Eight seasons in the wilderness: How the Broncos fell into the NFL cellar and what comes next
ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — When the confetti floated to the ground at Levi’s Stadium after the Denver Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 victory, it capped a season that resulted in their eighth Super Bowl appearance and third championship.
The Broncos finished that 2015 season with a fifth consecutive AFC West title, winning 50 regular-season games and going to two Super Bowls over a four-year span. Those four seasons served as the cherry on top of nearly four decades of success.
Little did the Broncos or their fans know that following that joyous February evening in 2016, football karma, broken-mirror luck and ill-fated decisions awaited them. The Broncos haven’t made the playoffs in the eight seasons since that Super Bowl title, the franchise’s longest drought since its formative years, when it missed the postseason in its first 17 seasons of existence before breaking through in 1977.
“There are some, maybe, sins of the past that we can’t control with this team,” Broncos coach Sean Payton said as he prepares to enter his second season in Denver. “I think one of the attractions to this job though was the tradition and the success organizationally over the years.”
To get to Payton, the Broncos have cycled through coaches, quarterbacks and even owners. They have tried, rejected and retried ideas, spent piles of money and churned through hundreds of players. And they continue to face daunting issues, including the tightest of salary caps the next two seasons — thanks to the $85 million in dead money to part ways with quarterback Russell Wilson this past spring.
“Just with the history of the organization, it’s hard to see,” said former Broncos quarterback Jake Plummer, who led Denver to a playoff win in 2005. “I mean, I was with the Cardinals before I got here and I played in a playoff win that was their first playoff win in like 50 years, so maybe my perspective is different and that’s real misery.”
How did the Broncos go from one of the most successful franchises in the NFL to the second-longest playoff drought, a dry spell many expect to continue this season? After talking to more than two dozen sources with long-standing ties to the organization, we identified the most influential moments since the Super Bowl 50 title that have placed the Broncos — who open the 2024 season Sunday at the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS) — in their current state.
March 7, 2016: Peyton Manning retires
In many ways, the Broncos’ drought clock started ticking the day Manning read a 13-minute collection of memories, stories and thank yous to announce his retirement.
“I fought the good fight, I’ve finished my football race and after 18 years, it’s time,” Manning said that day.
The Broncos made their first move to replace the eventual Hall of Famer nearly two months later, trading up six spots to select Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch with the No. 26 pick in the 2016 draft. But Lynch, one of 13 quarterbacks who have started a game under center (along with one running back; more on that later) since Manning finished his Hall of Fame career, didn’t solve the riddle.
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Peyton Manning: It felt like the right time
Peyton Manning speaks to Marty Smith about his decision to retire and winning the Super Bowl in his final season.
In fact, he didn’t even win the starting job. Trevor Siemian — a 2015 seventh-round pick — became the first QB1 of the post-Manning era, beating out Lynch and veteran Mark Sanchez (whom the Broncos had traded for during that offseason). Then-Broncos coach Gary Kubiak announced the decision by saying, “I believe in Trevor and what he can do.” In many ways, it was the first card in a stack of frustration for the Broncos, given a large segment of the people inside and outside the Broncos complex wanted Lynch to win the job.
Despite his own injuries, coaching changes and a lack of consistent offensive production as a starter, Siemian remains the last quarterback to guide the Broncos to a winning record, going 13-11 in games he started. The quarterback dilemma has vexed the franchise since then.
Even Hall of Fame quarterback John Elway, who always said he knew exactly what he wanted in a quarterback during his time as an executive from 2011 to ’20, could not find that next guy. Repeated dips into the draft and free agency did not yield a long-term solution, as the Broncos sit 30th in the NFL in QBR since 2016 (43.3).
Jan. 2, 2017: A tearful Kubiak says goodbye
Broncos’ record post-Manning: 9-7
Kubiak had performed coaching wizardry on the way to the Super Bowl 50 win, getting the Broncos over the top despite an injured and limited Manning. But a health scare during the 2016 season — he was taken from the stadium by ambulance with severe flu-like symptoms after an October loss to the Atlanta Falcons — forced him away from the team.
The day after the Broncos missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010, a tearful Kubiak sat in the team meeting room and said it was time for him “to step away from coaching.”
Manning’s retirement may have knocked the Broncos’ organization off balance, but Kubiak’s departure also had a huge long-term impact. Long-time Broncos employees often point to his departure as one of the biggest dominoes to fall, along with former owner Pat Bowlen’s onset of Alzheimer’s and subsequent declining health.
Kubiak was a Broncos mainstay, rotating in and out of the organization for more than three decades as Elway’s backup quarterback and an assistant on Mike Shanahan’s Super Bowl-winning teams in the late 1990s before becoming the head coach. His ability to lead with compassion and loyalty to the franchise made him “very important to us,” according to Bowlen.
