rate. They’re consistently moving the chains and putting themselves in scoring positions. And let’s not forget, it wasn’t too long ago that the Fighting Irish lost outright to Northern Illinois, giving up 10.4 yards per pass and 190 rushing yards. This may very well be the most efficient offense Notre Dame has faced this season.