2024 Election Forecast: Trump Gaining Ground Amid Rising Momentum
As the 2024 election approaches, all eyes are on the rising tide of support for former President Donald Trump.
According to the latest data from Polymarket, Trump is rapidly closing the gap, with his chances now sitting at an impressive 49%—just two points shy of Vice President Kamala Harris. The swing states, traditionally the battleground for any presidential election, are showing strong signs that Trump may dominate key regions. In Arizona, Trump leads Harris with a 65% likelihood to claim the state’s 11 electoral votes. Georgia and Pennsylvania are also tilting toward Trump, at 60% and 49% respectively.
Trump’s success in the swing states is crucial for his return to the White House. With momentum building in pivotal areas, the election may hinge on states like Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona, all of which Trump is either leading or closing the gap. Polymarket data also suggests that Trump is set to gain more support from Black voters in 2024, with a staggering 75% probability. This marks a significant shift in voter demographics, potentially altering the outcome in critical states.
Not only does Trump’s re-election bid look strong, but Republicans are also poised to reclaim power in Congress. Polymarket’s forecast shows a 75% chance of Republicans taking control of the Senate and a 63% likelihood for the House. This could pave the way for a Republican sweep of the presidency, Senate, and House, currently standing at 28%. Speculation continues about Joe Biden’s political future as well, with a 3% probability of him resigning before the election, raising further questions about the Democratic Party’s strategy.
Vice President Kamala Harris has been setting her sights on the southern border, aiming to confront criticisms over border security—an area where polls suggest she lags behind former President Trump. Harris’s visit to the border marks a shift as she sharpens her narrative on immigration, directly challenging Trump’s policies and their impacts. Just earlier today, acting ICE Director Patrick Lechleitner revealed that over 13,000 noncitizens with murder convictions are currently living in the U.S. after crossing the border under the Biden-Harris administration. The revelation also disclosed that over 15,800 noncitizens convicted of sexual assault are similarly free. In total, ICE is tracking 662,566 noncitizens with criminal records, including 435,719 convicted criminals.
Maintaining his schedule, Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York. “We have a very good relationship. I also have a very good relationship with President Putin and you know, I think if we win we’re going to get it resolved very quickly,” Trump said on Friday. “We can work out something that’s good for both sides, it’s time. And by the way, the president wants to get something done, he doesn’t want to do this,” Trump said later in the day while standing next to the Ukrainian leader. Trump also added that “it takes two to tango.”
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Later today, Trump will campaign in Michigan, engaging with voters in a state crucial for breaking through the Democratic stronghold. His focus on “blue wall” states could hinder Harris’s campaign efforts there. As the days count down, Trump’s resurgence is becoming impossible to ignore. With a formidable presence in swing states and a strong possibility of swaying key voting blocs, Trump appears to be setting the stage for a major political comeback in 2024. The path forward is uncertain, but Trump’s rising momentum has many wondering if the former president will return to the Oval Office in 2024.