The loss of Kubiak, coupled with the beginning of the end of the Bowlen family’s ownership — Bowlen stepped away from day-to-day operation of the team prior to the 2014 season and died in 2019 — was costly. And much of what made the Broncos the Broncos was slipping away. Since Kubiak stepped down, the Broncos have had four coaches and one interim coach in seven seasons, most recently trading a first-round pick to the New Orleans Saints in January 2023 so they could hire Payton.
April 26, 2018: Elway passes on drafting a star QB
Record post-Manning: 14-18
After going 5-11 in 2017, the Broncos had the No. 5 pick in the 2018 draft. Their coaching staff was at the Senior Bowl that January and got to work with Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield and Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen.
In April’s draft, Mayfield went No. 1 to the Cleveland Browns and was followed by Penn State running back Saquon Barkley (Giants), USC quarterback Sam Darnold (Jets) and Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward (Browns again). That left the Broncos in position to pick Allen. But Denver selected NC State edge rusher Bradley Chubb instead with the hope that either Lynch could still develop into its starting quarterback or that it could find a veteran in free agency who could get the Broncos back to the playoffs quicker.
Chubb played well when healthy for the Broncos, racking up 26 sacks in four and a half seasons. But he also missed 12 games in 2019 and another nine in 2021 with injuries before being shipped to the Miami Dolphins at the 2022 trade deadline for draft picks.
Meanwhile, Allen was drafted by the Buffalo Bills at No. 7 and has turned into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, leading the Bills to five consecutive playoff berths and four straight AFC East titles. After years of deflecting the question, Elway appeared on a “Pardon My Take” podcast last month and said passing on Allen was “probably my biggest mistake of my GM career.”
As for Lynch, whatever patience the Broncos had on draft day ran out by September, and he didn’t make it to his third season after a lackluster training camp and preseason. He never appeared in another NFL game. The Broncos then went 6-10 in 2018 with Case Keenum under center, resulting in the firing of coach Vance Joseph.
“We always hear about the Allen deal,” one former Broncos coach who is no longer with the team said this summer. “But you look at how things went with [Lynch], how coaches came and went, you tell me Allen or anybody else would have gotten three years to figure that s— out. I don’t buy it. I get it, but I don’t buy it, still don’t. He would have been on his third offensive coordinator after three years.
“[Denver] is one of the best places you can work in this league, but it isn’t patient.”
Dec. 15, 2019: Losing breaks star pass rusher Von Miller
Record post-Manning: 25-37
Miller, a potential future Hall of Famer whom Elway selected with the No. 2 pick in 2011, was one of the franchise’s cornerstone players and was the MVP of Super Bowl 50. And when things turned toward mediocrity after the Manning era, he made it his mission to keep a positive attitude.
“It kept me going, I kept thinking we’re going to get back to where we were,” he said recently. He continued to perform at an All-Pro level, racking up a combined 38 sacks from 2016 to ’18. But then came a 23-3 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs late in 2019 that guaranteed a third conservative losing season and fourth consecutive playoff miss. Miller’s spirit officially broke, as he called it “defeating” after the game.
“Man, that night, it just hit me all at once,” he recalled in an interview last year.
A tearful Miller said goodbye to the Broncos at the 2021 trade deadline, when he was sent to the Los Angeles Rams for draft picks. He returned to the playoffs with Los Angeles, playing a key part on a defense that helped the Rams win Super Bowl LVI that February. The trade marked the departure of the last star of that Broncos Super Bowl team, signaling another level of roster rebuild.
Nov. 28, 2020: The game without a quarterback
Record post-Manning: 31-44
The 2020 season was already off the rails heading into a Week 12 home matchup with the Saints. But that 31-3 loss was arguably the lowest point of the drought. With quarterback Jeff Driskel already on the team’s reserve/COVID-19 list, three more Broncos QBs — Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles — were deemed high-risk close contacts and pulled off the practice field the day before the game. The three were discovered to have not worn masks at one point during contact with Driskel, team sources told ESPN at the time, making them unavailable.
Wide receiver Kendall Hinton, a former college quarterback, took 24 of the Broncos’ 43 snaps behind center, with running backs Phillip Lindsay — who actually started the game at QB — and Royce Freeman also running Wildcat formations. The Broncos finished with 12 net yards passing and 112 yards overall. In the locker room after the game and in the days that followed, players privately wondered about leadership at the QB position and the franchise’s direction.
“I’m still pissed a little,” a player from the 2020 team said at the beginning of training camp. “Those were the quarterbacks and everybody else was doing what they were supposed to. Just showed you where we were.”
Jan. 27, 2022: Broncos hire Nathaniel Hackett but fire him before season’s end
Post-Manning record: 43-69
The Broncos flirted with the playoffs in 2021, going 7-6 before a four-game losing streak ended their postseason hopes and got coach Vic Fangio fired. After interviewing 10 candidates, the Broncos hired Hackett, the Green Bay Packers’ offensive coordinator, as Fangio’s replacement. Hackett’s hire started a tsunami of Aaron Rodgers-to-Denver rumors. That of course didn’t play out, as the Broncos instead traded with the Seahawks for Wilson, but Hackett promised to set him loose in the offense and said it would be fun for the Broncos “to come to work.”
His enthusiasm was initially a big hit with the players — but those smiles didn’t last long. Things were off immediately, starting with Hackett’s curious Week 1 decision against the Seahawks to let precious seconds evaporate off the clock to set up a 64-yard game-winning field goal attempt instead of letting Wilson try to convert a fourth-and-5 for a more makeable kick. Brandon McManus missed, sealing a 17-16 loss to the team they had just sent five draft picks and three players to in order to acquire Wilson.
It continued to go downhill from there, culminating in Hackett getting fired less than 24 hours after an ugly 51-14 Christmas Day loss to the Rams at SoFi Stadium. Hackett lasted 15 games, the shortest term of any non-interim coach in franchise history, finishing with a 4-11 record. His team averaged 15.5 points per game, Denver’s worst offensive performance since 1966.
“Obviously, the X’s and O’s are important, but we need a strong leader for this organization that’s focused on winning,” owner Greg Penner said after relieving Hackett.
Payton was hired after the Broncos traded a first-rounder for his rights, and Penner made him one of the highest-paid coaches in the league thanks to his offensive acumen and 10 winning seasons with the Saints, including the Super Bowl XLIV title after the 2009 season. But even Payton couldn’t immediately make the team’s offensive issues disappear.
Post-Manning record: 52-79
The Broncos made the biggest, most expensive post-Manning quarterback move on March 8, 2022, agreeing to a blockbuster trade for Wilson. The Broncos sent the Seahawks two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick as well as quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant and defensive end Shelby Harris.
“My goal is to play 10 or 12 more years and hopefully win three or four more Super Bowls,” Wilson said in his introductory news conference eight days later. “That’s the plan. That’s the mindset.”
Before the season began, the Broncos and Wilson’s representatives agreed to a five-year, $245 million contract extension. It was meant to solidify Wilson’s place as Denver’s next franchise quarterback, but the cost of that contract, along with the draft capital it gave up in the trade, severely limited the team’s ability to build the roster.
Denver did not have a pick in the top 60 of the 2022 and 2023 drafts, the product of the Wilson and Payton trades. And Wilson’s on-field production didn’t warrant the price the Broncos paid. After a disastrous 2022 with Hackett in which he finished 27th in the NFL in QBR (38.7), Wilson played 15 games under Payton in 2023. But with the Broncos at 7-8 and about to miss the playoffs again, Payton made the franchise-shaking decision to bench Wilson with two games remaining.
The Broncos announced his release just before the start of the new 2024 league year. Wilson’s two-year run with the Broncos ended with no playoff appearances, much less the “three or four more Super Bowls.” Denver was 11-19 in his starts spanning three coaches (Hackett, Payton and interim coach Jerry Rosburg).
In releasing him, the Broncos took the biggest dead money hit — $85 million spread over two seasons, with $53 million this season — in NFL history. The resulting salary-cap squeeze forced the Broncos to release All-Pro safety Justin Simmons in the offseason, trade starting receiver Jerry Jeudy to the Browns and take a passive approach to free agency. And when the Broncos cut the roster to 53 players last week, they had 20 players with two or fewer seasons of experience.
“I said this was going to be a critical offseason and it’s obviously too early to declare success, but I’ve really been impressed with what Sean and [general manager] George [Paton] have done in the offseason,” Penner said. “… It’s a young team, but I’ve got high expectations of what we can accomplish.”
What’s next on the road back?
All of this has led to Bo Nix. Payton named this year’s No. 12 draft pick the starting quarterback on Aug. 21, making him the first rookie signal-caller to start a Broncos season opener since Elway in 1983. From the moment Nix stepped into the building, Payton seemed intent on naming him the starter, as he repeatedly lauded Nix’s poise, maturity, accuracy and arm strength.
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Why Bo Nix is ‘perfect’ for Sean Payton
Dan Orlovsky and Damien Woody discuss why Bo Nix is a great quarterback fit for the Denver Broncos and head coach Sean Payton.
Sunday starts the 65th season of Broncos football. Payton says he likes the 2024 roster, infused with youth in part due to the Wilson-induced salary cap squeeze, and his quarterback room with Nix as the leader.
“I would say, if you just took this roster and then you went back to Year 1 after the last Super Bowl, Year 2, Year 3, it would take a while before you found on this team someone that, ‘Oh, he was [on that team],'” Payton said. “… These guys have a chance to just write their chapter in a pretty good book.
“They really can’t pay attention to the prior six chapters.”